You may click on the graphics for animations and close in views
YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED…
Your donation helps keep this site operational. Funds assist in web hosting, weather software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.) Your help is appreciated.
Good evening everyone!
Tropical disturbance INVEST 92L has shown an increase in convective activity today, however the convection is being blown off toward the SSW due to approximately 20 knots of shear out of the NE. Albeit we have seen an increase in convective activity, the area remains poorly organized. The circulation has become a little better defined today, however the system is tilted toward the SW due to wind shear, based on the current vorticity maps.
Based on the 18Z ATCF guidance product, the following information was available on INVEST 92L:
Location: 27.4°N… 78.4°W
Min pressure: 1014 mb/29.94 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
Based on the previous updates, the ATCF information shows the center is moving just north of due west. It appears the product is putting out erroneous information, as based on current steering, satellite loop images, and Doppler Radar loops, the motion is clearly to the SSW to SW. Based on the ATCF information, it is kind of difficult to calculate forward speed at the moment, however the current steering map indicates weak steering as of my analysis.
Based on analysis of the forecast steering layers maps section from the PSU e-WALL site, I expect this general motion to continue during the next 24 -30 hours, before more of a westerly track begins. Right now, based on satellite loop image analysis, there are multiple vorticies noted, and based on vorticity, I do believe we may see a center reformation/relocation prior to this crossing the Florida Peninsula. Right now I believe any relocation could most likely be more toward the NE, but not by much. Based on current motion, I feel at this particular moment, 92L could slide a little further south, before heading west, and could cross the extreme south portion of the Florida Peninsula. Based on my analysis, I concur with the Dynamic Model track guidance in the ATCF 00Z update, and inline with the southern portion of the guidance package and the TVCN/TV15/TVCC consensus models. Now, keep in mind, the steering currents could modify, and are only accurate to around 72 hours at best…so I ask you hold all questions as to where this may go, especially since there will most likely be a center relocation.
As stated, the disturbance is under some wind shear at the moment, and based on the most recent wind shear forecast map, may be under wind shear for the next 48 – 72 hours. However near the end of the 5 day forecast period, upper level winds may relax enough for this system to begin to become better organized. Albeit no upper level anticyclone is forecast over this system, shear values relax to near 10 knots or less for a brief period beginning around 90 – 96 hours in the forecast period from 18Z this afternoon. Based on this, I believe upper level winds may not be as hostile as set forth by the NHC, and we should see some development begin as this enters, or begins to pass west of the central GOMEX. Again, this is based on whether or not the shear forecast maps are correct.
Currently, I am not expecting anything major as far as development. Intensity guidance models indicate the probability of a minimal, to moderate Tropical Storm at best. Regardless of development or not over the next 48 hours, residents of the south Florida Peninsula will probably receive heavy rain, and the Florida Peninsula in general should see an increase in thunderstorm activity by late Friday, into the weekend.
I will continue to monitor this area closely however, as we have seen, especially this season, how conditions have reversed themselves on such short notice.
INVEST 91L continued to become better organized today, and was designated Tropical Depression SIX.
As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Depression SIX:
Location: 27.4°N… 78.4°W
Moving: NW 15 MPH
Min pressure: 1006 mb/29.71 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
The depression is moving toward the NW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 48 hours, before the system begins to move more toward the NNW, heading for a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Forecast steering maps have been consistent in this, and I concur with the NHC forecast track, which is inline with the dynamic model guidance. After the 5 day scenario, this should recurve toward the NNE then NE.
The depression is in an area where upper level winds are favorable for further development, with an established upper level anticyclone over the system, which is forecast to move in tandem for the next 96 – 120 hours. Based on this, and the premise the system should move over slightly warmer sst’s, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast, which is a little higher than what the models are indicating. The last few frames of satellite loop imagery may indicate the system could be reaching T.S. status shortly.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 19.0N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 20.1N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 21.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 24.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 27.5N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 30.5N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
There are 2 other areas I am monitoring, however I will be looking at those tomorrow, and will include them in the update tomorrow.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)