TROPICAL STORM HANNA REMNANTS / INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 28, 2014…10:35 A.M. EDT

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UPDATE…11:15 A.M. EDT:  The vorticity area over the northern Honduras area was just designated INVEST 96L.

Good day everyone!

Tropical Storm HANNA dissipated(?) over land yesterday evening.  However, based on my analysis of current satellite loop imagery over the past few hours, and the current 925 mb vorticity map, this feature may try to pop again for a brief moment, before moving over the Yucatan peninsula.

(Just for clarification, OFFICIALLY, the center of HANNA dissipated yesterday evening over the Honduras/Nicaragua area).  However I do have some reservation on this, upon going back and following lower level vorticity over the past 24 hours.

HANNA FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The current wind shear profile shows deep layer shear at about 25 knots, however mid layer shear is 5 knots or less over the vorticity area.

MID LAYER SHEAR

The upper level wind profile does indicate an outflow channel to the north, and around toward the east. 


There could be a “brief”regeneration of this. I will monitor the area for any significant changes in steering and wind shear.  Looking at satellite imagery as far as organization, there could be heavy rain for areas of the Yucatan peninsula in the forecast.

Analysis of satellite loop imagery and current steering, indicate this to be moving to the west, and later this evening, we COULD see a more WNW motion.  Right now , based on forecast steering, there COULD be slim chance this winds up back where it originated…in the extreme southern BOC…however the flow is forecast to be split, and the two distinct motions will be a continued west motion until final dissipation, or a motion into the BOC, before steering comes out of the north in about 30-36 hours, which would shunt it south.  Regardless, wind shear is forecast to increase to levels non conducive for development by then.

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather that has been east of the Lesser Antilles was designated INVEST 95L.  Analysis of current and forecast wind shear products suggests this could shows signs of slow development during the next 24 – 30 hours, before upper level winds become non conducive for development.

INVEST 95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL STORM HANNA REMNANTS / INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 28, 2014…10:35 A.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thanks for the excellent report, Storm. I am hoping our back-weighted season is coming to a close, but the way the past few seasons have gone, I won’t be surprised to hear about a Thanksgiving hurricane! Prayers to anyone in the path of Hanna or her eventual remnants. Even “minor” tropical events can bring a lot of water. God bless you and yours, Storm.

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