TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 03, 2014…11:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good morning everyone!

After an unexpected center reformation pretty far south yesterday afternoon, Dolly moved ashore early this morning between Tampico and Cabo Rojo.  The center reformation occurred approximately 60 -80 nm southwest, allowing the storm to be steered toward the west.  I don’t think in all of my years in tropical forecasting have I seen a center reformation occur as it did.  In any event, Dolly is now inland over Mexico, and should continue to dissipate over the next 24 – 36 hours.

DOLLY FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a MEDIUM (30%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation over the next 5 days, regarding a tropical wave which will be exiting the African continent sometime tomorrow.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

EAST ATLANTIC SATELLITE IMAGERY

EUMETSAT LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK TO ANIMATE)

Based on my analysis, other than cooler SST anomalies in the path, and some slight dry air, this wave will have favorable conditions for slow development upon exiting the African continent.  Analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS, and most recent zonal wind shear forecast from the GFS, valid at 06Z this morning, upper level winds are forecast to be pretty favorable for further development of this wave.  The upper level anticyclone over the wave at the moment, seen in the current wind shear map, is forecast to move in tandem with the wave, with another upper level anticyclone becoming established right behind it.  The shear forecast has been consistent now in the last few runs, of upper level winds remaining conducive over the MDR during the next 8 – 10 days.  To aid in reading the zonal shear, the purple line or contour you see is the “zero” line, or no shear.  For conditions conducive for development, we look at the scale at the bottom of the graphic, and look for values from the white block (basically zero), -10 area.  To clarify further, zonal shear is just that…winds from the east, and winds from the west are “zonal”, or straight flowing, as opposed to “meridional” in which dips to the north and south occur…like ridges and trofs.  The oranges and reds indicate the strength of westerly wind flow, and the blues and greens indicate the strength of easterly wind flow.  Now, if you loop the map, you can follow these areas.

CURRENT CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
wm7shr

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST MAPS



Based on this analysis, I am looking for slow development once this wave enters the Atlantic.  It will most likely lose its current thunderstorm activity once it hits the water, as the cooler SST anomalies pose a great difference in temperature, therefore reducing instability.  Given the premise of the upper level winds remaining favorable, in my best estimate, development will most likely be more notable 48 – 72 hours after the wave hits the ocean…after adjusting to the SST’s and surrounding environment.

Current steering indicates the wave may get a slight push southward as it exits the continent, and forecast steering layers maps indicate pretty much a westward motion through 120 hours valid from 12Z this morning.  Analysis of the 500 mb level out to that time period indicates the subtropical ridge pretty much breaks down, and this could begin a recurve at neat 40 -45W longitude.  This will all depend on the ridge/trof relationship at that time, and the strength of the system.  The GFS follows the scenario I just mentioned, while the CMC and ECMWF indicate a little more ridging around that time.  So, bottom line at the moment…NO, I cannot tell you if this will enter the Caribbean, nor can I tell you with 100% accuracy that this will recurve.  Umpteen million variables can change, as we just saw with Dolly.  With that said, I want to caution folks who post comments as “Yep, it’s a fish storm!”…or “Yes, this is going to enter the Caribbean in about 7 days”, as believe it or not, there are laypersons that read these posts, with some who will take these comments as gospel and begin to worry.  When I put out a forecast, it is from performing a detailed analysis of a wealth of various sites that provide me with various model data, satellite images, analysis of numerous forecast conditions through various levels in the atmosphere, etc.  When I mention detailed, I’m talking anywhere from one and a half to two hours of analysis of initial conditions, and then running everything out in time.  With the analysis also comes pattern recognition, which allows me to stay one step ahead in determining what a storm may do.

I will be monitoring this wave over the next 5 days for any significant changes to organization, and to the forecast pattern.  I will not have another update until probably tomorrow afternoon or early evening tomorrow.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 03, 2014…11:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Great up-date as usual Storm, and a GREAT explanation of how you evaluate the situation, and all the work you put in.

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm as always great update. Mr storm one of our local weather forecasters said a couple of days ago that we don’t have to worry the rest of the season is basically over for the northern gulf coast area. Mr storm I would be scare to say something like that,that the reason I am glad we have you.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…Dolly was a piece of work. I echo Elliot. This looks like another beauty and this IS why God gave us you. Have a great one Senior Chief!!

  4. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  5. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Morning Senior Chief,

    Thank you an excellent piece … like usual …. the EUMETSAT LOOP IMAGERY sure looks like a beautiful storm … the outflow looks good at this point …. zonal shear piece gave a clear and concise explanation, enlightened me. Umpteen million variables can change is the basic component that makes weather so interesting.

    That is one of the many reasons that G-d made you!

    Remember we have not hit the peak of the season yet … still have 3 months, 90 days, 2160 hours, 129,600 minutes (+-) so well keep watching ……

    Thank you MSC

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