TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COLD WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED 11:15 EST…NOV. 03, 2014

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations and close in views

YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED…

Your donation helps keep this site operational.  Funds assist in web hosting, weather software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.)  Your help is appreciated.

Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

Absolutely nothing happening in the tropics this morning. Analysis of Global models doesn’t show anything developing over the next 2 weeks.  GFS insists on a weak low developing north of the Hispaniola/Puerto Rico area in a few days which could be possible at the tail end of the front seen in satellite imagery, however this would be noting more than a baroclinic low moving NEWD.

ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Elsewhere, expect freezing to below freezing temperatures over most of the U.S. by this Saturday.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

In addition, albeit this is 10 days out, we are looking at some very frigid minimum temperatures coming down from Canada according to the current GFS solution.  The “freezing line” is noted as the bold, blue line on the map.

GFS 240 HOUR SOLUTION FROM 06Z
GFS1

Since this is 10 days out…I will be updating periodically on this.

It appears as if the El Nino that has been predicted to happen over the past 6 months (lol) may be taking shape, as sst anomalies have warmed in the Equatorial EPAC.  When I get the time, I’ll try to pick out some analogs, as well as winter effects of El Nino on the U.S., and will place them in a future update.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALIES

Being this quiet right now, only thing I can say is…STAY WARM, and have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COLD WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED 11:15 EST…NOV. 03, 2014

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. I see on some of the weather blogs that there is a very intense Extra-tropical low out in the Northern Pacific, which is headed for Western and SW Alaska. It is extremely “deep” and large, with a central pressure of about 910-915mb. Could that influence our weather down here in the lower 48, eventually?

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Hi Storm, form what I have read, we (SE TX) should have a colder wetter winter. What is your thoughts on that? Think we could have some snow this year?

    • I’ll know more once I get to look at and compare some analog years as to the Oceanic Nino Index, and how strong of an El Nino is forecast. For the most part, I would expect conditions to mimic whatever you’re area in SE TX get during El Nino winters, although this year has been difficult, with the teleconnection still not present.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. We almost had our first snow of season. HA…wet bulb zero reading put SL at about 7000 ft…a little too high. Not looking forward to El Nino Winter.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s