TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 0CT. 03, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Looks like I’m gonna have to use my new CPR cert. today, because someone has to revive the tropics.  Satellite imagery this morning shows virtually nothing out there.

NORTH ATLANTIC (NATL) SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of global models on the early morning run does not indicate any development during the next 7-10 days.  The GFS however, is still running a system from the SW Caribbean, through the GOMEX beginning at 240 hours out from 06Z this morning.  While confidence in this solution is extremely low, given the performance of the model this season, I am going to put an interest in this, as we enter the “second” peak of the season.

GFS 06Z SOLUTION
GFS1

GFS2
Elsewhere, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) does not indicate any severe weather threat for today.  However, a pretty vigorous cold front is on the move, producing a large squall line.  The majority of thermodynamic values regarding the development of severe storms were pretty low upon analysis this morning.  I did however analyze some severe weather parameters through F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, and I will not rule out a probability of some possible embedded severe cells near the extreme southern portion of the squall line later this afternoon as SBCAPE values noted in the GFS and NAM-WRF models is forecast to increase by late this afternoon / early evening time frame.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

F5 DATA GFS / NAM-WRF FORECAST SBCAPE
f5 gfs.cape

f5 nam.cape

I work tomorrow, so my next update will most likely be on Monday morning sometime.

Other than this, enjoy the quiet weather and have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 0CT. 03, 2014…10:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm. GFS KEEPS SHOWING A SYSTEM IN CARRIBEAN IT START IT IN ABOUT 168 HOURS IS THIS ACCURATE?

    • Hard to tell Greg…I have been on and off looking at it. Was gonna put out a forecast today, but ran into problems with my car, and had to go to Tampa to order the parts…an Alternator to be exact. If we see any of the other global models pick up on it, then it could be accurate…say at about 120 hours out.

  2. originallt says:

    Wound up with 1.98″ of rain, so a good soaking, heavy rain at times, but no severe weather.Now clear and getting colder, down to 49F at 1am, Sunday morning.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I hope you have a defibrillator…and a big one. We just had a cold front go through. It was 42 degrees at high school reunion Homecoming Game. Yuck!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks as always for your time, Storm. I’ll report in on what this cold front will bring to my area in Sw CT. They are saying we could have some heavy showers and T. Storms, but nothing severe.

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