TROPICAL WEATHER / ANOTHER COASTAL LOW? FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 23, 2014…10:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

The area I was monitoring in the GOMEX, west of the central Florida peninsula, has moved across the state.  The energy should continue toward the NE to NNE.  This will most likely contribute to another surface low off the coast of the SEUS, which will be mentioned further on in the synopsis.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the Global models this morning doesn’t really indicate  any development over the next 7 – 10 days.  A vigorous tropical wave is located in the far eastern Atlantic, just to the SSE of the Cape Verde islands at approximately 7N;21W.  Satellite loop imagery indicates this wave may be getting a little more consolidated, and showing more of an increase of convection.  The area is currently embedded within the monsoon trof.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH EUMETSAT LOOP LINKED

Analysis of the current wind shear products indicate upper level winds are currently somewhat favorable for slow development, and could become a little more conducive during the next 60 – 72 hours as it moves generally toward the W or WNW.  The environment around this wave seems to be fairly moist, and out ahead of this wave is not as dry as conditions have been for most of the season. 

CIMSS SAL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MID AND UPPER LEVEL

It is a little late in the season for a Cape Verde system, however any further organization could lead to designation of another INVEST.  Should this continue toward the west, I do believe some slow organization may be in order, and I will continue to monitor this wave for any significant changes in structure, and/or the pattern for the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, Global models are fairly much in agreement in development of a weak coastal system in about 24 – 30 hours off the SEUS coast near the Chesapeake Bay/ NC coastal area.  Based on satellite analysis and analysis of the global models and NAM regional model, it appears a combination of a low that is currently seen in satellite loop imagery over the extreme western portions of SC/NC, and the energy from the low mentioned which has been over Florida, will combine to begin the process.  However, models are only indicating a weak area of low pressure, which starts as an inverted trof, that is forecast to move rapidly toward the NNE over the next 48 – 72 hours.  I will have more on this as the situation develops.

GFS AND NAM MODEL ANALYSIS

The prospect of any GOMEX development has diminished over the past few days.  Although 500 mb height anomalies are still forecast to rise over the U.S., this has been pushed further north, and may not lower pressures over the central to southern GOMEX as originally thought.  In any case, I will be monitoring the Gulf for any mischief during the next 5 days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / ANOTHER COASTAL LOW? FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 23, 2014…10:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Another slow day at the office. Something’s got to give.

  2. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Afternoon Master Chief,

    Like everyone else “Thank You” for your synopsis. As things usually begin to get slower and less active I see this little Train coming off Africa … does this train have the ability to end the season with a boom or is it going to die or go into the middle Atlantic and curve east away from us. Things in life have an uncanny way of coming back to KUITA when we let our guard done.

  3. dellamom says:

    We had our first taste of a cool morning today, so your synopsis today is the cherry on my ice cream cake. I know things can change in a heartbeat this time of year, but today is a good day and I will take it! God bless you, Storm.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and thanks for answering my question about the local weather in your area.

  5. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm so as of right now we can breath a little easier. So we should be okay?

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