TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 29, 2014…1:10 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

The Tropical basins are somewhat active as of analysis time.  However, there is nothing even remotely organized at the moment.

NHC GRAPHICAL 5 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Lets begin close to home.  A surface trof draped across Florida and into the GOMEX, interacting with a tropical wave axis to the south, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the extreme northern Gulf, being enhanced mainly by a diffluent flow aloft:

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Current vorticity maps at the 925 mb and 850 mb level suggest that a surface low may be trying to take shape.  However analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates upper level winds to be marginal at best at the moment.

PSU E-WALL 925 MB VORTICITY SATELLITE OVERLAY MAP

CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY MAP

The most recent update of the wind  shear forecast indicates upper level winds may become somewhat more conducive over the W. GOMEX in about 24 hours.  Albeit I am not expecting development of this area, at least anytime soon, I will continue to monitor this area, should conditions become more favorable than forecast at the moment, and for the possibility of some organization before the area moves ashore.  Right now, low level steering indicates this whole area should continue off to the NW at around 10 – 15 mph, which would put everything inland during the next 48 hours.  Residents along the Texas coastal areas should be aware of  rip currents being produced by this activity.

NWS HAZARDS MAP (LINKED TO CORPUS CHRISTI NWS)

INTELLICAST BROWNSVILLE TX DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

An area of disturbed weather located in the central Caribbean sea remains disorganized as of analysis.  This area is what remains of the previous 97L.  Currently, the area is under 20- 25 kts of westerly shear. 

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The current wind shear forecast, based on the GFS zonal shear forecast map indicates this disturbed weather should remain under wind shear during the next 72 – 84 hours.  Now, based on the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC this morning, they locate this area near the Yucatan Peninsula / BOC area in about 5 days.  SHOULD this disturbance enter that region, upper level winds could become more conducive for development.  However, based on my analysis of the current low level steering from CIMSS, and forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, this may track further north, and could possibly enter the Yucatan Channel area, and into the GOMEX in about 4 – 5 days.  As it stands at the time of analysis with the products available, should this scenario occur, the disturbed weather would continue to be under unfavorable conditions.  I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes in the wind shear pattern and organization over the next 72 hours.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN 700 – 850 MB

Elsewhere, the Tropical Wave that exited the African continent is barely discernible in satellite imagery.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


There really isn’t any convection to speak of with this wave, at least right now.  Conditions are not conducive at this time, however looking at the wind shear forecast, upper level winds may become more conducive starting in about 72 hours from now. The steering forecast indicates this wave should continue toward the west during the next 72 – 96 hours.  I will continue to monitor this wave as it continues toward the west, for any significant changes.

I must say…this has to be one of the strangest seasons I’ve seen for being an ENSO neutral event with a warm bias.  Parameters still indicate the teleconnection between the oceanic and atmospheric areas of the Pacific have not occurred.  However, here in the Atlantic basin, you’d swear we were in an El Nino pattern.  Here we are in the “busiest” time of the season, climatologically speaking, and it just looks pathetic out there.  Usually, there are tropical waves just lined up over Africa from now, through the peak.  But, as you can see, the lack of convection, the continued dry air, and yes, some SAL is just somewhat mind boggling for this time of the season.  Right now, the dry air cannot be attributed to the subtropical ridge causing subsidence, as it has been, and is currently, not that strong.  The only other thing that I can think of is, the cooler SST anomalies in the MDR, which are currently ranging only 0.5C above average, as compared to the area north of 20N, the GOMEX, and the EPAC.  I know this may not seem significant, however mother nature “sees” these differences to relative, and the most net lift in the atmosphere is going to be where I just mentioned.  Other than that, this could wind up becoming a “back weighted” season, in that we see more activity in October and November with fronts that could stall, or trof splits in where energy breaks off and develops as a “hybrid” system.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALY MAP

UNISYS SST ANOMALY MAP

I will try to have another update in the morning prior to leaving for work.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 29, 2014…1:10 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm. That system in the northeastern Gulf isn’t a tropical entity, but it’s giving us a lovely mess of rain here this afternoon. My tomatoes and peppers and the lemon, grapefruit, satsuma and orange trees will be happy little plants this weekend. I hope the rest of the season has enough activity to keep everyone happy, but it all goes out to sea and way from land or any vessels. Just in case Anyone in a position to honor such requests is listening and is of a mind to oblige.

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