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SPECIAL UPDATE…SEP. 26, 2014…ISSUED AT 3:20 P.M. EDT:
Analysis of satellite loop imagery over the western Atlantic indicates an area of low pressure may be trying to develop over portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Broad cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud deck, approximately at the 700-500 mb level, with a more noted vortex seen earlier near Latitude 18.0N…89.9W. This is in association with the tropical wave I had mentioned in the morning forecast synopsis. Since analysis this morning, the energy to the south has become the less noted feature, with cyclonic turning pretty much having formed more to the north, over the Yucatan peninsula. This is moving toward the west at an estimated 10 mph.
This area has an upper level anticyclone overhead at this time, with a fairly good outflow jet from the NE, clockwise around to the south…in other words, this area is being ventilated at the moment.
I will be monitoring this area for possible entrance into the BOC over the next 24 hours, and to see if the upper level anticyclone moves in tandem with this area.
Good day everyone!
Not very much to speak of in the tropics today. The area I have been monitoring in the CATL east of the Lesser Antilles was designated INVEST 96L 2 days ago. This system remains very disorganized, and is under 20 knots of wind shear. The latest run of the ATCF tracking was at 06Z this morning, and the following was available on INVEST 96L:
MAX SUSTAINED: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1012 MB / 29.88 IN.
INVEST 96L has been stationary over the past few hours, but more of a northward drift is expected to ensue today. I am not expecting development of this disturbance, as upper level winds are forecast to become much less favorable during the next 24 hours. In fact, I doubt if we see too many more updates in the ATCF tracking information. The NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability for development over the next 5 days.
An area of disturbed weather is located over Mexico at the moment and is notable in satellite loop images. This is associated with a Tropical Wave, with the bulk of energy located mainly to the south. This will enter the Pacific over the course of today, and could be another development for the EPAC.
Elsewhere, the GFS is still clinging to development in the Caribbean in 10-14 days. Albeit the Cape Verde season is shut down, and we focus back toward the Caribbean and GOMEX this time of year, I’m going to look at things in near real time, vice looking at model solutions. As far as I’m concerned this season, global models haven’t done well at all. Upper level winds are forecast to improve in the southern Caribbean at that time, however it’s been seen how this can change from this far out.
The CATL and MDR will be pretty much down until next season, as wind shear is forecast to increase in the next 4-5 days with unfavorable conditions.
WIND SHEAR FORECAST 126 HOURS FROM 06Z
It appears that El Nino could come to fruition by late fall or early winter. If you note, the SOI has been strongly negative during the past almost 3 months. This indicates a reversal in the trade wind pattern over the Equatorial Pacific, in that they blow from west to east, allowing the warmer sub-surface waters to hit the South American coast, and come to the surface and back toward the west.
What I am looking at doing, when time permits after the season officially closes, is to post as to why we have seen such inactivity this season, given the lack of the teleconnection between the warming Equatorial EPAC and the atmosphere as far as an El Nino signal, albeit the season acts much like this is in place as far as storm numbers (EPAC 18…NATL 5).
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)