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Good day everyone! Hope all had a great weekend!
Well, we continue with our back-weighted season, and let’s start loser to home. FINALLY, the Global Modeling got it right. An area of disturbed weather located in the extreme SW portion of the GOMEX, in the BOC has been designated INVEST 93L. As of the 12Z ATCF Guidance information, the following was available on INVEST 93L:
MOVEMENT: NE DRIFT
MAX WIND: 30 mph
PRESSURE: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
The disturbance is now in the formative stage. Analysis of current vorticity maps indicates a system that is not well established through the atmosphere at the moment, which is common of a system that has just exited land and is currently making its way into open water. At the moment, vorticity is noted at the 925 mb and 850mb levels only. The 925 mb vorticity map also indicates the “center” may be located closer to 21.0N vice 19.5N as stated, or this could be indicative of a center relocation. Right now, based on satellite loop analysis, it is hard to discern right this moment of where the strongest center is located.
Upper level winds are currently non conducive with westerly shear present at the moment, however being a very shallow system right now, the current diffluent flow aloft is allowing for an increase in upper divergence, which has increased over the past 3 hours.
Both the GFS and CMC wind shear forecasts indicate upper level winds to become somewhat conducive during the next 24-30 hours, with a small, but not optimal upper level anticyclone developing over the extreme southern BOC/Yucatan Channel area. Based on this, and close proximity to land at this time, combined with slow steering over the next 48 – 72 hours, I concur with the initial intensity in the guidance models in keeping this below Tropical Storm status.
Albeit this COULD become a Tropical Cyclone over the next couple of days, this could be more in the realm of sub-tropical, should it merge with the approaching trof.
Past motion noted in the ATCF information indicates a very slow NE drift, to quasi-stationary motion. Analysis of the current valid forecast steering layers maps, and analysis of the Global Models, indicates models to be split on forecast track at the moment. Again, with this system just becoming established, track guidance will be all over until a solid, low level circulation becomes evident. Out of the 3 most widely used models, we see the following solutions:
The GFS moves this slowly between E, to just south of east, over the next 4-5 days, then has the system becoming phased with a trof. The trof eventually turns it more to the N, and sends it north, before becoming more of an open trof.
The ECMWF pretty much does the same thing, except the ECMWF weakens and opens the low, prior to getting entangled with the trof.
Now, for a little crazy on ya…the CMC pretty much follows the GFS, however in the systems journey, the CMC dissipates this for a few hours while it meanders around near the Yucatan Channel, the re-develops it, with a final solution of being in the GOMEX, heading toward the Gulf coast.
ATCF 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
As I said, none of this can be fully taken to heart YET, until we see a developed system with a definitive low level circulation. I will have more detail once this becomes established more over the water. However, one item that will be in its favor, is the presence of forced convergence, given the shape of the landmass to its west.
I will continue to monitor this area closely, and will have another update tomorrow in the a.m. sometime.
Elsewhere, a very large Gale Center located SE of the Azores has been designated INVEST 92L. The system is currently moving toward the WNW, and this system should meander briefly, before being turned to the N, then NE over the next few days, then opening into a large trof. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph, and minimum barometric pressure is estimated at 993 mb or 29.32 in. Should this INVEST take on more definitive sub-tropical characteristics, it could become Sub-Tropical Storm HANNA.
The current radius of 45kt winds as of the 12Z report are as follows:
NE Quadrant: 150 nm, SE Quadrant: 170 nm, SW Quadrant: 180 nm, and NW Quadrant: 300 nm
This system should not pose a threat to land, expect winds and seas for the Azores over the next few days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)