TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX MISCHIEF? ISSUED SEP. 17, 2014…11:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day to everyone!

As stated yesterday, I have posted my final update on Edouard.

An area of disturbed weather is located just off the U.S. east coast, east of the GA/SC area.  This is associated with a frontal trof, and a developing surface low along the stationary portion of the front.  Upper level winds are not conducive for any development, and the wind shear forecast indicates upper level wind will remain unfavorable for development.  This should remain baroclinic in nature, and will be moving off to the NE along the deep layer trof.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The tropical wave that was behind Edouard, is now located NE of the Lesser Antilles.  Convection has increased over the past few hours, however upper level winds are unfavorable for development, and are forecast t  remain unfavorable for the next 60-72 hours.  Based on current and forecast steering maps, this wave should begin to move toward the NW soon, and should follow through the weakness that Edouard is embedded in.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The disturbed weather I had been monitoring in the CATL which had a low associated with it, has become more diffuse, and is a very broad circulation centered near 10N;38W.  Upper level winds are not conducive for development.

A tropical wave is entering the far eastern Atlantic ocean, just off the African coast.  Based on the most current satellite images, this area appears to have some organization to it.

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGE

EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGE (CLICK TO ANIMATE)

Analysis of the wind shear product from CIMSS, over the EATL, indicates an upper level anticyclone is established over this wave.  Based on the current wind shear forecast, upper level winds should remain favorable for some slow development during the next 60-72 hours, before a slight increase in westerly shear occurs.

This wave is moving toward the west at the moment, and analysis of forecast steering layers maps indicates this may continue toward the west over the next 72-96 hours.  Forecast steering was somewhat difficult to determine this morning, as the wave just does show up in the streamlines.  However, there appears to be another wave that comes in right behind, and the steering models take it on an immediate recurve.  Given the very close proximity, it is not clear whether or not this current wave is the one the models are re-curving right away, or a totally different system.  Regardless, I will continue to monitor this wave during the next 72 hours for any significant changes and for development.  I would not be surprised to see this be designated INVEST 95L possibly in about 24 hours.

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models still shows the GFS being consistent in development beginning over the Gulf of Honduras in about 9 days, with the low then moving across the Yucatan peninsula and into the southern GOMEX.  Currently, the solution indicates a strong tropical storm, to minimal Category 1 hurricane in the central GOMEX near 26.0N.  Albeit the GFS has been consistent in this for the past few runs, the solution is not written in stone.  However, I cannot rule this out 100% as of yet, as with the premise of rising 500 mb height anomalies over North America, pressures should lower over the GOMEX.  The GFS wind shear forecast is still consistent in indicating a rather large upper level anticyclone becoming established over the Yucatan peninsula in about 10-12 days, then covering the entire GOMEX afterward.  I will be monitoring this over the next 8-10 days for more consistency, and especially for model agreement.

GFS 06Z RUN
GFS1

GFS2

GFS3

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST (UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOTED OVER YUCATAN AND GOMEX)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX MISCHIEF? ISSUED SEP. 17, 2014…11:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…the frustrating season continues. It wouldn’t shock me to see a Cyclone in December the way things are going. LOL

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    I realize this possible GOMEX thing is not written in stone, but by looking at those models is that looking TX and or LA bound?

  3. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Day Master Chief,

    This season has been crazy! It is like riding the roller caster …. either go fast or let me off. Or the season is like being “constantly pregnant” I have all the symptoms bot nothing comes to fruition.

    I guess truthfully it is great no damage not having to spend money on extra batteries etc, etc.

    But I am a Hurricane Junkie, I can’t let go, I get excited, look forward to excitement and fear that it brings. Watching the spaghetti color strands gets me going better than a good cup of coffee.

    The experience is a love vs hate … good vs evil …. feeling great vs joint the depth of sadness.

    Does anyone have feelings like this!

    • TexasHurricane says:

      LOL …I know what you mean. I would be lying if I said possible storms coming my way wouldn’t be a little exciting. However, I am in no way shape or form wanting anything major that would cause loss of life and property. I am sure that is the same for you.

    • Jordan Brown says:

      I’m with you Elliot. I am a “Hurricane Junkie” as well! And let me tell you the past few hurricane seasons have been sooooo frustrating here in South Florida. In fact, the last good storm I experienced was Wilma in 05′, but other than that, nothing has come close.

    • Monty says:

      I hear you Elliot. I went through Camille as a kid and have been fascinated with the tropics ever since. Add me to the Junkie list!!

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