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Good day everyone!
Looks like I’m gonna have to use my new CPR cert. today, because someone has to revive the tropics. Satellite imagery this morning shows virtually nothing out there.
Analysis of global models on the early morning run does not indicate any development during the next 7-10 days. The GFS however, is still running a system from the SW Caribbean, through the GOMEX beginning at 240 hours out from 06Z this morning. While confidence in this solution is extremely low, given the performance of the model this season, I am going to put an interest in this, as we enter the “second” peak of the season.
Elsewhere, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) does not indicate any severe weather threat for today. However, a pretty vigorous cold front is on the move, producing a large squall line. The majority of thermodynamic values regarding the development of severe storms were pretty low upon analysis this morning. I did however analyze some severe weather parameters through F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, and I will not rule out a probability of some possible embedded severe cells near the extreme southern portion of the squall line later this afternoon as SBCAPE values noted in the GFS and NAM-WRF models is forecast to increase by late this afternoon / early evening time frame.
I work tomorrow, so my next update will most likely be on Monday morning sometime.
Other than this, enjoy the quiet weather and have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)