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Good day everyone!
The area I was monitoring in the GOMEX, west of the central Florida peninsula, has moved across the state. The energy should continue toward the NE to NNE. This will most likely contribute to another surface low off the coast of the SEUS, which will be mentioned further on in the synopsis.
Analysis of the Global models this morning doesn’t really indicate any development over the next 7 – 10 days. A vigorous tropical wave is located in the far eastern Atlantic, just to the SSE of the Cape Verde islands at approximately 7N;21W. Satellite loop imagery indicates this wave may be getting a little more consolidated, and showing more of an increase of convection. The area is currently embedded within the monsoon trof.
Analysis of the current wind shear products indicate upper level winds are currently somewhat favorable for slow development, and could become a little more conducive during the next 60 – 72 hours as it moves generally toward the W or WNW. The environment around this wave seems to be fairly moist, and out ahead of this wave is not as dry as conditions have been for most of the season.
It is a little late in the season for a Cape Verde system, however any further organization could lead to designation of another INVEST. Should this continue toward the west, I do believe some slow organization may be in order, and I will continue to monitor this wave for any significant changes in structure, and/or the pattern for the next 72 hours.
Elsewhere, Global models are fairly much in agreement in development of a weak coastal system in about 24 – 30 hours off the SEUS coast near the Chesapeake Bay/ NC coastal area. Based on satellite analysis and analysis of the global models and NAM regional model, it appears a combination of a low that is currently seen in satellite loop imagery over the extreme western portions of SC/NC, and the energy from the low mentioned which has been over Florida, will combine to begin the process. However, models are only indicating a weak area of low pressure, which starts as an inverted trof, that is forecast to move rapidly toward the NNE over the next 48 – 72 hours. I will have more on this as the situation develops.
The prospect of any GOMEX development has diminished over the past few days. Although 500 mb height anomalies are still forecast to rise over the U.S., this has been pushed further north, and may not lower pressures over the central to southern GOMEX as originally thought. In any case, I will be monitoring the Gulf for any mischief during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)