TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 27, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT FROM WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good morning everyone!

The NHC has just upgraded INVEST 94L to Tropical Storm HANNA.  As of the initial advisory issued at 9:00 a.m. EDT, the following information was provided on HANNA:

Location: 14.5°N 83.2°W
Moving: WSW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph

Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, and current satellite motion, I feel the initial motion is to the west.  Based on forecast steering however, I have to concur with the NHC forecast track.  Initial analysis of the forecast steering may have suggested a tug toward the north, for a WNW motion in about 18 hours.  However close examination did show that where the center is located, the ridge should provide blocking toward the north, with the storm heading for a weakness to its SW.

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAP
HANNA

HANNA FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the current and forecast wind shear products indicate upper level winds should remain conducive, and HANNA should maintain her current intensity until landfall in about 1 – 2 hours.

The following information from the NHC points out the hazards to be expected over Nicaragua and Honduras over the next 24-36 hours:

NHC WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA.  THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

This will most likely be my final update on this system, as I am not able to be be back on until tomorrow.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 27, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT FROM WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hell…with the way this things going…over sea…over land…tropical cyclone…tropical nothing…maybe she can wipe out at at
    least half the Tropical Alphabet.LOL

  2. originallt says:

    Yeah, unpredictable Greg, but I think Storm was on this pretty good.

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm this went from remant of td9to tropical Storm wow that what I call unpredictable.

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