INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…OCT. 26, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

INVEST 94L is currently located east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border.  As of the 18Z ATCF tracking data, the following was available on INVEST 94L:

LOCATED: 51.4N…81.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WIND; 35 MPH
MOVEMENT: S @ 6 MPH
PRESSURE: 1007 MB / 29.74 IN.

Satellite loop imagery shows a slight increase in convection, and the last few frames may indicate the INVEST has become slightly better organized.

INVEST 94L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

I am trying to figure out what the NHC outlook is speaking of as far as unfavorable upper level winds, unless it is in regard to the current shear forecast.  Currently, there is an established upper level anticyclone over the INVEST, and the wind shear forecast shows this remaining with the system for the next 24 hours, at least.  Based on this, I expect further slow organization of INVEST 94L, prior to upper level winds becoming non conducive by Tuesday.

CURRENT SHEAR MAP FROM CIMSS

Based on the motion of the system over the past 12 hours, from 06Z to 18Z, the INVEST is moving slowly to the S at 6 mph.  Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, I expect this motion to continue through tonight, with more of a westward motion beginning sometime on Monday.  Shortly after, more of a WNW track is depicted, and the INVEST should be on land in about the next 36-48 hours, and this is projected by the current ATCF Dynamic Model track guidance.  Putting all of this together, I am not looking for anything significant from this, unless there are drastic changes to the steering flow and wind shear forecast.  Regardless of development, this could produce heavy rainfall over areas of northern Honduras and over portions of the Yucatan peninsula as it moves inland.

ATCF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
94L DYNAMIC


Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…OCT. 26, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm this hurricane season getting weirder and weider and ifs that not enough do you think winter will be weirder?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Echoing PortABeachBum. What the hell is this thing up to? May it makes up its mind by mid November?? HA

  3. PortABeachBum says:

    Is this going to be one of thos weirdos that does a Figure 8 out there before it decides which way it wants to go?

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