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Good morning everyone!
Satellite presentation of Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L has become more defined as of this morning, with a much clearer picture to the center location
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L continues toward the WNW at around 15 mph. As of the 06Z update of the ATCF tracking product, the following information was available on INVEST 96L:
POSITION: LATITUDE 19.9N…LONGITUDE 70.4W
MOVEMENT: WNW 15 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 40 MPH
PRESSURE: 1008 MB/29.77 IN.
The NHC in Miami designates the probability for Tropical Cyclone formation of INVEST 96L as HIGH (90%) during the next 5 days.
The disturbance continues move WNW, around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, feeling the effect of a slight weakness in the ridge, located north of the central Bahamas, and off the SEUS.
I expect this motion to continue for approximately the next 24 – 30 hours, before more of a NW motion takes shape. Based on analysis of Water Vapor and DVORAK satellite images (zoomed view), as well as steering winds overlay from the PSU e-WALL site, the flow just NW and NNW of the system is predominately westward. The trof to the north has been reinforced by a trof digging in from well in the northern latitudes. This has allowed for the very notable weakness in the ridge seen in current steering. This is my basis for the projected WNW motion.
The recent run of the Forecast Steering Layers maps, valid for 12Z this morning, indicates the ridge center located over the Gulf Coast states to progress NEWD, and strengthen slightly by 72 – 96 hours in the forecast period as the system approaches the northern Bahamas area. This would allow for the system not to be picked up right away by the weakness as far as a sharp recurve. Based on this analysis, and given current satellite motion still suggests the “center” moving in a parallel fashion along the coast of Hispaniola, I am left right now in future track of the Dynamic Model consensus from the 06Z run. This of course will change, once the disturbance clears Hispaniola, and further development takes shape, as to give the guidance models a more defined center of circulation to work with. For now, the main concern will lie with residents of Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. Residents of the Florida east coast, and interests of the SEUS coastal areas should continue to monitor this system in the event there are any significant changes in the steering pattern over the next 48 hours, as the GFS and 2 other models still suggest a Florida landfall at the moment.
Satellite loop images indicate albeit the center may be still ill defined, the disturbance has become much better organized.
The current wind shear product as of my analysis indicated the center was just NE of an upper level anticyclone. This feature is allowing for divergence aloft, which is ventilating the system. A northern outflow channel or jet if you will is pretty defined this morning, with somewhat weaker outflow noted around the southern quadrants, thus the current satellite appearance.
Based on the current and forecast wind shear, once the center clears Hispaniola, I believe we will see a more steady rate of organization. Given this is still a developing system, it is easier for a weaker system of this nature to take advantage of the energy available, vice a tropical storm or hurricane that has been torn apart by mountainous regions.
Given these factors, along with analysis of current Ocean Heat Content, INVEST 96L cannot be ruled out at the moment of attaining Hurricane Status by the time it reaches the northern Bahamas area, if not before, should a LLC develop quickly once the disturbance clears Hispaniola.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
Given that Tropical Storm force winds are associated with the system, residents of the Bahamas should be aware that Tropical Storm Watches and or Warnings could be issued on very short notice. All this system basically has to do is close off a well defined LLC, and would most likely be upgraded to T.S. status vice T.D.
I will try to have another update sometime late this afternoon or early evening after work.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)