TROPICAL STORM GONZALO / TROPICAL STORM FAY / EAST ATLANTIC DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 12, 2014…4:15 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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URGENT UPDATE…ISSUED 5:00 P.M…GONZALO STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS… …HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED…

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND REACH THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Good day everyone!

When I last posted, we were tracking Sub-tropical Storm FAY.  FAY has since transitioned to a Tropical system and is now Tropical Storm FAY.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory, the following information was available on FAY:

11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 12
Location: 34.0°N 62.8°W
Moving: NE at 24 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb / 29.12 in
Max sustained: 70 mph

 HURREVAC TROPICAL STORM FAY TRACKING MAP
HURREVAC FAY

TROPICAL STORM FAY SATELLITE LOOP IMAGE

FAY is moving toward the NE, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 24 hours, prior to her moving toward the ENE then east.  This is supported by forecast steering maps, and dynamic model guidance.  By this time,FAY should begin to transition to an extra-tropical cyclone as she becomes absorbed by a cold front pushing eastward off the U.S. east coast.

This will be my final update on FAY.

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather that had been designated INVEST 90L when I last posted, has in fact become better organized during the day, and has become our SEVENTH tropical storm of the season.  As of the 1:30 p.m. EDT Special Advisory, Tropical Storm Gonzalo is approaching the Leeward Islands.  The following was available on Gonzalo in the NHC advisory:

1:30 PM AST Sun Oct 12
Location: 34.0°N 62.8°W
Moving: NE at 24 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 40 mph

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/121745.shtml

Tropical Storm GONZALO is currently moving toward the west.  I somewhat concur with the NHC forecast track, which is inline with the dynamic model guidance, and I expect the motion to continue for the next 24 hours.

HURREVAC TROPICAL STORM GONZALO TRACKING MAP (WITH 72 HOUR WIND SWATH)
HURREVAC GONZALO

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
GONZALO dynamic

However, upon analysis of various satellite loop imagery channels, I feel Gonzalo may move somewhat further west, prior to coming under the influence of the deep layer trof which will be digging southward, and causing a weakness in the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.  I will point out my reasoning:  IF you analyze the satellite loop imagery closely around the storm, and ahead of the storm just north of it, and to the west going into the Caribbean, one will note a fairly dominant flow toward the west in the Caribbean.  If you want to know the storms motion for the next, let’s say 12 hours or so, always note the low level cloud direction to the west of a developing system…zoom in as needed:

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (FOR CLOUD MOTION)

In the following Geostationary imagery loop, it appears ridging may be temporarily developing off the SEUS, and my thinking is, the trof may be just lagging a little slower than forecast, hence my thoughts as to why Gonzalo may shift a little further west before becoming affected by the trof, and turning WNW.  As of now, the NHC track and the dynamic guidance are on track at the moment.  I will be revisiting my thoughts on this tomorrow, as to see how the deep layer trof and ridge situation is shaping up over the next 12 hours or so.

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOP IMAGERY FROM SSEC

Gonzalo is currently under an area that has pretty much no wind shear at the moment, and upper level winds are forecast in the shear forecast, to become conducive for further development, with an upper level anticyclone becoming re-established over the storm.  Based on this premise, and forecast track, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast, and Gonzalo should attain Category ONE hurricane status over the next 48 hours.  If what appears to be the current trend in satellite loop imagery, I will not rule out Gonzalo becoming a hurricane within the next 36 hours or at least a 70 mph Tropical Storm.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1730Z 16.4N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.2N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.2N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.5N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 22.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

The following Watches and Warnings have been issued:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS (PLEASE CLICK THE LINK)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/121745.shtml?

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAP

NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/121929.shtml?

Residents within the watch/warning areas should monitor this system closely, and should make preparations for heavy rainfall and tropical storm force conditions that may produce flash flooding, as well as mudslides in mountainous areas.

I will continue to monitor Gonzalo for any significant changes regarding forecast environment, and any steering pattern changes over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, INVEST 91L in the eastern Atlantic has been dropped, however I will continue to monitor this disturbance, as a center relocation appears as if it may be occurring, and upper level winds are forecast to become somewhat conducive within the next 42 hours over the vicinity of this disturbed weather.  I will have another complete update late tomorrow morning.

SUSPECT AREA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL STORM GONZALO / TROPICAL STORM FAY / EAST ATLANTIC DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 12, 2014…4:15 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm!! Not by a computer.  I am sitting in my hospital room after having my appendix taken out. That was fun.

    Sent on the new Sprint Network from my Samsung Galaxy S®4.

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