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Good evening everyone!
Tropical disturbance INVEST 92L is located over the Florida Peninsula at the moment, and as of early analysis this morning, the center was located just south of Lake Okeechobee.
Based on the 12Z ATCF tracking information, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
Location: 27.4°N… 78.4°W
Moving: WSW 10 MPH
Min pressure: 1012 mb/29.88 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
Analysis of satellite loop imagery in the last 2 hours indicates two things…dry air and wind shear has caused the convection to collapse, and reform SW of the center, and the LC is clearly noted moving out from the convection, and now appears to be moving toward the W. Based on this new parameter, this will be problematic in that it is unknown at the moment whether or not a center reformation will occur, or if this system is going to dissipate. There is the probability of a center reformation further south, under the new area of convection, as the current vorticity maps indicate vorticity has shifted a little further in that direction. However the current situation may dictate that the convective activity we are seeing may be pulse type thunderstorm activity which could collapse if dry air is brought in. So, pretty much in a nut shell, we have a game changer with this. The only thing I can do at the moment is to post the guidance form 12Z, however in light of the new developments, this should definitely change on the next run or two. Should a center reformation take place, I prefer the consensus model guidance of the TVCN/TVCC/TV15 models.
This dilemma is now going to change any intensity forecast. Pretty much, modeling was in agreement of a minimal tropical storm before making landfall. IF this can regroup, it may still be possible, as upper level winds are going to wax and wane somewhat as far as wind shear over the next 48-72 hours, but may relax enough at around 90 hours out to allow for some organization. Albeit the flow does not appear optimal in the forecast (i.e. Lack of upper level anticyclone), the system could develop one overhead if decent organization can occur, due to almost no vertical shear.
I will continue to monitor this area closely, and will try to update sometime this evening with new information.
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
Tropical Storm Edouard continues to move toward the NW, and the following information was available as of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC in Miami:
Location: 18.5°N… 43.0°W
Moving: WNW 16 MPH
Min pressure: 1003 mb/29.62 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
The future track of Edouard appears to be pretty much textbook in that I do expect the current motion to continue over the next 48 hours, before a turn more to the NNW begins, and then moving more toward the north through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This is based on both analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps from the PSU e-WALL site, and 12Z Dynamic Model guidance.
I agree with the NHC Intensity Forecast contained in the discussion from 11:00 a.m., and their analysis:
NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION
The disturbance I had mentioned yesterday in my synopsis has been designated INVEST 93L. This disturbance is currently moving toward the WNW near 15 mph. The following information was available from the ATCF 12Z tracking information:
Location: 11.4°N… 24.5°W
Moving: WNW 15 MPH
Min pressure: 1009 mb/29.80 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
The disturbance is showing signs of slow organization, and is located in an area where upper level winds are conducive for further slow development. In about 72 hours, based on analysis of the wind shear forecast and zonal shear forecast, upper level winds may become marginal soon thereafter. Based on this, and with some dry air already making it’s way slightly into the disturbance, further slow development may be the case over the next few days. Both dynamic guidance and intensity information had not posted at the time of this synopsis, however if this disturbance fights off the dry air, it could reach depression status near the end of the forecast period, however the probability is slim right now.
As far as forward motion, the disturbance should continue to move either to the WNW or just north of west over the next 72-96 hours, and based on forecast steering, should be able to come slightly further west than Edouard, however will begin to head for the weakness in the ridge left by Edouard.
I will continue to monitor this area over the next 72 hours for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, a large area of disturbed weather is situated over the southern GOMEX/BOC area and has increased over the past few hours. However, upper level winds are currently marginal, and may only become slightly more conducive during the next 36-48 hours. This could allow for an INVEST to be designated over the next 36 hours. There has been a noted increase of vorticity near the surface, however the current and forecast steering layers maps indicate even if development were to occur, this should move west to WNW into Mexico in a few days.
I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes over the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)