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Good day everyone!
A coastal low has developed off the Eastern Seaboard, located approximately 150 miles east of the Tidewater area. The low is currently producing winds of 30-40 mph well east of the center. A ship near the vicinity of 35.7N…74.4W had recently reported winds out of the north at 30kts (35 mph) This low is forecast to continue to move or begin to move toward the NE, and should continue to mover NE, and east of Nova Scotia over the next 48-72 hours. However, this may pass close enough to affect the New England area from Cape Cod, and northward along the south coast of Maine with an onshore wind of 15-20 mph right at the coast, with winds around 35-45 mph out in the open waters east of 67W.
Wave heights are forecast to run around 4-6ft near the immediate coast, to 8ft over the Gulf of Maine, and 11-14 ft in the open waters just south of the Gulf of Maine, with seas building closer to the center of this system. Surf heights will be just slightly larger.
Based on this analysis, Wind driven waves could allow for some coastal beach erosion as his system passes the area. Residents in the area are urged to stay away from the water, and boaters are urged to remain inport until the system passes and seas subside.
The low currently has an upper level anticyclone over it, and a northerly outflow channel. However, this may move quick enough in that it may not be able to acquire subtropical characteristics before moving over cooler water. This should remain baroclinic in nature, however will monitor it during the next 24 hours to see if any transition begins to occur.
Elsewhere, an area of thunderstorms is over the SE GOMEX, and is associated with a stalled frontal boundary extending from the central Florida peninsula, westward into the Gulf for a few hundred miles. This thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by diffulence aloft. Satellite loop imagery does indicate what appears to be a broad turning in the wind field, right along the front. However, upper level winds are not conducive for development, and analysis of the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable over the next 4-5 days. I am not expecting any development of this area right now. This activity is within weak steering currents at the moment, however forecast steering maps, valid for 00Z tonight indicate this activity should begin to move NE across the Florida peninsula in about 24-30 hours, and exit off the extreme NE coast of the peninsula. Global models do not indicate any type of development of this, however the forecast steering maps indicate this may briefly try to develop a small low that dissipates 24 hours after slight development in approximately 60 hours from 00Z tonight.
An area of disturbed weather, which may be some energy that split off from ex INVEST 95L, is located at the southern portion of a wave axis near 10N…33W, and is located within the monsoon trof. Recent satellite loop images indicate some cyclonic turning associated with this area. Upper level winds are currently marginal for any development, and the wind shear forecast shows upper level winds becoming more conducive over the next 48 through 96 hours.
I will continue to monitor this area closely for any signs of organization, or any significant changes in the pattern during the next 48-72 hours.
Global models have backed off quite a bit on the possibility of tropical storm or hurricane formation in the GOMEX toward the end of this month. Although this is quite a change from yesterday, and earlier, I will be monitoring not only the modeling for any significant changes, but still for the probability of lowering pressures over the GOMEX in about 6-8 days, as both the GFS and ECMWF still indicate 500 mb height pressure anomalies showing somewhat of a substantial rise in pressures over the North American continent, which COULD lead to what we term a situational development. Although the shear forecast shows a change in the upper level pattern (minus an upper level anticyclone), wind shear values are forecast to relax to about 10 m/s or less.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72 hours.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)