TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L GOMEX / INVEST 92L EASTERN ATLANTIC FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT.20, 2014…11:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!  Hope all had a great weekend!

Well, we continue with our back-weighted season, and let’s start loser to home.  FINALLY, the Global Modeling got it right.  An area of disturbed weather located in the extreme SW portion of the GOMEX, in the BOC has been designated INVEST 93L.  As of the 12Z ATCF Guidance information, the following was available on INVEST 93L:

LOCATION: 19.5N…95.4W
MOVEMENT: NE DRIFT
MAX WIND: 30 mph
PRESSURE: 1008 mb / 29.77 in

The disturbance is now in the formative stage.  Analysis of current vorticity maps indicates a system that is not well established through the atmosphere at the moment, which is common of a system that has just exited land and is currently making its way into open water.  At the moment, vorticity is noted at the 925 mb and 850mb levels only.  The 925 mb vorticity map also indicates the “center” may be located closer to 21.0N vice 19.5N as stated, or this could be indicative of a center relocation.  Right now, based on satellite loop analysis, it is hard to discern right this moment of where the strongest center is located.

925 MB VORTICITY (LAST UPDATED MAP)

850 MB VORTICITY

Upper level winds are currently non conducive with westerly shear present at the moment, however being a very shallow system right now, the current diffluent flow aloft is allowing for an increase in upper divergence, which has increased over the past 3 hours.

Both the GFS and CMC wind shear forecasts indicate upper level winds to become somewhat conducive during the next 24-30 hours, with a small, but not optimal upper level anticyclone developing over the extreme southern BOC/Yucatan Channel area.  Based on this, and close proximity to land at this time, combined with slow steering over the next 48 – 72 hours, I concur with the initial intensity in the guidance models in keeping this below Tropical Storm status.

INVEST 93L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Albeit this COULD become a Tropical Cyclone over the next couple of days, this could be more in the realm of sub-tropical, should it merge with the approaching trof.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Past motion noted in the ATCF information indicates a very slow NE drift, to quasi-stationary motion.  Analysis of the current valid forecast steering layers maps, and analysis of the Global Models, indicates models to be split on forecast track at the moment.  Again, with this system just becoming established, track guidance will be all over until a solid, low level circulation becomes evident.  Out of the 3 most widely used models, we see the following solutions:

The GFS moves this slowly between E, to just south of east, over the next 4-5 days, then has the system becoming phased with a trof.  The trof eventually turns it more to the N, and sends it north, before becoming more of an open trof.

GFS
GFS1

The ECMWF pretty much does the same thing, except the ECMWF weakens and opens the low, prior to getting entangled with the trof.

ECMWF
ecmwf1

Now, for a little crazy on ya…the CMC pretty much follows the GFS, however in the systems journey, the CMC dissipates this for a few hours while it meanders around near the Yucatan Channel, the re-develops it, with a final solution of being in the GOMEX, heading toward the Gulf coast.

CMC
CMC1

The most recent Dynamic Track Guidance was pretty much useless, as only 2 models were run.

ATCF 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
93L DYNAMIC

As I said, none of this can be fully taken to heart YET, until we see a developed system with a definitive low level circulation.  I will have more detail once this becomes established more over the water.  However, one item that will be in its favor, is the presence of forced convergence, given the shape of the landmass to its west.

I will continue to monitor this area closely, and will have another update tomorrow in the a.m. sometime.

Elsewhere, a very large Gale Center located SE of the Azores has been designated INVEST 92L.  The system is currently moving toward the WNW, and this system should meander briefly, before being turned to the N, then NE over the next few days, then opening into a large trof.  Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph, and minimum barometric pressure is estimated at 993 mb or 29.32 in.  Should this INVEST take on more definitive sub-tropical characteristics, it could become Sub-Tropical Storm HANNA.

INVEST 92L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The current radius of 45kt winds as of the 12Z report are as follows:

NE Quadrant: 150 nm, SE Quadrant: 170 nm, SW Quadrant: 180 nm, and NW Quadrant: 300 nm

This system should not pose a threat to land, expect winds and seas for the Azores over the next few days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L GOMEX / INVEST 92L EASTERN ATLANTIC FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT.20, 2014…11:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. greg goodman says:

    Thankyou mr storm for the update .Mr storm do you think this season will end weird?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…spaghetti model map looks more like an approach pattern into KJFK. Like the gang said. You’re all over it. Waiting for next synopsis…as I’m sure NHC is as well. LOL

  3. Thanks gang! Appreciate all the posts. The 18Z Dynamic Guidance now shows the ECMWF/GFS solution

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, yeah I saw on Vis. satellite something going on in the BOC. I see you are right on it! Will be interesting , especially if anything like the CMC solution comes true.

  5. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Afternoon Master Chief,

    Again, good synopsis, I appreciate your clear and concise … logical and not having the fluff that other weather people tend to throw at the public. I vote for the GFS or ECMWF models. My take is that we in Hollywood (FL) will have have 3″ to 6″ of rain, 30-39 mph wind.

    Also if you remember 2005-2006 we had Tropical Storms winds and rain and did a lot of damage. I had no damage but the electric was out for 3 weeks+. So we shall see what happens. I will be bringing the fat lady back.

    Storm shall I fill the water level is low or do I wait.

    • dellamom says:

      I’m with you Elliot. I, too, have experience with “minimal” storms that dumped a huge amount of water and caused more damage than anyone expected, especially storms that skirted the coastline for a bit instead of coming directly ashore. Wherever this one goes, I hope it is immensely interesting to track, but does not do great harm to anyone.

  6. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Can I vote against the CMC scenario? 🙂 I appreciate your explanations and skill.

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