HURRICANE EDOUARD / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 15, 2014…11:55 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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UPDATE…9:55 P.M. EDT…SEP. 15, 2014:

The area of interest I added to places to be monitored, has become a little better concentrated in thunderstorm activity, and has become better defined as one area.  This disturbed weather is located near 10.0N…32.0W  Satellite loop imagery indicates the possibility of some slight counterclockwise turning in the wind field may be starting, however is not detected on vorticity maps as of this time.  Forecast steering maps valid for 00Z this evening indicate this area may be weak enough, and at a lower latitude in that it may escape feeling the full effect of the weakness which is steering Edouard, and could make it past 55-60W before a more WNW motion.  I will keep an eye on this area as it moves west.  Upper level winds are favorable at this moment, however they are forecast to become marginal in about 72 hours.  Values could be low enough to allow for some very slow organization, however unless the forecast changes, upper level winds become unfavorable near and east of the Lesser Antilles in about 90-96 hours.  I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any significant changes.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Good day everyone!

Hurricane Edouard has strengthened  The following information was available on Edouard as of the 5:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC:

Location: 26.9°N… 54.5°W
Moving: NW 15 MPH
Min pressure: 996 mb/28.53 in
Max sustained: 105 mph
Category: 2

NHC TRACKING MAP

Edouard continues on a steady NW track, and I expect this motion to continue over the next 24 hours.  Based on analysis of the current steering layers map, Edouard is moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and should begin a more N to NNE motion after today, which is verified by the current steering layers forecast maps.  Based on this, I concur with the NHC forecast track.

Edouard has strengthened with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH.  This makes Edouard a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Analysis of the current wind shear product indicates an upper level anticyclone trying to become re-established with the system, and a noted drop in shear values.  3 hours prior, upper level winds were somewhat marginal, hence the very brief subtle change in structure.  Satellite loop imagery indicates Edouard may be in the process of strengthening as I type this forecast.  The current wind shear forecast does indicate upper level winds are forecast o become more favorable within the next 12-18 hours, with a well defined upper level anticyclone forecast to be over the Hurricane.  Based on this, and the improvement in satellite signature, I concur with the NHC Intensity Forecast, in that Edouard could become the first Major Hurricane of the season. This will most likely be short in existence, as in approximately 48 hours, the hurricane will be experiencing increasing unfavorable conditions.

EDOUARD SATELLITE FLOATER LOOP IMAGERY

Elsewhere, I am currently monitoring a tropical wave in the CATL centered near 17.0N…45.2W.  Satellite loop imagery of the Visible and RGB channels indicate a closed low level circulation seen at the position mentioned, which is currently moving toward the west.  Based on forecast steering however, in about 24-36 hours, this may be picked up by the weakness that is steering Edouard at the moment.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

This area is experiencing 2o kts of westerly shear at the moment.  The current shear forecast calls for upper level winds to be unfavorable for any development over the next 48 hours, with shear values becoming marginal thereafter.  Based on cloud analysis and water vapor imagery, dry air is another inhibiting factor at this time.  IF upper level winds relax enough, this could try to build a little more vertical, as mid level shear is averaging 5-10 knots, and indications are that this wave is shallow in the atmosphere, with vorticity from the surface, only up to 700 mb.

I will continue to monitor this area over the next 72 hours.

I am currently monitoring an area of thunderstorm activity within the monsoon trof near 33-35W, noted in above satellite loop imagery.  Current wind shear values are only about 10 knots over the area, and the shear forecast indicates upper level winds could be conducive for some slow organization of this area, before wind shear increases to unfavorable levels in about 72-90 hours.

This convection is associated from being blown west from the tropical wave located behind this activity, which will also be monitored over the next few days.

EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The GFS is showing a few items in the future, which given the fact we may see another upward motion phase of the MJO beginning in about 5 – 6 days, cannot be totally ruled out as of yet.  The GFS brings another wave off the African coast, and develops it in about 6 days.  The area in question appears to be the area I have circled in the EUMETSAT satellite image.

At the same time, the GFS beings to develop a coastal system due to a trof split, which leaves a cutoff low off the SEUS coastal area.

GFS 06Z RUN
GFS1
GFS2
GFS3

EUMETSAT SATELLITE IMAGE
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color-all

EUMETSAT (CLICK TO ANIMATE)

The other area develops as a tropical system, beginning in the Gulf of Honduras.  This however is about 12 days out, in which accuracy is considered less than substantial.  However, we have had consistency with the GFS showing this, and along the current shear forecast, I will be monitoring this area to see if the favorable conditions come to fruition, with the premise of an upper level anticyclone developing over the region around that same time frame.

GFS WIND SHEAR AND ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST (PINK AREA CIRCLED IS FAVORABLE)
850200shear41
850200ZONALushear41

In case anybody is wondering, here is just ONE of the reasons our activity in the Atlantic is not really hopping.  In the current SST anomaly map, you’ll see what I have circled, which is known as the Atlantic Ocean Tripole.  Warm anomalies very far north, colder anomalies further south, and warmer anomalies north of 20N.  The key here is, the warm anomalies north of 20N latitude.  The pattern with this means, upward motion in the far north anomalies, and sinking motion where the colder anomalies are seen.  With the warmer SST anomalies just north of the MDR, this is where we have a net upward motion, and an energy budget.  Since this net upward motion and energy is north of the MDR, there is really nothing for the waves coming off Africa to “feed” off of.  This is one of the reasons Edouard is doing so well, and being able to strengthen, as he is north of 20N latitude.

SST ANOMALY MAP SHOWING ATLANTIC OCEAN TRIPOLE CONDITIONS
anomnight.9.15.2014

I will not have another update until tomorrow morning sometime.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to HURRICANE EDOUARD / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 15, 2014…11:55 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Yes, you did say to look for a late, activity for this season season. Looks like you’ll be right—OF COURSE!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Edouard looks like the tightest system in quite some time. Is it me or does Cape Verde Season seem to be playing the extended version?

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for keeping us advised. It looks like things are still chugging along the African corridor, which I believe is kind of late compared to prior seasons. Aren’t we usually back into the Caribbean spin-ups by now? And is it just wishful seeing, or are the water temperatures in the Gulf south of Louisiana just a tad cooler than they have been? I didn’t see reds today, and I have been seeing a fairly decent swatch of red just south of Louisiana for the last month or so. Hope springs eternal! Thanks again and I hope you are managing some rest. I hope you and your fiancée enjoyed her birthday evening and appreciate her sharing your time with us. Not every woman would be willing to do that.

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