MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO / EATL DISTURBED WEATHER / POSSIBLE GOMEX DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 15, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

As of analysis , and the Intermediate advisory from the NHC this morning, Hurricane GONZALO is maintaining CATEGORY 3 Hurricane status with  maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.  The following information was available in the Intermediate advisory as of 8:00 a.m. EDT:

8:00 AM AST Wed Oct 15
Location: 23.1°N 67.7°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb ? 28.08 in
Max sustained: 125 mph
CATEGORY: 3

Satellite presentation on GONZALO a few hours ago showed a little larger diameter eye with fluctuations in the structure.  I agree with the NHC discussion in that is is unknown if an EWRC may be occurring or not.  The last update in microwave imagery did not indicate double concentric structure, and we will know over the next few hours if one may begin to be underway.  The last 2 – 3 frames of satellite loop imagery do indicate the eye has reduced in diameter, and the hurricane is taking on a more symmetric shape.

HURRICANE GONZALO SATELLITE FLOATER LOOP IMAGERY

CATL SATELLITE LOOP

GONZALO had been under some slight shear a few hours ago, however analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates shear has fallen to around 10 kts, and examining the streamlines, it appears the upper level anticyclone which is forecast to develop over the hurricane may be taking shape.  The recent update to the wind shear forecast does call for upper level winds to become more favorable over the course of today, and remain favorable over the next 48 hours prior to the storm moving close to the island of Bermuda.  Based on this, and given the hurricane will still be passing through an area where OCH values are greater than 60 kJ / cm-2, I am calling for additional strengthening over the next 24 hours, and concur with the NHC intensity forecast.  Should all of these parameters mentioned remain favorable during this time, I cannot rule out GONZALO peaking at a possible CAT4 briefly, save any dry air intrusion.

OHC (OCEAN HEAT CONTENT)

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  15/0900Z 22.9N  67.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 24.0N  68.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 25.5N  68.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 27.3N  68.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 29.9N  67.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 37.5N  62.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 48.5N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/0600Z 54.0N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

GONZALO has been moving to the NW, and I expect this motion to continue through today.  Soon after, as the deep layer trof gets closer, I expect GONZALO to slow his forward speed, and being a turn more toward the north.  Satellite loop images indicate GONZALO took a very brief jog more on a westerly component, as in not quite 320 degrees, and the last couple of frames suggest the center just jogged slightly north.  This is not uncommon with major hurricanes as they fluctuate slightly in strength.  The official NHC track has shifted slightly left, and inline with the dynamic model guidance from 12Z.  IF the current forecast track does not deviate, the center of the hurricane should pass to the west of Bermuda..however this places the island on the stronger side of the storm.  One note, any deviation to the right of track, would bring a major hurricane directly over the island.

HURREVAC GONZALO TRACKING PRODUCTS
HURREVAC GONZALO

HURREVAC GONZALO CLOSE

HURREVAC GONZALO WINDTAG

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
GONZALO dynamic

The following Watches / Warnings are currently in effect:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Residents of the Island of Bermuda should be making hurricane preparations at this time, and should complete these preparations as soon as possible.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

I will continue to monitor this situation for any significant changes in strength and steering over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather in the CATL which was designated as INVEST 91L has been dropped.  Satellite loop images indicate the area is now under westerly shear, and upper level winds are forecast to be non conducive for further development.

During analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning, another area of disturbed weather popped up in the EATL, south of the Cape Verde islands.  I will be monitoring this area for persistence over the next 24 hours, as upper level winds are forecast to be somewhat favorable for development over the area for the next 72 hours.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGERY

Closer to home, analysis of the global models indicates over the past 48 hours, we pretty much have a consensus that we could see some development in the extreme SE GOMEX in the BOC within the next 5 – 6 days.  The current area being watched in the EPAC is forecast by the steering layers forecast maps to move toward a NWLY direction, and in a few days, be shunted across Mexico and into the BOC.  As of this time I have no definitive solution as to possible strength or direction should this materialize, as the global models are in disagreement in strength, while steering indicates should development begin, this would meander in the BOC for about 72 – 96 hours if development initiates.  I will be monitoring this situation closely over the next 7 – 10 days.

GFS

ECMWF

CMC

I will have another complete update late tomorrow morning once again.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO / EATL DISTURBED WEATHER / POSSIBLE GOMEX DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 15, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, I hope Monty is feeling better.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the updates Storm! 🙂

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Strong prayers for the residents of Bermuda. As bad as effects are here during a hurricane, they can only be worse on an island. We just had a cold front come through and are experiencing Fall weather. Scary to think something could be knocking on the door in a week or two, especially with the warm waters off the LA/MS/AL coasts. God bless you, Storm, for the advance warning you provide those in harm’s way.

  4. Greg goodman says:

    Thank you Mr storm for the update it looks like October is busy. Mr storm could the cold fronts coming down protect my area?

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