COASTAL / OFFSHORE STORM…TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 21, 2014…4:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

A coastal low has developed off the Eastern Seaboard, located approximately 150 miles east of the Tidewater area. The low is currently producing winds of 30-40 mph well east of the center.  A ship near the vicinity of 35.7N…74.4W had recently reported winds out of the north at 30kts (35 mph)  This low is forecast to continue to move or begin to move toward the NE, and should continue to mover NE, and east of Nova Scotia over the next 48-72 hours. However, this may pass close enough to affect the New England area from Cape Cod, and northward along the south coast of Maine with an onshore wind of 15-20 mph right at the coast, with winds around 35-45 mph out in the open waters east of 67W.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

Wave heights are forecast to run around 4-6ft near the immediate coast, to 8ft over the Gulf of Maine, and 11-14 ft in the open waters just south of the Gulf of Maine, with seas building closer to the center of this system.  Surf heights will be just slightly larger.

STORMSURF SURF HEIGHTS AND WIND FORECAST LOOP

Based on this analysis, Wind driven waves could allow for some coastal beach erosion as his system passes the area.  Residents in the area are urged to stay away from the water, and boaters are urged to remain inport until the system passes and seas subside.

The low currently has an upper level anticyclone over it, and a northerly outflow channel.  However, this may move quick enough in that it may not be able to acquire subtropical characteristics before moving over cooler water.  This should remain baroclinic in nature, however will monitor it during the next 24 hours to see if any transition begins to occur.

Elsewhere, an area of thunderstorms is over the SE GOMEX, and is associated with a stalled frontal boundary extending from the central Florida peninsula, westward into the Gulf for a few hundred miles.  This thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by diffulence aloft.  Satellite loop imagery does indicate what appears to be a broad turning in the wind field, right along the front.  However, upper level winds are not conducive for development, and analysis of the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds are forecast  to remain unfavorable over the next 4-5 days.  I am not expecting any development of this area right now.  This activity is within weak steering currents at the moment, however forecast steering maps, valid for 00Z tonight indicate this activity should begin to move NE across the Florida peninsula in about 24-30 hours, and exit off the extreme NE coast of the peninsula. Global models do not indicate any type of development of this, however the forecast steering maps indicate this may briefly try to develop a small low that dissipates  24 hours after slight development in approximately 60 hours from 00Z tonight.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (TOGGLE THE FRONTS BUTTON FOR FRONTAL DISPLAY)

An area of disturbed weather, which may be some energy that split off from ex INVEST 95L, is located at the southern portion of a wave axis near 10N…33W, and is located within the monsoon trof.  Recent satellite loop images indicate some cyclonic turning associated with this area.  Upper level winds are currently marginal for any development, and the wind shear forecast shows upper level winds becoming more conducive over the next 48 through 96 hours.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

I will continue to monitor this area closely for any signs of organization, or any significant changes in the pattern during the next 48-72 hours.

Global models have backed off quite a bit on the possibility of tropical storm or hurricane formation in the GOMEX toward the end of this month.  Although this is quite a change from yesterday, and earlier, I will be monitoring not only the modeling for any significant changes, but still for the probability of lowering pressures over the GOMEX in about 6-8 days, as both the GFS and ECMWF still indicate 500 mb height pressure anomalies showing somewhat of a substantial rise in pressures over the North American continent, which COULD lead to what we term a situational development.  Although the shear forecast shows a change in the upper level pattern (minus an upper level anticyclone), wind shear values are forecast to relax to about 10 m/s or less. 

GFS / ECMWF 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
GFS120

GFS144

ECMWF120

ECMWF144

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to COASTAL / OFFSHORE STORM…TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 21, 2014…4:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. McBart Ender says:

    Thanks for the information. Looks like the odds of a GOMEX system went down a bit. Still could happen, but upper levels are not looking favorable. (Bunker is back. I’ll still be lurking in here, and posting now and then. Leaving you a 1/5th ‘o hooch for your hospitality. TYVM)

  2. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm you talk about pressures lowering still in the gulf the next 8 days is that something that could spawn something up?

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Close to a NorEaster?? At least a wannabe? I’m not ready for Winter or a positive tilt in the ENSO.

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