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Good day everyone! I hope those with the 3 day weekend enjoy their time off!
As you’ve seen me state dozens of times before, conditions in the tropics can change very quickly…this has been one of those 36-48 hour periods of just that…because I’m sure most of you are saying…”Storm…WTF”? Don’t feel alone..I’ve been saying the same thing myself over the past 24 hours. After pretty much of having really “nothing” yesterday morning, to a quick ramp up in consolidation of convection in the GOMEX near TX, to having an INVEST designated, we’re pretty much back to, well…NOT MUCH!
The area of thunderstorm activity that looked so ominous in the Gulf yesterday afternoon/evening had the upper air support becoming established by virtue of an upper level anticyclone taking shape, and signs of moderate vorticity near the lower levels just above the surface. HOWEVER, all of this has pretty much moved inland, with the convective area collapsing. I ran back in time analyzing satellite loop images, and it now appears dry air slipped in on the western portion of the convection, mainly with a dry slot intruding in from the SW. Needless to say, there is nothing more to monitor in this area at the moment. Guess you can say this kinda tinkled on my cornflakes.
Late yesterday evening, the ATCF / NHC had designated the area in the central Caribbean INVEST 99L. Satellite loop images from late yesterday afternoon through to mid to late evening did indicate this area to have become slightly better organized, as wind shear had relaxed for a brief period. Analysis this morning of satellite loop imagery now shows a very disorganized system, if we can even label it that. In my analysis of satellite loop images, it is very difficult to ascertain a low level circulation center. However,based on the last known position from 00Z yesterday evening, and the motion of the disturbance over the past 8 – 10 hours (mainly based on current steering), the best I can make out where a “center” may be, was near 16.5N…82.5W based on the closeup shortwave IR2 loop.
There is another vortex that appears just to the south of Jamaica, where all of the convection is noted.
Analysis of wind shear products tends to indicate wind shear from the NW has pretty much done this disturbance in. It is also noted that vorticity is pretty much nil over the area based on analysis of the 925 mb and 850 mb vorticity maps.
Based on the current wind shear forecast which is from 00Z yesterday evening and hasn’t updated, indications are this area could remain under a sheared environment over the next 72 – 96 hours, with shear becoming only marginal thereafter as the area enters the Yucatan area. Right now, based on the information I have to analyze (be nice to have updates quicker), this COULD NOT even develop. In fact, the last run of model guidance as far as tracking was run at 00Z yesterday evening. The last ATCF information was from that time, when I posted the position last night. It should have updated at 06Z, but has not. It may be that the ATCF could drop this as an INVEST sometime today should no improvement be seen.
Elsewhere, a large area of disturbed weather is located in the eastern Atlantic between 30W and 40W Longitude and is associated with the monsoon trof. With the lack of clear visible or RGB satellite loop images, it was difficult to detect any turning in the wind field. However, analysis of the 10m wind field of the GFS this morning, does indicate a shift in the wind field over the area. This area is moving toward the west near 10 mph, and based on current and forecast steering maps, I expect this general motion to continue during the next 72 hours.
GFS 10M WIND ANALYSIS
Upper level winds are currently marginal in the area, however based on analysis of the wind shear forecast, and forecast motion of this weather, upper level winds could become conducive for possible slow development of this thunderstorm complex. Thereafter, should the shear forecast not change and come to fruition, upper level winds will become unfavorable for development as a shear zone sets up, which is circled:
I will continue to monitor this area, and the Caribbean over the next 72 hours for any significant changes. I may not have another update until probably Sunday afternoon, or possibly Monday at sometime.
Have a blessed weekend.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)