TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED BY WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER…OCT, 13, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT

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SPECIAL UPDATE…11:00 A.M. EDT…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 61.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MARTIN...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MAARTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

Good day everyone! 

I am still watching the disturbed area in the EATL, however nothing imminent nor organized.  All focus will be shifted to Tropical Storm GONZALO.

Tropical Storm GONZALO continue to move toward the west, or just north of due west at around 280 degrees true.  As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on GONZALO:

8:00 AM AST Mon Oct 13
Location: 17.0°N 61.5°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb / 29.32 in
Max sustained: 60 mph

Satellite loop imagery this morning indicated GONZALO has a better satellite representation, and has become more symmetric over the past few hours.  Albeit some mid level dry air has been hindering a more steady rate of development, it now appears that GONZALO may be developing a CDO (Central Dense Overcast), which would signify some intensification.

GONZALO FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates upper level winds at the moment are only somewhat conducive, with the loss of the upper level anticyclone that had been present.  However, the storm is under very little in the way of shear values, and is within a diffluent flow aloft, allowing for diffluence aloft to ventilate the eastern periphery of the storm, hence the one sided appearance at the moment.  Shear tendencies have been decreasing, and current mid level shear as of 12Z was less than 10 knots.

The last update of the wind shear forecast maps at 06Z indicate upper level winds are still forecast to become more conducive during the next 12 – 18 hours, with an upper level anticyclone forecast to become re-established over the system.  IF organization and development continue, the storm will pretty much take care of this itself.

Based on this premise, save any more dry air, GONZALO should begin a more steady rate of intensification either sometime this evening, or early tomorrow morning.  Given the chance of dry air possibly affecting the system, I have to concur with the NHC intensity forecast.  Once GONZALO leaves the Caribbean, a combination of the warm sst’s, and forecast favorable upper level winds, combined with colder upper tropospheric temperatures, GONZALO could ramp up a little quicker.  Should dry air be out of the equation, this system COULD have a shot at R.I. (Rapid Intensification).  The current OCH (Ocean Heat Content) in the storms projected path, supports this solution, should all other parameters be favorable.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  13/0900Z 16.8N  60.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 17.4N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.6N  64.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 20.2N  65.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 21.5N  67.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 23.8N  68.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 26.0N  67.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

GONZALO is moving west at about 280 degrees true.  I expect this motion to continue, with the possibility of some trichordial oscillation given the system is still pretty much in a developing mode.  Based on the last frames of satellite loop imagery, the center may be feeling a slight tug from the approaching deep layer trof.  In this instance, regarding this, I have to concur worth the NHC track and the 12Z dynamic guidance.  However, the current steering layer mean, satellite loop image close ups, and forecast steering maps valid for 12Z this morning, tend to argue that GONZALO MAY move a slight bit more to the left, prior to beginning a more steady WNW motion.  As one can see, GONZALO is pretty much past the weakness, or break in the ridge located near 55W Longitude, with the steering flow at around 280 degrees as of 12Z.  His turn toward the WNW will now hinge on how quick the trof over the central U.S. moves east, also noted in the current steering layer map.

HURREVAC NHC FORECAST TRACK AND WIND SWATH
HURREVAC GONZALO

12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
GONZALO dynamic

CURRENT STEERING LAYER

SATELLITE IMAGE FROM PSU E-WALL WITH STEERING OVERLAY

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGE


Based on this portion of my analysis, I cannot rule out GONZALO passing closer to the eastern portion of Puerto Rico before all is said and done.

The following watches and warnings have been posted:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/131317.shtml

NHC WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY

Residents under the HURRICANE WATCH AREAS should be making preparations for hurricane conditions, and following their hurricane preparedness plans.  Boaters are urged to seek safe harbor if possible. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS LINK for your area.

I will be at work today, so I will not be able to update until tomorrow again.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED BY WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER…OCT, 13, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    No, Elliot I have not even begun to sing … oh, you mean the season isn’t over. OOPS, my bad! Anyway, thank you, Storm, for keeping us posted despite your heavy schedule. There are people out there who need your brand of wisdom and delivery and it speaks well of your heart that you care enough about them to be sure they get the information they need even though it is sometimes hard for you. Thank you again, and God bless all in the path of Gonzalo.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm for your time, I know you are busy. And yes, Elliot, Storm did mention the strong possibility of a “back-weighted” season. He is so “ON”!

  3. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Morning Sr. Chief,

    Thank you for a great synopsis, like usual. If my thinking is correct ….. a long time ago you had said that things would get somewhat crazy later in the season. I guess that the “Fat Lady” has not finished singing.

    elliot

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