TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L / POSSIBLE GOMEX DEVELOPMENT END OF MONTH FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 18, 2014…11:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

The Tropical Wave that moved off the African coast earlier has been designated INVEST 95L.  Based on the ATCF 12Z tracking information, the following was available on INVEST 95L:

Location: 10.7°N 18.0°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 25 mph

Just for your information, the report doesn’t actually give the forward motion, or pressure in inches of mercury…this is based on calculations I perform based on how many degrees north and west the system has moved in the past 12 hours, and pressure calculated as follows.  The standard is 1000 mb is equal to 29.53 inches of mercury.  Take 1009 mb, and punch in on a calculator like so: 1.009…then multiply by 29.53…round up your last two decimal places, as the solution comes out to 29.79577

Using the following calculator, take the answer in statute miles, then divide by 12.  In this case, 95L went from 10.5N;16.3W (LAT1..LONG1) to 10.7N;18.0W (LAT2…LONG2) in 12 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml?

INVEST 95L is moving slowly to the west.  However based on forecast steering maps, in about 18 hours, 95L should begin to move toward the NW or NNW, feeling a weakness in the ridge to its north.  The track right now is forecast to meander between NNW to NW over the next 2-3 days, before being pushed off toward the NNE.  Satellite loop images indicate the disturbance appears to be getting very slowly organized.

INVEST 95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Upper level winds are currently favorable for sow development of this system, and are forecast to remain somewhat favorable for further slow development during the next 72 hours, before increasing westerly wind shear sets in.  Based on this analysis, I concur with the NHC probabilities of tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days.  Again, given this season has pulled some surprises, I will continue to monitor this area over the next 72 hours for any changes to the pattern which may affect this disturbance.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Upon analysis of satellite imagery over Africa, what Cape Verde season we did have, seems to be winding down.  There may be one, maybe two more areas that may need to be monitored in the course of the week.

EUMETSAT LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK TO ANIMATE)

Elsewhere, the GFS global model is still showing development in the GOMEX, beginning in about 8 days over the Yucatan Peninsula.  The late afternoon run yesterday kind of went off on a tangent, and showed a very weak, elongated area of low pressure over the eastern GOMEX, but has since then returned to a solution of a Tropical Storm in the south central GOMEX by months end.  The model has seemed to been back and forth, and some of the runs could have been what we term GIGO (Garbage in…Garbage out).

GFS MODEL OUTPUT
GFS1

ECMWF OUTPUT
ECMWF

In any case, I will be monitoring this area closely, as on the latest run of the ECMWF, the solution shows a lowering of surface pressure in the BOC.  Along with this, the forecast for rising 500 mb height anomalies over a large portion of the U.S. just prior to this, is still forecast.  This will naturally lower pressures to the south, and allow for a convergent surface flow over the GOMEX.

GFS AND ECMWF 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
gfs500

ecmwf500

ecmwf5002

The second parameter supporting some sort of development is the GFS Wind Shear forecast map still indicates a large, upper level anticyclone developing over the GOMEX at the same time frame, but over the Yucatan first.  So based on this, the GFS solution cannot be ruled out at the moment.  I would however like to see some better consistency and model support from the other global models before we begin to get “antsy” about this.

GFS WIND SHEAR

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L / POSSIBLE GOMEX DEVELOPMENT END OF MONTH FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 18, 2014…11:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Thanks for mb vs. inches calculator…great explanation. It’s sure looking like another uneventful week.

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Thank you for the update Mr storm. So we might have to turn our attention to the gulf in long range. Maybe or not?

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Yep, looks like any chances of a Cape Verde system “bothering” us is pretty slim. I guess you’ll be looking for more “home grown” systems or those that may develop closer in and move towards the Gomex, or East Coast.

  4. dellamom says:

    My personal barometer is at “watchful,” and I agree it is too early for it to advance to “antsy.” I am so grateful to have you to let us know in advance that there may be something to be watchful or ansty about. With my mother in a nursing home on the southshore, it gives me a little extra contingency time to get a “just in case” room ready for her, since I would need to bring her here in the event something comes to visit. God bless you, Storm.

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