INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…OCT 24, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day to everyone!

The remnant of Tropical Depression NINE was designated INVEST 94L yesterday.Based on information from the ATCF guidance product, the following information was available at 12Z on 94L:

LOCATED: 18.4N…87.5W
MAX WIND: 25 MPH
MOVEMENT: NE 9 MPH
PRESSURE: 1007 MB / 29.74 IN

Based on the motion over the past 12 hours, a slow NE motion is occurring.

Satellite loop imagery shows a small, somewhat sheared system, with convection located just to the east of the “center” of the INVEST.  The center will be moving over water within the next few hours.

INVEST 94L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Deep layer shear at the moment indicates about 20 kts of wind shear from the SSW, which would be non conducive for development.  I do concur with the NHC in this has a very slim chance at regeneration, however it may take a shot prior to dry air intruding from the north, as analysis of the mid level wind shear map shows mid level shear to be non existent as of 12Z this morning.

CIMSS MID LEVEL SHEAR MAP

Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, the track on this is going to be one of two ways…94L will either be absorbed by the current stationary front and trof axis across the area, and continue off to the NE, or it will meander, as steering is currently weak in the area, and begin to head back toward the Yucatan peninsula in a few days as a ridge, with a flow oriented SSE to WNW builds north of the area.  The second solution appears to be what the dynamic guidance suggests at the moment.  The only guidance available was from the consensus models, which are generally the most accurate as far as track guidance.

12Z ATCF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
94L DYNAMIC


Even if this occurs, the current wind shear forecast indicates an increase in wind shear over the area over the next 24 hours.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Although regeneration is not expected, I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes to the environment over the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…OCT 24, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Back to the norm I guess. EPACs not taking a break. Strange how two bodies of water so close…but yet so far.

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm those gulf waters have been untouched this season. With high pressures building in would that make wind shear relax and allow the system to move toward the gulf?

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