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Good day everyone!
During analysis this morning, it was noted that the NOAA satellite pages were down and had not updated since Monday. Most of the NCEP products were not update as well, which the combination of this took out some forecast tools for me this morning, so information is somewhat scant in this synopsis.
INVEST 93L in the BOC was upgraded to Tropical Depression NINE yesterday evening. Based on what satellite images were available today, the area did appear to warrant the upgrade. However, based on recent satellite loop imagery from the PSU e-WALL Electronic Map Wall site, the depression appears to have been blasted by westerly wind shear.
As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Depression NINE:
7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 22
Location: 19.4°N 92.4°W
Min pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
The depression is currently encountering wind shear from the west, of around 20 – 30 knots. This is evident by looking at the cloud structure in the satellite imagery.
Based on the current wind shear forecast, upper level winds may become more conducive within the next 24 – 30 hours, and the premise of some slight strengthening as per the NHC forecast discussion seems reasonable. However, based on lousy satellite loop imagery, I’ll have to see what the Hurricane Hunter aircraft report as far as where the center location is, and what actual strength of the system is. My take right now, based strictly off satellite loop imagery, is that this may become a remnant low sooner than expected, which is another possibility mentioned in the forecast discussion. Vorticity at the 925 mb level still indicates the main area of low pressure is still in the BOC, however I am going to also be monitoring the area of convection that has been blown into the W. Caribbean sea.
The depression is currently stationary, and I expect this to continue for most of today, with an eastward motion to begin by late tonight or sometime in the a.m., and then taking on more of an ESE motion in about 36 – 48 hours. Based on the current forecast steering maps, I have to concur at the moment with the 12Z Dynamic Model track guidance, going with the consensus models TVCN, TV15, TVCC, and TVCE which have pretty much performed flawlessly this season.
12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
Now (don’t ya hate it when I say that?), as I have mentioned in my previous forecasts, this may merge with a front, and models have been indicating a split of this area, as far as energy. We have the CMC which dissipates this, but then redevelops a low just north of Cuba, and carries it to the NE. Analysis of the Global Models this morning indicates this may be an outlier solution, but it’s difficult to say with the way the models have been pretty much split all season, and with the GFS developing ghost storms. However, I’ll start with the supposedly more accurate ECMWF. This model really doesn’t take an interest in what is left of T.D.9, however after becoming a remnant, this model does indicate a small, and weak low in the W. Caribbean, and shows a possible NW track.
The GFS goes pretty much full tilt and brings a tropical storm over central Florida. This begins as a piece of the depression that stays behind near the Yucatan Channel.
The NAVGEM is a little slower in its solution, but also brings a Tropical Storm into the GOMEX in 180 hours.
The most recent 1000 mb – 500 mb maps show this, and is also indicated in the HFIP products.
Any other time, if the models had been performing better during the course of the season, I would say the prob. of this would be fairly low, however one item in the analysis sticks in my mind…if you look closely at the Dynamic Model track guidance, by the end of the 120 hour period, the “track” for what may be left of the depression, turns toward the north, not crossing Cuba as indicated by the CMC model.
I will continue to monitor this situation closely, based on the uncertainty of model accuracy at the moment. I will not have another update until tomorrow.
Elsewhere, an offshore “Nor’easter” is in the makes, with models differing on how close it will track to the U.S. Mid Atlantic and NE areas.
However, based on various wind forecasts and sea heights, the area that should be affected the most will be north of the Cape Cod area, and along the coastal regions of Maine, and into the Gulf of Maine.
Current modeling suggests sea heights near the Mid Atlantic coastal regions could become 5 – 7 ft, with sustained winds from the NNE around 20 – 25 kts, with higher winds offshore.
Along the New England coastal regions, sea heights north of the Cape Cod area, along the coastal regions of Maine, could reach 10 – 12 ft, and 13 ft over the Gulf of Maine. Sustained winds of around 25 – 30 kts could be experienced right along the coast, with winds to 34 kts or higher in the Gulf of Maine.
WAVE HEIGHT (CLICK TO ANIMATE)
Given the easterly fetch, some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion could occur in this area at the time of high tide.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)