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Good day everyone!
INVEST 94L is currently located east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border. As of the 18Z ATCF tracking data, the following was available on INVEST 94L:
MAX SUSTAINED WIND; 35 MPH
MOVEMENT: S @ 6 MPH
PRESSURE: 1007 MB / 29.74 IN.
Satellite loop imagery shows a slight increase in convection, and the last few frames may indicate the INVEST has become slightly better organized.
I am trying to figure out what the NHC outlook is speaking of as far as unfavorable upper level winds, unless it is in regard to the current shear forecast. Currently, there is an established upper level anticyclone over the INVEST, and the wind shear forecast shows this remaining with the system for the next 24 hours, at least. Based on this, I expect further slow organization of INVEST 94L, prior to upper level winds becoming non conducive by Tuesday.
Based on the motion of the system over the past 12 hours, from 06Z to 18Z, the INVEST is moving slowly to the S at 6 mph. Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, I expect this motion to continue through tonight, with more of a westward motion beginning sometime on Monday. Shortly after, more of a WNW track is depicted, and the INVEST should be on land in about the next 36-48 hours, and this is projected by the current ATCF Dynamic Model track guidance. Putting all of this together, I am not looking for anything significant from this, unless there are drastic changes to the steering flow and wind shear forecast. Regardless of development, this could produce heavy rainfall over areas of northern Honduras and over portions of the Yucatan peninsula as it moves inland.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)