TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 30, 2014…7:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!  I hope those with the 3 day weekend enjoy their time off!

As you’ve seen me state dozens of times before, conditions in the tropics can change very quickly…this has been one of those 36-48 hour periods of just that…because I’m sure most of you are saying…”Storm…WTF”?  Don’t feel alone..I’ve been saying the same thing myself over the past 24 hours.  After pretty much of having really “nothing” yesterday morning, to a quick ramp up in consolidation of convection in the GOMEX near TX, to having an INVEST designated, we’re pretty much back to, well…NOT MUCH!

The area of thunderstorm activity that looked so ominous in the Gulf yesterday afternoon/evening had the upper air support becoming established by virtue of an upper level anticyclone taking shape, and signs of moderate vorticity near the lower levels just above the surface.  HOWEVER, all of this has pretty much moved inland, with the convective area collapsing.  I ran back in time analyzing satellite loop images, and it now appears dry air slipped in on the western portion of the convection, mainly with a dry slot intruding in from the SW.  Needless to say, there is nothing more to monitor in this area at the moment.  Guess you can say this kinda tinkled on my cornflakes.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Late yesterday evening, the ATCF / NHC had designated the area in the central Caribbean INVEST 99L.  Satellite  loop images from late yesterday afternoon through to mid to late evening did indicate this area to have become slightly better organized, as wind shear had relaxed for a brief period.  Analysis this morning of satellite loop imagery now shows a very disorganized system, if we can even label it that.  In my analysis of satellite loop images, it is very difficult to ascertain a low level circulation center.  However,based on the last known position from 00Z yesterday evening, and the motion of the disturbance over the past 8 – 10 hours (mainly based on current steering), the best I can make out where a “center” may be, was near 16.5N…82.5W based on the closeup shortwave IR2 loop. 

FLOATER IR4 SATELLITE LOOP

FLOATER IR2 LOOP

There is another vortex that appears just to the south of Jamaica, where all of the convection is noted.

Analysis of wind shear products tends to indicate wind shear from the NW has pretty much done this disturbance in.  It is also noted that vorticity is pretty much nil over the area based on analysis of the 925 mb and 850 mb vorticity maps.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

925 MB / 850 MB VORTICITY MAPS

Based on the current wind shear forecast which is from 00Z yesterday evening and hasn’t updated, indications are this area could remain under a sheared environment over the next 72 – 96 hours, with shear becoming only marginal thereafter as the area enters the Yucatan area.  Right now, based on the information I have to analyze (be nice to have updates quicker), this COULD NOT even develop.  In fact, the last run of model guidance as far as tracking was run at 00Z yesterday evening.  The last ATCF information was from that time, when I posted the position last night.  It should have updated at 06Z, but has not.  It may be that the ATCF could drop this as an INVEST sometime today should no improvement be seen.

Elsewhere, a large area of disturbed weather is located in the eastern Atlantic between 30W and 40W Longitude and is associated with the monsoon trof.  With the lack of clear visible or RGB satellite loop images, it was difficult to detect any turning in the wind field.  However, analysis of the 10m wind field of the GFS this morning, does indicate a shift in the wind field over the area.  This area is moving toward the west near 10 mph, and based on current and forecast steering maps, I expect this general motion to continue during the next 72 hours.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

GFS 10M WIND ANALYSIS
gfs_atlantic_006_10m_wnd_precip

Upper level winds are currently marginal in the area, however based on analysis of the wind shear forecast, and forecast motion of this weather, upper level winds could become conducive for possible slow development of this thunderstorm complex.  Thereafter, should the shear forecast not change and come to fruition, upper level winds will become unfavorable for development as a shear zone sets up, which is circled:

ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST
850200ushear13

I will continue to monitor this area, and the Caribbean over the next 72 hours for any significant changes.  I may not have another update until probably Sunday afternoon, or possibly Monday at sometime.

Have a blessed weekend.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 30, 2014…7:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. dellamom says:

    I know I don’t know much about forecasting, but in the last few frames of the 10N/34W feature, it sure looks to me like it wants to start spinning a bit.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah IAH…beware of the Blob. As you say…how quickly things change…gotta be driving the NHC nuts as well.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. That area you point out at about 34W and about 10N looks pretty impressive on satellite, I def. would watch that area. We’re in the “heart of the Cape Verde season. (Although this year doesn’t seem to have much “heart”!)

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