TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NOW REMNANT / OFFSHORE LOW MID ATLANTIC REGION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT…OCT. 23, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER CENTER

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Good day everyone!

The NHC issued its final advisory on Tropical Depression NINE yesterday evening.

NHC TRACKING MAP

The depression has moved inland, and should by now be a remnant low.  This low is forecast o continue to move toward the ESE, and eventually east and emerge into the W. Caribbean.  Based on my analysis of satellite loop imagery and current wind shear forecast, I have to concur with the NHC in that any chance of regeneration of this system is pretty slim, due to an increase in wind shear over the next couple of days, and the premise of drier air sweeping into the area.  I will be monitoring the area for any significant changes over the next 48 hours.  Global models have now backed off yesterdays solution of another cyclone developing in the Gulf of Honduras / W. Caribbean area.

GOMEX WATER VAPOR LOOP

WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Elsewhere, an offshore low is centered east of the Mid Atlantic region, and is producing winds in some locations of up to 35 knots.

EASTERN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK ON IMAGE)

The region to take the brunt of this will be the coastal areas of Maine, and the waters of the Gulf of Maine.  Projections are for sustained winds right near the coast to be around 20 – 25 knots, with winds of 30 – 35 knots just off the coast.  Surf heights are expected to be near 8 – 9 ft at the coast, and 11 – 12 ft close to the coast.  Wave heights are projected to reach 11 – 14 ft over the Gulf of Maine.  These conditions appear to be occurring now, and should begin to subside by later tonight.  Various watches and warnings have been posted by the NWS office in Portland.

WIND MODEL (CLICK ON IMAGE)

SURF MODEL

NWS WATCH AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

NWS OFFICE PORTLAND

Some coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected during the time of high tide.

There was apparently only one buoy operational around the area, which provided the following information:

NOAA BUOY 44066 (CLICK ON BUOY)

I will have another update tomorrow.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NOW REMNANT / OFFSHORE LOW MID ATLANTIC REGION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT…OCT. 23, 2014…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Wow Storm. I’m surprised the NHC forecast discussion doesn’t read it like Charlie Browns teacher. Bwaa…bwa…bwabwa…bwaa…bwabwa…bwaaaauuu. Oh well…whatever.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. We here in Sw CT. escaped the worst of this storm. Heavy rain fell in NJ, The Hudson Valley, NW CT. and a lot of Mass. As well as The Maine coast and N.H. coasts. The heaviest bands of precip. continued to rotate to my N, NW, W. and SW. My precip. totals so far, 0.78″, maybe getting a little more. Lowest the Barometer got down to was 29.66″ Temps. have hovered around 50F for the most part. Highest winds were about 30-35mph. in gusts.

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