INVEST 97L / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 29, 2014…10:25 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

An area of low pressure just W of Bermuda was just recently designated INVEST 97L.  Given it was just designated, there is no available tracking information at the moment, and dynamic guidance is not established as of yet.

INVEST 97L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

A combination of satellite  loop imagery and current steering layer mean indicate INVEST 97L is quasi-stationary at the moment.  Analysis of forecast steering layers maps valid for 12Z this morning indicate a slow NW drift should begin soon, and should be the case for the next 18 to 24 hours, before the trof exiting the U.S. east coast picks it up and turns it more toward the north then NE.

The NHC designates a MEDIUM (30%) probability of sub-tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days.  However, I am a little confused on their statement as to the mention of the upper level winds.  Analysis of the current wind shear product and upper level winds map indicate upper level winds to already be somewhat non conducive, as there is no upper level anticyclone over the system, and winds are currently out of the NW at around 10-15 knots.  However being baroclinic in nature, this may be having little effect at the moment, as vorticity maps indicate INVEST 97L   is vertically stacked at the moment, with positive vorticity also showing at 200 mb.

NHC GRAPHICAL 5 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Based on this analysis, should wind shear values not increase, this may be enough to allow for sub-tropical development to occur.  I will be looking at this again later tonight, but will not be able to update until tomorrow a.m.

Elsewhere, unsettled weather remains over portions of the Florida peninsula associated with a stationary front and surface low situated off the SE LA coast.  Another low is noted moving into the Texas area on satellite loop imagery, but has no convection associated with it.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The GFS solution is yet again indicating another “ghost” system forming near Nicaragua in about 12 days and brings it to depression status soon after, and eventually minimal T.S. status off the south-central Cuban coast.  This most likely will present itself as another feedback issue with the GFS.  However, this is the FIRST time the NCEP Ensemble 500 mb anomaly mean indicates a moderate lowering of pressures in that area, at the seam time the GFS makes this a depression and storm.  Being that far out in the forecast period, I have to deem the accuracy low at this time.

GFS
GFS1
NCEP ENSEMBLE 500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

I will be monitoring this area as we move closer to the initialization time frame of the GFS.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to INVEST 97L / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 29, 2014…10:25 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. ho77yw00d says:

    Thanks storm 🙂 hi everyone!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. 97L looks like it has an impressive little spin to it…unless I’m seeing things. This could get interesting. Up here…we are under a Tornado Watch…very rare for E Colorado in late September. The last time we had a fall like this…we had five major Winter Storms roll in one after another…followed by a couple of Arctic Fronts. Ugggh…not looking forward to this Winter. Thanks again Senior Chief for all of the hard work!!

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm you are the best.

  4. dellamom says:

    I know this is a weather site, and hope others understand my need to send this message to Storm: Before Katrina, locals were saying she was going elsewhere, then they said she was coming much slower than she did. Contraflow was supposed to start in the late afternoon. I was running to the bank about 10:00 or so and heard that contraflow would start at NOON! I was able to get to Chalmette to pick up my mother and get her out of her house (no easy feat) in a timely fashion. I had not been watching your reports or any others except TV because I was not home (running errands the night before and that morning in preparation) and did not have a mobile device able to access the internet. This could have been deadly for my mother if I had not been able to get to her, because her house got 7 feet of water. She got 2 inches for Hurricane Betsy and had a false sense of security because of that. Now, because of your reports and your “might be” scenarios, I can monitor events more closely and can get her out of her nursing home in a timely manner if I need to. I don’t know if you heard or remember, but a nursing home in St. Bernard Parish (where Chalmette is located) did not evacuate and by the time they realized they would be inundated, it was too late to get the old people out. The staff and owners fled, leaving the patients there. One was a local elected official’s mother, who kept calling him and asking “Son, are they coming to get me?” and he was unable, despite his best efforts, to get rescue there before she drowned. This is the difference you make in the lives of those who follow you. We understand that no one is infallible and things can happen despite best efforts, but you give us the best available information and the best understanding to make our choices and plans. I wanted to be sure you understand what a gift you are to so many people. God bless you, Storm.

    Thank all of you for letting me take the blog space to send this.

  5. dellamom says:

    Thank you for your insights. And just because the prior GFS reports were due to feedback, doesn’t mean this one will not come to fruition. I will keep a “weather eye” out for your next several comments, as usual.

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