TROPICAL WEATHER / EASTERN SEABOARD FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 24, 2014…11:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day to everyone!

Cloudiness and showers remain over portions of the GOMEX this morning, with activity concentrated over south portions of the Florida peninsula.  This is associated with a stationary frontal boundary that extends along the eastern seaboard, southward into the GOMEX.  The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity should continue to slowly move NE over the next couple of days.  An increased chance for thunderstorms over the Florida peninsula will be in place over the next 2 days.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

A surface low is now showing up on satellite loop overlays.  This is evidently to low models have been hinting at.  Right now, analysis of models this morning indicate this may not become a coastal storm, but more of a nuisance as a weak low pressure area, as far as precipitation is concerned.  Residents along the eastern seaboard should monitor statements from the NWS office regarding any flash flooding that may occur.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (TOGGLE FRONTS BOX FOR THE OVERLAY)

GFS AND NAM 72 HOUR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST

NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY MAP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR LOCAL STATEMENTS)

One of the tropical waves I had been watching, located now near 15N;44W has shown an increase in convection, and some very slight organization over the past few hours.  There is a northern outflow jet over it, and the upper level low to the west is currently ventilating this area.  However, this wave is surrounded by dry air, and upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development in approximately 48-56 hours.  Based on the dry air and shear forecast, I am not expecting development.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde islands has changed little in structure based on satellite loop imagery this morning.  Upper level winds are somewhat conducive for development, and are forecast to remain favorable during the next 72 hours, before an increase in wind shear is forecast to occur.  I really am not looking for any significant changes to this wave, but will continue to monitor it over the next 72 hours, by virtue of upper level winds being forecast to remain favorable.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK TO ANIMATE)

Elsewhere, Global models do not really indicate any development over the next 7-10 days, with the exception of the GFS indicating a low developing near the south central Caribbean Sea, and bringing it NW toward the goalpost as a minimal tropical storm.  Now, this could be another anomalous feedback issue with the GFS, however I will continue to monitor other models for any agreement, as upper level winds are forecast to be favorable for development in the region during this time.

06Z GFS SOLUTION
GFS1
GFS2

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 72-96 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / EASTERN SEABOARD FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 24, 2014…11:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. McBart Ender says:

    Hi again Storm. Some tropical mischief brewing off of TX coast? (See visible SAT) Looks like a rain maker at minimum.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Is this an indication of a more positively tilted ENSO on the horizon? I hope not.

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm like you said we have to wait and see what October brings. You are good Mr storm. I am confused why most weather men in my area are saying that are hurricane season is basically over for the gulf of Mexico.

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