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UPDATE…11:15 A.M. EDT: The vorticity area over the northern Honduras area was just designated INVEST 96L.
Good day everyone!
Tropical Storm HANNA dissipated(?) over land yesterday evening. However, based on my analysis of current satellite loop imagery over the past few hours, and the current 925 mb vorticity map, this feature may try to pop again for a brief moment, before moving over the Yucatan peninsula.
(Just for clarification, OFFICIALLY, the center of HANNA dissipated yesterday evening over the Honduras/Nicaragua area). However I do have some reservation on this, upon going back and following lower level vorticity over the past 24 hours.
The current wind shear profile shows deep layer shear at about 25 knots, however mid layer shear is 5 knots or less over the vorticity area.
The upper level wind profile does indicate an outflow channel to the north, and around toward the east.
There could be a “brief”regeneration of this. I will monitor the area for any significant changes in steering and wind shear. Looking at satellite imagery as far as organization, there could be heavy rain for areas of the Yucatan peninsula in the forecast.
Analysis of satellite loop imagery and current steering, indicate this to be moving to the west, and later this evening, we COULD see a more WNW motion. Right now , based on forecast steering, there COULD be slim chance this winds up back where it originated…in the extreme southern BOC…however the flow is forecast to be split, and the two distinct motions will be a continued west motion until final dissipation, or a motion into the BOC, before steering comes out of the north in about 30-36 hours, which would shunt it south. Regardless, wind shear is forecast to increase to levels non conducive for development by then.
Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather that has been east of the Lesser Antilles was designated INVEST 95L. Analysis of current and forecast wind shear products suggests this could shows signs of slow development during the next 24 – 30 hours, before upper level winds become non conducive for development.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)