You may click on the graphics for animations and close in views
YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED…
Your donation helps keep this site operational. Funds assist in web hosting, weather software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.) Your help is appreciated.
Good day to everyone!
The area of disturbed weather that was being monitored in the extreme south central Caribbean has moved inland over central America.
Current steering indicates this will continue toward the west, and forecast steering maps indicate this will enter the EPAC, which may be occurring at the moment, based on current satellite loop imagery.
The westward motion became more prominent, as a ridge developed north of the disturbance, centered over the LA/MS coastal area as of 12Z this morning, which closed off the weakness that was noted in yesterday’s analysis. Based on this, and in agreement with the NHC 5 day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, I am not expecting any development of this on the Atlantic side.
Elsewhere, I am still monitoring the area of disturbed weather located in the Atlantic, centered near 22N…59W. This area is moving toward the WNW near 10-15 mph, and I expect this to continue during the next 48 hours, prior to this moving toward the north, then out to sea, based on the current forecast steering layers maps valid for 12Z this morning.
Based on satellite loop imagery, the low level circulation can be clearly seen as a naked swirl, with convection off to the east. Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates wind shear is decreasing, and the wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds could become more conducive for some slow development over the next 4-5 days. The CMC does develop this, and is the only one with this solution. This could occur if the wind shear forecast is correct, however again, this should not be a U.S. threat.
Elsewhere, the GFS is still playing magician, in making another storm “appear” down in the Caribbean in abut 10-11 days. Given the performance of the GFS this season, this could be another anomaly, although it does follow the disturbance crossing into the EPAC and shows slow development of that system, in which the ECMWF is the only other model initializing the PAC system on it’s latest run.
I will continue to monitor this during the next 7-10 days, if for nothing else, so I don’t get extremely bored.
I will not have another update until Friday.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)