TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 23, 2014…ISSUED 7:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

 

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

You may click on the graphics for animations and close in views

YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED…

Your donation helps keep this site operational.  Funds assist in web hosting, weather software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.)
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good morning everyone!

Satellite presentation of Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L has become more defined as of this morning, with a much clearer picture to the center location

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L continues toward the WNW at around 15 mph.  As of the 06Z update of the ATCF tracking product, the following information was available on INVEST 96L:

POSITION: LATITUDE 19.9N…LONGITUDE 70.4W
MOVEMENT: WNW 15 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 40 MPH
PRESSURE: 1008 MB/29.77 IN.

The NHC in Miami designates the probability for Tropical Cyclone formation of INVEST 96L as HIGH (90%) during the next 5 days.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

The disturbance continues move WNW, around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, feeling the effect of a slight weakness in the ridge, located north of the central Bahamas, and off the SEUS.

CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING

I expect this motion to continue for approximately the next 24 – 30 hours, before more of a NW motion takes shape.  Based on analysis of Water Vapor and DVORAK satellite images (zoomed view), as well as steering winds overlay from the PSU e-WALL site, the flow just NW and NNW of the system is predominately westward.  The trof to the north has been reinforced by a trof digging in from well in the northern latitudes.  This has allowed for the very notable weakness in the ridge seen in current steering.  This is my basis for the projected WNW motion.

DVORAK SATELLITE LOOP

PSU E-WALL SATELLITE STEERING OVERLAY:

The recent run of the Forecast Steering Layers maps, valid for 12Z this morning, indicates the ridge center located over the Gulf Coast states to progress NEWD, and strengthen slightly by 72 – 96 hours in the forecast period as the system approaches the northern Bahamas area.  This would allow for the system not to be picked up right away by the weakness as far as a sharp recurve.  Based on this analysis, and given current satellite motion still suggests the “center” moving in a parallel fashion along the coast of Hispaniola, I am left right now in future track of the Dynamic Model consensus from the 06Z run.  This of course will change, once the disturbance clears Hispaniola, and further development takes shape, as to give the guidance models a more defined center of circulation to work with.  For now, the main concern will lie with residents of Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.  Residents of the Florida east coast, and interests of the SEUS coastal areas should continue to monitor this system in the event there are any significant changes in the steering pattern over the next 48 hours, as the GFS and 2 other models still suggest a Florida landfall at the moment.

06Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
96L dynamic

Satellite loop images indicate albeit the center may be still ill defined, the disturbance has become much better organized.

INVEST 96L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOPS

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP

The current wind shear product as of my analysis indicated the center was just NE of an upper level anticyclone.  This feature is allowing for divergence aloft, which is ventilating the system.  A northern outflow channel or jet if you will is pretty defined this morning, with somewhat weaker outflow noted around the southern quadrants, thus the current satellite appearance.

INVEST 96L SHEAR PRODUCT
tccapture

Based on the current and forecast wind shear, once the center clears Hispaniola, I believe we will see a more steady rate of organization.  Given this is still a developing system, it is easier for a weaker system of this nature to take advantage of the energy available, vice a tropical storm or hurricane that has been torn apart by mountainous regions.

Given these factors, along with analysis of current Ocean Heat Content, INVEST 96L cannot be ruled out at the moment of attaining Hurricane Status by the time it reaches the northern Bahamas area, if not before, should a LLC develop quickly once the disturbance clears Hispaniola.

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

Given that Tropical Storm force winds are associated with the system, residents of the Bahamas should be aware that Tropical Storm Watches and or Warnings could be issued on very short notice.  All this system basically has to do is close off a well defined LLC, and would most likely be upgraded to T.S. status vice T.D.

I will try to have another update sometime late this afternoon or early evening after work.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 23, 2014…ISSUED 7:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I echo everyone on thanking you and for your unending dedication!! It sure is starting to look like one for the fish Senior Chief.

    Nice Tuna comments Elliot. LOL!!

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Seems weird though. I thought if the storm stayed week they would generally move west and not feel the weekness. But then, what do I know…..Thanks Storm!

  3. Elliot Lisak says:

    Should we be preparing for “Battle Stations” …. in the next 72 hours. Your in the Captains Chair.

    What info I have been perusing, and my limited “meteorological education” looks like Tuna, Feels like Tuna, smells like Tuna and should as hell tastes like Tuna.

    Life use to be when I was a kid “Tex Antoine” (ABC New York) with his charcoal would make things easy. It was going to rain or not, hot or cold. Now I have all these high tech instruments and am still a neophyte.

    Therefore Commander let me know If Hollywood is in Cristobal’s gun sights.

    Thank You again, your like the firefighter who walks into danger every time
    and doesn’t care for his own safety, but does what has to be done…

    Respectfully,
    elliot

  4. Gma says:

    Thank you for all your hard work to keep us up to date with the storms. You are awesome!

  5. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm great forecast.Mr storm is there anyway this system could keep going west and miss the trough?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s