TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COLD WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 05, 2014…11:20 A.M. EST

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations and close in views

YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED…

Your donation helps keep this site operational.  Funds assist in web hosting, weather software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.)  Your help is appreciated.

Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

I really have no change to the forecast synopsis.  The area north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is associated with a trof of low pressure.  In fact, albeit a surface low could briefly form, this is caught up in a TUTT axis.  The current wind shear map indicates this, and the wind shear forecast indicates upper level shear will remain non conducive for development of any tropical system.  This area is forecast to continue toward the NE to NNE, becoming phased with a frontal boundary, so I am looking for this to remain baroclinic in nature.  The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) chance of development over the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, looking for temperatures to dip again over most of the U.S. by Friday, although nothing majorly frigid.  Another cold blast is still in the works, at around 10 days out from now, and is supported by both the GFS and ECMWF.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFS FORECAST STATION VALUES
GFSSTATION

ECMWF 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ECMWF

Due to my changing work schedule, I will keep tabs on things as I can, and will update accordingly.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COLD WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 05, 2014…11:20 A.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I echo TexasHurricane…thank you Senior Chief!! This is crazy…former Super Typhoon Nuri could usher cold Canadian air into the Cent US next week. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of this before. Any thoughts Storm?

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm! Do appreciate your time and updates.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s