TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 92L / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 11, 2014…9:50 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening everyone!

Tropical disturbance INVEST 92L has shown an increase in convective activity today, however the convection is being blown off toward the SSW due to approximately 20 knots of shear out of the NE.  Albeit we have seen an increase in convective activity, the area remains poorly organized.  The circulation has become a little better defined today, however the system is tilted toward the SW due to wind shear, based on the current vorticity maps.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

INVEST 92L SATELLITE FLOATER IMAGERY

Based on the 18Z ATCF guidance product, the following information was available on INVEST 92L:

Location: 27.4°N… 78.4°W
Moving: SW
Min pressure: 1014 mb/29.94 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

Based on the previous updates, the ATCF information shows the center is moving just north of due west.  It appears the product is putting out erroneous information, as based on current steering, satellite loop images, and Doppler Radar loops, the motion is clearly to the SSW to SW.  Based on the ATCF information, it is kind of difficult to calculate forward speed at the moment, however the current steering map indicates weak steering as of my analysis.

Based on analysis of the forecast steering layers maps section from the PSU e-WALL site, I expect this general motion to continue during the next 24 -30 hours, before more of a westerly track begins.  Right now, based on satellite loop image analysis, there are multiple vorticies noted, and based on vorticity, I do believe we may see a center reformation/relocation prior to this crossing the Florida Peninsula.  Right now I believe any relocation could most likely be more toward the NE, but not by much.  Based on current motion, I feel at this particular moment, 92L could slide a little further south, before heading west, and could cross the extreme south portion of the Florida Peninsula.  Based on my analysis, I concur with the Dynamic Model track guidance in the ATCF 00Z update, and inline with the southern portion of the guidance package and the TVCN/TV15/TVCC consensus models.  Now, keep in mind, the steering currents could modify, and are only accurate to around 72 hours at best…so I ask you hold all questions as to where this may go, especially since there will most likely be a center relocation.

00Z ATCF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
92L dynamic

As stated, the disturbance is under some wind shear at the moment, and based on the most recent wind shear forecast map, may be under wind shear for the next 48 – 72 hours.  However near the end of the 5 day forecast period, upper level winds may relax enough for this system to begin to become better organized.  Albeit no upper level anticyclone is forecast over this system, shear values relax to near 10 knots or less for a brief period beginning around 90 – 96 hours in the forecast period from 18Z this afternoon.  Based on this, I believe upper level winds may not be as hostile as set forth by the NHC, and we should see some development begin as this enters, or begins to pass west of the central GOMEX.  Again, this is based on whether or not the shear forecast maps are correct.

Currently, I am not expecting anything major as far as development.  Intensity guidance models indicate the probability of a minimal, to moderate Tropical Storm at best.  Regardless of development or not over the next 48 hours, residents of the south Florida Peninsula will probably receive heavy rain, and the Florida Peninsula in general should see an increase in thunderstorm activity by late Friday, into the weekend.

CLICK FOR NWS MELBOURNE DOPPLER LOOP

I will continue to monitor this area closely however, as we have seen, especially this season, how conditions have reversed themselves on such short notice.

INVEST 91L continued to become better organized today, and was designated Tropical Depression SIX.

TD SIX SATELLITE FLOATER IMAGERY

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Depression SIX:

Location: 27.4°N… 78.4°W
Moving: NW  15 MPH
Min pressure: 1006 mb/29.71 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

The depression is moving toward the NW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 48 hours, before the system begins to move more toward the NNW, heading for a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Forecast steering maps have been consistent in this, and I concur with the NHC forecast track, which is inline with the dynamic model guidance.  After the 5 day scenario, this should recurve toward the NNE then NE.

NHC TRACKING MAP

ATCF T.D. SIX DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
T.D. SIX DYNAMIC

The depression is in an area where upper level winds are favorable for further development, with an established upper level anticyclone over the system, which is forecast to move in tandem for the next 96 – 120 hours.  Based on this, and the premise the system should move over slightly warmer sst’s, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast, which is a little higher than what the models are indicating.  The last few frames of satellite loop imagery may indicate the system could be reaching T.S. status shortly.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 19.0N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 20.1N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 21.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 24.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 27.5N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 30.5N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

 
There are 2 other areas I am monitoring, however I will be looking at those tomorrow, and will include them in the update tomorrow.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 92L / TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 11, 2014…9:50 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for putting this report out after your day at work. I know it is difficult for you, and it is much appreciated by us. I note that we have three areas of interest on the NHC map now and look forward to your next evaluation, but hope you can get some much-needed rest first. I guess the Florida system is currently a wait-and-see for Gulf interests, so Texas Hurricane, Greg and I will be watching closely. And as a reminder, it doesn’t have to be a hurricane or a tropical storm to do a lot of damage if it moves slowly enough. All of us in the Gulf states, from Florida to Texas, need to be sure we are prepared for power outages associated with any heavy rain event.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. HA…looks like we have Edouard. Any shot we see Fay in the GOMEX? We could see an inch of snow in DEN tonight…then back into the 80s next week.

  3. Jordan Brown says:

    Storm, I live in South Florida (Broward County). Seems as though the rain is re-developing over the tri-county area, nothing too heavy though. Looking at the radar of South Florida you posted, seems as though one of the centers (not sure if upper, mid, or low level) is spinning right off Palm Beach County.
    Thanks for the update!

  4. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. Glad it didn’t get worse before Florida and hope it stays weak in the gulf.

  5. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for your time and updates Storm. Much appreciated! 🙂

  6. greg goodman says:

    Thank you mr storm you are so good. You tell us like you see it.I hope you can get some rest I could imagin your schedule is pretty full.

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