TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 99L…EATL DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 30, 2014…7:45 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening!

Well, Dejavu…after dropping 99L for a brief early this morning, the NAVY ATCF system has once again begun running model data on the system.  Satellite loop imagery indicates convection has greatly increased since early this morning, although conditions are not quite favorable at the moment.  As of the 18Z ATCF BTK update, the following information was available on INVEST 99L:

LOCATED: 17.1N…85.3 W
MOTION: WNW 10 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 MB / 29.80 IN.

INVEST 99L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Based on analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, INVEST 99L is currently under about 20 knots of NWLY wind shear.  However, IF the center is located where the report states, 99L is moving into an area where wind shear has been on the decrease, and is only about 10 knots.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

The most current wind shear forecast which was from 12Z this morning, indicates zonal shear will be marginal over the next 24 hours, and as this disturbance begins to cross into the Yucatan Peninsula, upper level winds may become more conducive for further development.  Based on this analysis, some better organization should begin just prior to coming ashore over the Yucatan Peninsula, and once it enters the BOC / SW GOMEX, should begin to organize a little quicker.  Once in the SW GOMEX, this system will have to be monitored closely.

The system, based on what I can make out in satellite loop imagery (various channels), but mainly based on the current steering layer mean, is moving to the WNW.  Based on this and analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, I expect this motion to continue during the next 24-30 hours. Based on this, if the “center” is located where the ATCF and NHC say it is, I believe it will enter the GOMEX further north than shown in the NHC 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.  Right now, model guidance will definitely change over the next 48 hours, as the center seems not too well defined, so the initialization of the center is suspect at the moment. However, although there are only 2 dynamic guidance models available at the moment, the trend over the past 6 hours from 12Z to 18Z has been to the right.  This seems logical at the moment, given the current steering flow, unless riding currently noted over the northern GOMEX bends 99L back westward somewhat.  So, putting this all together, the system could come further north in the GOMEX than what is projected…this too will depend on where the center relocates after clearing the Yucatan Peninsula and exiting into the SW GOMEX.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

NHC GRAPHICAL 5 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TREND
99L DYNAMIC TREND

The area of disturbed weather I have been monitoring in the EATL near 10.0N…36.0W, appears to be getting slowly better organized.  This area is moving toward the west near 15 mph, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 48 – 60 hours.  Shortly thereafter, a more WNW motion could occur as the disturbance gets far enough west to begin to feel the effects of a weakness in the subtropical ridge, forecast to be located near 28N…70W.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

RAMSDIS CATL LOOP


Analysis of the current wind shear product indicates upper level winds are somewhat conducive for further development, and the zonal shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain fairly conducive during the next 72 – 84 hours.  After this, upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.  Regardless, I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.
  I would expect this to be designated INVEST 90L in about 24 hours, should the current trend continue

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 99L…EATL DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 30, 2014…7:45 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm this is one weird season by so for.Mr storm do you think as we head into September things with the hurricane season will get weirder around are area?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Any concerns for IAH with our bowls of Gumbo?? LOL

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