TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 08, 2014…10:10 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day to everyone!

The area of disturbed weather that was being monitored in the extreme south central Caribbean has moved inland over central America.

Current steering indicates this will continue toward the west, and forecast steering maps indicate this will enter the EPAC, which may be occurring at the moment, based on current satellite loop imagery.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The westward motion became more prominent, as a ridge developed north of the disturbance, centered over the LA/MS coastal area as of 12Z this morning,  which closed off the weakness that was noted in yesterday’s analysis.  Based on this, and in agreement with the NHC 5 day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, I am not expecting any development of this on the Atlantic side.

Elsewhere, I am still monitoring the area of disturbed weather located in the Atlantic, centered near 22N…59W.  This area is moving toward the WNW near 10-15 mph, and I expect this to continue during the next 48 hours, prior to this moving toward the north, then out to sea, based on the current forecast steering layers maps valid for 12Z this morning.

Based on satellite loop imagery, the low level circulation can be clearly seen as a naked swirl, with convection off to the east.  Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates wind shear is decreasing, and the wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds could become more conducive for some slow development over the next 4-5 days.  The CMC does develop this, and is the only one with this solution.  This could occur if the wind shear forecast is correct, however again, this should not be a U.S. threat.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Elsewhere, the GFS is still playing magician, in making another storm “appear” down in the Caribbean in abut 10-11 days.  Given the performance of the GFS this season, this could be another anomaly, although it does follow the disturbance crossing into the EPAC and shows slow development of that system, in which the ECMWF is the only other model initializing the PAC system on it’s latest run.

GFS 06Z RUN
GFS1
GFS2

I will continue to monitor this during the next 7-10 days, if for nothing else, so I don’t get extremely bored.

I will not have another update until Friday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 08, 2014…10:10 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    WOW Storm, looks like there might be two systems forming in the Atlantic. You did say that this would likely be a “back-loaded” year for storms. You Got it right , as usual!

  2. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, yeah that area a few hundred miles NE of Puerto Rico has that “Scary” look. Do you think it will form into a tropical or sub-tropical storm, And if it does, will it affect Bermuda?

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah…figured NHC would check in to your blog. Remnants of Simon affecting us.

  4. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm you need to be at the national hurricane center.

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I echo exactly what TexasHurricane said.

  6. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm! Do appreciate your time and posts. 🙂

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