TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 30, 2014…10:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Not much going on this morning in the tropics, other than a bunch of leftover garbage moving eastward in the open Atlantic.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the Global Models this morning shows the GFS has once again backed off on the “ghost” system it had shown in the Caribbean previously, and the NCEP ESRL Ensemble no longer indicates significant lowering of 500 mb height anomalies.

We still have a stalled frontal boundary over the Florida peninsula, and into the Gulf of Mexico which should keep precipitation probabilities in the afternoon to the tune of greater than 40%.  I’ll be monitoring along the front for any mischief however over the next few days.

INTELLICAST SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP

If the tropics continue to remain quiet, I may begin issuing a severe weather synopsis along with the short, tropical brief.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 30, 2014…10:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m really enjoying this awesome season and al…h…action….it….br…zzzzzzzzzzz.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    This season has been really quiet overall. How many storms have we had this year anyways?

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, wow, this has been some season–OR NOT!- Good to see Daniell again.

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