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I apologize for not getting to questions on my site this evening…had to work overtime tonight at work, so in order to get an analysis performed and an update put, I had to avoid questions this evening.
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L is beginning to slowly take on some better structure. As of the 00Z update of the ATCF racking product, the following information was available on INVEST 96L:
POSITION: LATITUDE 12.5N…LONGITUDE 54.3W
MOVEMENT: WNW 10 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 MB/29.80 IN.
The NHC in Miami has now increased the probability for Tropical Cyclone formation of INVEST 96L to HIGH (70%) during the next 5 days.
The disturbance appears to be moving wnw this evening at 10 mph, around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
I expect this general motion to continue for the next 24 hours, with more of a pronounced WNW track afterward. Current steering is being dictated by a slight weakness just north of the disturbance, and the westerly flow at near 13N. As the disturbance continues westward, it’s direction will be influenced by the westerly flow mentioned,and the weakness close to the Bahamas, which should impart the more WNW motion. Based on analysis of various satellite loops, the models will most likely shift again, as the area where the approximate center is reported, is still a broad circulation, which is noted in IR2 Shortwave loop imagery. However the position reported appears to be a dominant center, which is verified by CIMSS vorticity maps from the 850 mb to 500 mb level. Based on this, and analysis of lower level cloud motion in RGB and VIS satellite loop imagery, and careful analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps, I am in the middle of the 18Z Dynamic Model track guidance in line with the consensus models TVCN / TVCC / TVCA and HFWI, which bring this system over Puerto Rico in about 72 – 84 hours. As I have stated numerous times, this is likely to change once the disturbance becomes much better organized. However, I am basing this track on the forecast steering as between the two forecast steering models and analysis of the latest Global Models run, the CMC is further east, or to the right, and the GFS is inline with the consensus..this being said, the GFS would seem a little more plausible at the moment, as I believe the CMC has the disturbance initialized a little further north, and then intensifies it too much after clearing Puerto Rico, thus a stronger storm re-curving.
Analysis of satellite loop images indicates 96L is beginning to become slowly better organized this evening. The disturbance is still located south of an upper level anticyclone, however analysis indicates this feature has continued to slowly move closer toward the center of the system, which is inline with what the GFS zonal wind shear forecast has been showing. Shear tendency also indicates wind shear has been decreasing over the past 24 hours, and the area continues to be ventilated by a combination of this upper level anticyclone, and the upper level low still backing away from the Caribbean.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
Based on analysis of the current Zonal Wind shear forecast, upper level winds are still forecast to become very conducive for further development as it enters the Caribbean. You will notice the upper level anticyclone over the area 96L is currently forecast to pass through.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles NE Caribbean, and Greater Antilles should monitor the progress of this system closely.
Albeit track guidance and steering may change, residents of the FL. east coast and SEUS may wish to review their hurricane preparedness plans just as a precaution. This is not saying a hit will occur…it’s just good common sense.
The intensity forecast modeling has seemed to come into a little bit better agreement, and given the current forecast parameters of favorable upper level winds and higher Ocean Heat Content, I CANNOT fully rule out this system attaining Category ONE hurricane status after clearing the Greater Antilles, and heading toward the Bahamas. I am calling for further organization over the next 24 – 36 hours, and a depression could develop by the end of the time frame.
I will continue to monitor this disturbance closely, and will not have another update until tomorrow evening.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)