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SPECIAL UPDATE…11:00 A.M. EDT…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 61.9W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MAARTIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * ANGUILLA * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
Good day everyone!
I am still watching the disturbed area in the EATL, however nothing imminent nor organized. All focus will be shifted to Tropical Storm GONZALO.
Tropical Storm GONZALO continue to move toward the west, or just north of due west at around 280 degrees true. As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on GONZALO:
8:00 AM AST Mon Oct 13
Location: 17.0°N 61.5°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb / 29.32 in
Max sustained: 60 mph
Satellite loop imagery this morning indicated GONZALO has a better satellite representation, and has become more symmetric over the past few hours. Albeit some mid level dry air has been hindering a more steady rate of development, it now appears that GONZALO may be developing a CDO (Central Dense Overcast), which would signify some intensification.
Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates upper level winds at the moment are only somewhat conducive, with the loss of the upper level anticyclone that had been present. However, the storm is under very little in the way of shear values, and is within a diffluent flow aloft, allowing for diffluence aloft to ventilate the eastern periphery of the storm, hence the one sided appearance at the moment. Shear tendencies have been decreasing, and current mid level shear as of 12Z was less than 10 knots.
The last update of the wind shear forecast maps at 06Z indicate upper level winds are still forecast to become more conducive during the next 12 – 18 hours, with an upper level anticyclone forecast to become re-established over the system. IF organization and development continue, the storm will pretty much take care of this itself.
Based on this premise, save any more dry air, GONZALO should begin a more steady rate of intensification either sometime this evening, or early tomorrow morning. Given the chance of dry air possibly affecting the system, I have to concur with the NHC intensity forecast. Once GONZALO leaves the Caribbean, a combination of the warm sst’s, and forecast favorable upper level winds, combined with colder upper tropospheric temperatures, GONZALO could ramp up a little quicker. Should dry air be out of the equation, this system COULD have a shot at R.I. (Rapid Intensification). The current OCH (Ocean Heat Content) in the storms projected path, supports this solution, should all other parameters be favorable.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 60.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.6N 64.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.2N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 21.5N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 23.8N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 26.0N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
GONZALO is moving west at about 280 degrees true. I expect this motion to continue, with the possibility of some trichordial oscillation given the system is still pretty much in a developing mode. Based on the last frames of satellite loop imagery, the center may be feeling a slight tug from the approaching deep layer trof. In this instance, regarding this, I have to concur worth the NHC track and the 12Z dynamic guidance. However, the current steering layer mean, satellite loop image close ups, and forecast steering maps valid for 12Z this morning, tend to argue that GONZALO MAY move a slight bit more to the left, prior to beginning a more steady WNW motion. As one can see, GONZALO is pretty much past the weakness, or break in the ridge located near 55W Longitude, with the steering flow at around 280 degrees as of 12Z. His turn toward the WNW will now hinge on how quick the trof over the central U.S. moves east, also noted in the current steering layer map.
The following watches and warnings have been posted:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
Residents under the HURRICANE WATCH AREAS should be making preparations for hurricane conditions, and following their hurricane preparedness plans. Boaters are urged to seek safe harbor if possible. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS LINK for your area.
I will be at work today, so I will not be able to update until tomorrow again.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)