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Good morning everyone!
The NHC has just upgraded INVEST 94L to Tropical Storm HANNA. As of the initial advisory issued at 9:00 a.m. EDT, the following information was provided on HANNA:
Location: 14.5°N 83.2°W
Moving: WSW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph
Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, and current satellite motion, I feel the initial motion is to the west. Based on forecast steering however, I have to concur with the NHC forecast track. Initial analysis of the forecast steering may have suggested a tug toward the north, for a WNW motion in about 18 hours. However close examination did show that where the center is located, the ridge should provide blocking toward the north, with the storm heading for a weakness to its SW.
Analysis of the current and forecast wind shear products indicate upper level winds should remain conducive, and HANNA should maintain her current intensity until landfall in about 1 – 2 hours.
The following information from the NHC points out the hazards to be expected over Nicaragua and Honduras over the next 24-36 hours:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
This will most likely be my final update on this system, as I am not able to be be back on until tomorrow.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)