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Good morning everyone!
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 99L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression FIVE. Based on the 18Z ATCF tracking update, the following information was available regarding Tropical Depression FIVE:
LOCATED: 20.1N…93.6 W
MOTION: WNW 13 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 MB / 29.80 IN.
The depression continues to move the WNW at around 13 mph. I expect this motion to continue through the next 24 hours, prior to a slight bend left in track, based on current and forecast steering layers maps.
Based on my analysis of satellite loop imagery various channels, the predominant flow in the GOMEX matches the current steering in the lower levels. Based on the last reported center position, and current visible, RGB, and shortwave IR loop imagery, it appears the low level center may be trying to reform more to the NE of that position at the time of analysis. It IS noted in satellite imagery that there may be competing centers, which is not unusual for a developing system having crossed the Yucatan Peninsula. IF this comes to fruition, then model guidance would most likely shift right, and the system would travel further north than forecast. If this were to occur, it would still come in south of the TX border. Based on my analysis, I do agree with the ATCF 18Z Dynamic Model Guidance and NHC forecast track, however at the moment, I am to the right of the TVCC/TVCN model consensus.
The last few frames of satellite loop imagery seem to indicate the depression may be trying to become very slowly organized. Currently, the depression is sitting under about 25 kts of northerly wind shear. However, as it moves further toward the west,wind shear decreases to around 10-15 kts. Once in that vicinity, the depression could begin to organize at a steadier rate. The forecast shear map shows zonal shear abating somewhat in about 24 hours, before shear increases once again, prior to landfall.
Dry air has affected the system, as noted by small, arced outflow boundary clouds noted in visible and RGB satellite loop imagery.
Based on this updated shear forecast, and dry air, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 20.1N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 21.1N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 22.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
48H 03/1800Z…DISSIPATED INLAND
Residents within the Tropical Storm Warning area should be prepared for possible flash flooding and mudslides when the system makes landfall
From the Public Advisory:
RAINFALL…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS…NORTHERN VERACRUZ…AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
I will continue to monitor this system closely, and should have another update sometime in the morning.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)