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Good evening everyone!
An area of disturbed weather is located to the east of the St. Augustine FL. area. This weather is very disorganized, and is moving in a general slow NW direction. Albeit upper level winds are somewhat conducive, development is not expected as it moves onshore over the next 24 hours. This weather will however continue to enhance thunderstorm activity during this time over the Peninsula.
I am currently monitoring an area of disturbed weather north of Panama. This area has displayed some decent convection over the past 7 hours as noted in satellite loop imagery.
Upper level winds based on the CIMSS real time shear map, indicate upper level winds are somewhat conducive over the area, with the convection sitting north of an upper level anticyclone. A decent outflow pattern is noted in the upper level winds analysis. However, development of this area is unlikely, as current and forecast steering maps indicate this should move toward the west, and move inland over the Nicaragua/Honduras area over the next 24-36 hours. I will however continue to monitor this area for any changes..especially since this year has had some unexpected occurrences.
Enter Tropical Disturbance INVEST 90L. INVEST 90L moved off the African coast earlier today, and is now located approximately 150 ESE of the Cape Verde islands. As of the 18Z ATCF tracking product, the following information was available on INVEST 90L:
Location: 13.2°N 20.1°W
Moving: W at 10-15 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb/29.80 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
Based on my analysis of various satellite loop images, the lower level circulation appears to be slightly separated to the east of the thunderstorm activity. This may be due to the fact that the center is on the western periphery of the upper level anticyclone near the area at the moment.
Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, the upper level anticyclone should become better situated over the disturbance in approximately 42 hours, with the center of the disturbance being located very near or on the zone of zero zonal shear values. Based on this, and running the forecast out in time, upper level winds appear to remain favorable for further slow development over the next 5-6 days. Dry air is noted out in front of the system, with a light layer of SAL noted in the vicinity of the system. This may be why the NHC is calling for slow development, and has only designated a MEDIUM (30%) probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days as of this synopsis. Other than the possibility of dry air being a hindrance, the disturbance seems to have good upper air support over the next 5-6 days.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
Based on satellite loop imagery, and ATCF tracking information, the disturbance is moving just north of due west. Current steering indicates a weakness just to the north of the disturbance, with the flow the disturbance is in, moving toward the WSW. The combination of these two variables smooths out to a westward motion. I expect this motion to continue through tonight, with the system being nudged toward the WSW sometime tomorrow, returning to a westerly flow soon after.
Based on current satellite loop images, and forecast steering maps, the disturbance should move generally toward the west over the next 4 – 5 days. As based on current forecast information, the disturbance should begin to feel the effects of a deep layer trof approaching the U.S. east coast, and being to move more WNW. Analysis of the Global models shows the GFS bring this into the northern Lesser Antilles in about 6 days as a very weak low or open wave, and moves it over Puerto Rico on day 7 as a wave before lifting it WNW. The CMC pretty much follows suit, but brings it over the northern Lesser Antilles, and then just north, skirting the Puerto Rico coast in 7 -8 days.
Based on my analysis of everything, the track could come to fruition, however I do not put much in accuracy of steering layers forecast past 72 hours, and his again, as we have seen, will change until we get a better developed low level circulation. Only one dynamic model ran on the 18Z run this evening.
I will continue to monitor this disturbance for any significant changes over the next 96 hours.
I intend to have another synopsis in the morning sometime.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)