HURRICANE GONZALO / INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 14, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day to everyone!

Hurricane GONZALO s approaching Major Hurricane Status.  One more mile per hour increase in sustained winds is all it will take.  As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on GONZALO:

8:00 AM AST Tue Oct 14
Location: 19.9°N 64.8°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb/ 28.77 in
Max sustained: 110 mph

GONZALO is a CATEGORY 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  A slight eye feature has been noticed fluctuating in satellite loop imagery over the past few hours, and the satellite presentation of GONZALO continues to slowly improve.

HURRICANE GONZALO FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

HURREVAC GONZALO TRACKING PRODUCTS
HURREVAC GONZALO

HURREVAC GONZALO WINDTAG

The current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates approximately a small field of 15 – 20 kts of wind shear over Gonzalo at the moment.  However, a certain combination of factors may be allowing the hurricane to continue slow strengthening at the moment.  Analysis of mid level shear, which would entail the 500 mb level, or approximately 18,000 – 18, 500 ft up in the atmosphere, indicates GONZALO is moving into an area where mid level shear has been decreasing.  This would allow the storm to at least build up vertically to that level.  There is also an excellent lapse rate occurring, as based on analysis of AMSU temperature profiles throughout the atmosphere, temperatures within the upper troposphere remain very cold, which will allow for thunderstorms to continue to grow.  As this continues, the release of latent heat associated with this, should allow this storm to being building an upper level anticyclone aloft, allowing for outflow channels to become established, which is forecast in the current wind shear forecast map.  The hurricane is also traversing an area with some decent OHC which will support a Major Hurricane.  The OCH values of 60+ are what is needed to sustain a Major Hurricane, and if all other factors are favorable, will aid to induce Rapid Intensification.  At the moment, I do not call for R.I. given that GONZALO has some dry air entering from the eastern side.  However, based on these factors mentioned, I do concur with the NHC intensity forecast.

MID LEVEL SHEAR PRODUCT

AMSU 100 MB AND 200 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILE

CURRENT OHC

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  14/0900Z 19.6N  64.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 21.0N  65.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 22.7N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 24.1N  68.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 25.4N  68.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 28.9N  67.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 34.5N  64.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 43.5N  56.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

Gonzalo is moving toward the NW, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 24 – 30 hours.  Analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps indicate this, and I agree with the NHC forecast track, with the exception of, based on current satellite loop images of various channels, I am inclined to be somewhat left of the official track based on current satellite motion, and I prefer the guidance of the consensus modeling which is pretty tightly clustered at this time.  Looking at the current forecast track, I would expect a Hurricane Watch to be issued for Bermuda probably tomorrow, followed by a Hurricane Warning, as GONZALO should pass slightly west of the island, which will place the island on the strong side of the hurricane.  Residents of the island should monitor the progress of GONZALO closely, AND SHOULD BEGIN GOING OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTION PLANS NOW, and be ready to implement action as soon as watches go up.

12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
GONZALO dynamic

The following Watches/Warnings are currently active:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/141240.shtml

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather in the CATL is INVEST 91L.  Based on the 12Z ATCF guidance, the following was available on this area:

Location: 15.5°N 43.0°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1011 mb/ 29.85 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

The disturbance is stationary at this time.  However, a slow drift toward the north, then NW, and back north is forecast over the next 36 hours, based on the current forecast steering layers maps.  Eventually, this is turned back toward the NE and away from any land areas.

INVEST 91L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Upper level winds at the moment are somewhat conducive for slow development.  However, based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development in about 48 hours.

I will continue to monitor both systems, and will not have another update until tomorrow around this same time.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to HURRICANE GONZALO / INVEST 91L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 14, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    No, it’s thank you, Storm!—Look out Bermuda!

  2. Thanks gang, for all the wonderful comments!

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