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Good day everyone!
Tropical Storm Cristobal continues a very slow motion to the north, and has strengthened since yesterday evening. As of the 8:00 A.M. Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Cristobal:
Location: 26.5°N 72.0°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb / 29.18 in
Max sustained: 75 mph
Cristobal is moving very slowly to the north, and is following a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid to upper level trof digging between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda. You can pretty much make out the “channel” the storm will follow:
Cristobal had been experiencing some NW shear, and the center was slightly exposed as of analysis this morning. However the shear tendency indicates wind shear was on the decrease, and upper level winds are forecast once again to become more conducive for development in about another 12 – 14 hours with the upper level anticyclone re-establishing itself over the cyclone.
Water vapor satellite loop imagery shows dry air to the western side of the hurricane, and appears dry air may be trying to intrude on the western side.
Currently, I agree with the NHC forecast intensity, however if dry air gets sucked in, this would arrest and steady strengthening. However should the upper level pattern pan out as forecast, convection could be allowed to build over the center, and this could help fight off some of the drier air. The possibility COULD exist that the NHC lowers the intensity forecast for a brief period until it is seen how all of this scenario interacts.
I will continue to monitor and post on Cristobal until the storm begins to pull out from near Bermuda.
Elsewhere, INVEST 97L has been deleted from the ATCF site data base, and model guidance is no longer being run at the moment. Satellite loop imagery shows a very ill defined wave which is pretty much elongated, and surrounded by dry air. Albeit upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development in about 2.5 days, I believe dry air may hinder this from development. I will however continue to monitor this area for any significant changes.
The NHC has taken interest in an area over the NW GOMEX. Albeit upper level winds become a little more conducive over the next 36 hours, I am not expecting development of this area given all the drier air seen in water vapor imagery. I will continue to monitor this however, in the event conditions change.
I believe the next area we may have to monitor closely, is the wave making it’s way across the African continent. The center of this circulation appears to be just east of the heavy convection noted in satellite images. Analysis of the Global Models, and forecast steering maps do not show this moving into the Atlantic for another 3 days or so. I believe it will hit water a little sooner however.
Analysis of the current zonal wind shear forecast shows that as soon as this enters the far EATL, upper level winds will be conducive for development, with a well established upper level anticyclone present. Also noted, is the lack of dry air around the wave…so conditions could be more favorable than what we have seen in the past few weeks.
Models right now differ in their solutions. The GFS wants to begin a recurve in about 5 days, while the CMC brings it westward. Time will tell once we see how and if it develops…however at the moment, I would have the tendency to side with the CMC, as I feel the GFS brings it off the African coast just a little further north…at about 12 – 13N. The CMC brings it off at 10N. Based on the current location, which is right around 10N, or slightly south, and based on cloud motion off the west coast of Africa, I am more inclined to go with the CMC. Of course, we all know this can change without notice. In any case, I will be monitoring this wave for development once it hits the Atlantic.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)