TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 20, 2014…8:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

UPDATE…ISSUED AT 9:10 A.M. EDT…The center of INVEST 96L RELOCATES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.

Information contained in the ATCF track product indicates the center of 96L has reformed to the north.  The following information was contained in the 12Z update:

POSITION: LATITUDE 11.2N…LONGITUDE 52.7W
MOVEMENT: W 10 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 MB/29.80 IN.

12Z DYNAMIC TRACK GUIDANCE
96L dynamic

 

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L is still hanging in there this morning.  The following information regarding INVEST 96L was contained in the ATCF 06Z tracking product:

POSITION: LATITUDE 9.5N…LONGITUDE 52.5W
MOVEMENT: W 10 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 MB/29.80 IN.

The NHC in Miami has now increased the probability for Tropical Cyclone formation of INVEST 96L to MEDIUM (50%) during the next 5 days.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

The disturbance continues to move slowly toward the west, as it is currently embedded in a weak steering current within the monsoon trof, and is following the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge.

CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING

I expect this general motion to continue for most of today, with more of a WNW track becoming the case in approximately the next 24 – 30 hours.  Now, here’s where it gets tricky…you’ll notice in the dynamic model track guidance, which are the models we as forecasters use, in combination with other forecast methods, to determine TC track.  Now, you are probably saying to yourself…”but Storm, the models show it jumping quickly to the north”.  Yeah, I had to do a double take and shake my head on this.  However, upon analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, current steering, and various channels of satellite loop imagery, I cannot see anything that would allow INVEST 96L to make a “jump”.  In my meteorological opinion, here is what I believe may occur.  That second wave being monitored to the NE of 96L may have a part in this.  Albeit the actual low from the other disturbance kind of moves away, the shower activity and bulk of the energy from this wave may merge with 96L, in which a center reformation/relocation could very well occur.  This would explain that “jump” shown in the dynamic track guidance.  However, for the most part, based on satellite loops and forecast steering maps, INVEST 96L should continue on a WNW track upon entering the Caribbean sea, and I prefer the track of the TVCN / TVCC consensus models which currently have this passing over Jamaica.  BEAR IN MIND HOWEVER, this guidance is subject to change depending on strength of the system, and ANY center relocation that may occur.

06Z ATCF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
96L dynamic

Analysis of satellite loop images shows 96L is still disorganized at the moment.  The disturbance as of 06Z (2 a.m. EDT) was located south of an upper level anticyclone.  Albeit not optimal at the moment for development, this is not too terribly detrimental.

INVEST 96L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

RAMSDIS CIRA GOES EAST

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Based on my analysis of the current Zonal Wind shear forecast, upper level winds are forecast to become very conducive for further development as it enters the Caribbean.  You will notice the upper level anticyclone over the area 96L is currently forecast to pass through.   Although the wind shear forecast is projected to become almost optimal, development of this system should be slow to occur, as it is monsoonal in nature.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR 36 / 96 HOUR FORECAST

Intensity guidance has backed off on intensity this morning, with the majority bringing this to only Tropical Storm intensity.  Now, the ones most commonly used, as far as what I have fond in research, do bring this to hurricane intensity.  Is it possible?  Yes.  This is all contingent however on the factors I mentioned above, but is possible, given that should the wind shear forecast come to fruition and we do get development, the current forecast track thinking takes this system into some relatively high OHC, which would aid in strengthening, if all other conditions are very favorable.

06Z INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
ATCF 96L INTENSITY

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

Interests in the Lesser Antilles and NE Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system  For the Windward islands / Barbados area, unless there is any significant changes that occur in development over the next 24 – 36 hours, I am not expecting much in the way of wind, however heavy rainfall COULD occur as this moves over the area.  I HIGHLY recommend residents in these areas monitor their local NWS statements and forecasts regarding precipitation forecasts.

I will continue to monitor this disturbance, and will try to possibly have another update very late this evening.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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12 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 20, 2014…8:45 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m with Elliot. Are 95L and 96L in close enough proximity to merge. That would be interesting.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Hi Storm, I know different factors play into where this possible storm may go, but in your opinion would you say it has a good chance of getting into the GOM?

  3. Jen says:

    Thanks Storm!

    Good question, Elliot. I was wondering the same thing, if the two can merge into one “Frankenstein” storm, sorta like Sandy did with the Nor’easter, like jumping on an escalator and “movin’ on up”. Would it be easy for those two systems (Invest 96L and the other one) to merge if they were headed in the same direction, if the one behind goes faster and “catches up”?

    And what about the storms in the Pacific? Invest 92E, Lowell, and or Karina? (I’m not as up to date with those as I am with those in the Atlantic, ‘cuz I’m in Florida, so I don’t know.) Would it be possible for 2 (or three systems) to collide, like an “x”, if they were going in those directions at the same time? Or even merge? I guess it would depend on how fast they were going?

    I’m just curious how they all would interact with each other. I always think of magnets: opposites “attract” and likes “repel”, and how does that compare to storms? Or like riding that “escalator” of currents/wind/etc?

    Just curious 🙂

  4. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for keeping us posted in spite of your busy work and family schedules. We appreciate what you do and understand when you cannot. I notice that the eastern system, which showed a northward curve to the outline yesterday, now shows only west or west-northwest. That is not good. Also, the temperature for the Gulf south of Louisiana is at the upper extreme of the color line, which frankly scares the heck out of me because something getting into the central Gulf, at least the first one before the waters are stirred up, would have that patch of extremely not water to feed off of, if I am reading this correctly. Added to the fact that, should this system get into the Gulf, it would be right about our “Mr. Bill” timeframe. (“Oh, no!”) It is good that your review does not show this as being anything major and that is why I am so glad to have your wisdom. If I had just seen the graphics, I’d be in a panic right now. God bless you, Storm, and take care of yourself. You are the only you we have.

  5. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Morning Senior Chief,

    Should both of these invests converge into 1 system with high heat content and virtual no wind shear and with the MJO present is there any chance of this becoming a Super Hurricane or a Monster Storm!

    I look back to the Wilma year … I think it was 2005 or 2006 we in Hollywood had more then enough damage with the Tropical Storms. A 40 mph we had no power for over 3 weeks!

    I look forward to your thoughts ….. I have a large number of clients whose homes need to protect because most of my clients liven the North and rely on me.

    “Keep the java coming”

    Best Regards,
    elliot

    • Jen says:

      I live in Naples, so I remember Wilma for sure. We survived Andrew and he was more powerful than Wilma. But since Wilma came from the Gulf, she affected us more, so we were out of power for a week, whereas we were only out of power for maybe 3 days from Andrew. I can’t imagine being out of power for 3 weeks, or more. Yikes!

  6. Richard. says:

    I live in Barbados & want to thank you for these informative analyses of weather systems approaching our area. Too often the focus is on what might happen after the systems passes through the islands & heads to the US seemingly forgetting that there are people living on those islands desperate for information as well.
    Again thank you & keep up these excellent reports.
    Richard.

  7. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm I have a question? Were I live our highs Monday and Tuesday of next week our in the mid 90,s how would that effect the system?

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