TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L EVENING FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 20, 2014…9:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Greetings everyone!

I apologize for not getting to questions on my site this evening…had to work overtime tonight at work, so in order to get an analysis performed and an update put, I had to avoid questions this evening.

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L is beginning to slowly take on some better structure.  As of the 00Z update of the ATCF racking product, the following information was available on INVEST 96L:

POSITION: LATITUDE 12.5N…LONGITUDE 54.3W
MOVEMENT: WNW 10 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 MB/29.80 IN.

The NHC in Miami has now increased the probability for Tropical Cyclone formation of INVEST 96L to HIGH (70%) during the next 5 days.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

The disturbance appears to be moving wnw this evening at 10 mph, around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING

I expect this general motion to continue for the next 24 hours, with more of a pronounced  WNW track afterward.  Current steering is being dictated by a slight weakness just north of the disturbance, and the westerly flow at near 13N.  As the disturbance continues westward, it’s direction will be influenced by the westerly flow mentioned,and the weakness close to the Bahamas, which should impart the more WNW motion.  Based on analysis of various satellite loops, the models will most likely shift again, as the area where the approximate center is reported, is still a broad circulation, which is noted in IR2 Shortwave loop imagery.  However the position reported appears to be a dominant center, which is verified by CIMSS vorticity maps from the 850 mb to 500 mb level.  Based on this, and analysis of lower level cloud motion in RGB and VIS satellite loop imagery, and careful analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps, I am in the middle of the 18Z Dynamic Model track guidance in line with the consensus models TVCN / TVCC / TVCA and HFWI, which bring this system over Puerto Rico in about 72 – 84 hours.  As I have stated numerous times, this is likely to change once the disturbance becomes much better organized.  However, I am basing this track on the forecast steering as between the two forecast steering models and analysis of the latest Global Models run, the CMC is further east, or to the right, and the GFS is inline with the consensus..this being said, the GFS would seem a little more plausible at the moment, as I believe the CMC has the disturbance initialized a little further north, and then intensifies it too much after clearing Puerto Rico, thus a stronger storm re-curving.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER

00Z ATCF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
96L dynamic

Analysis of satellite loop images indicates 96L is beginning to become slowly better organized this evening.  The disturbance is still  located south of an upper level anticyclone, however analysis indicates this feature has continued to slowly move closer toward the center of the system, which is inline with what the GFS zonal wind shear forecast has been showing.  Shear tendency also indicates wind shear has been decreasing over the past 24 hours, and the area continues to be ventilated by a combination of this upper level anticyclone, and the upper level low still backing away from the Caribbean.

INVEST 96L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

RAMSDIS CIRA GOES EAST

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR PRODUCT

Based on analysis of the current Zonal Wind shear forecast, upper level winds are still forecast to become very conducive for further development as it enters the Caribbean.  You will notice the upper level anticyclone over the area 96L is currently forecast to pass through.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR 24 / 96 HOUR FORECAST

 

00Z INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
ATCF 96L INTENSITY

 

Interests in the Lesser Antilles  NE Caribbean, and Greater Antilles should monitor the progress of this system closely.

Albeit track guidance and steering may change, residents of the FL. east coast and SEUS may wish to review their hurricane preparedness plans just as a precaution.  This is not saying a hit will occur…it’s just good common sense.

The intensity forecast modeling has seemed to come into a little bit better agreement, and given the current forecast parameters of favorable upper level winds and higher Ocean Heat Content, I CANNOT fully rule out this system attaining Category ONE hurricane status after clearing the Greater Antilles, and heading toward the Bahamas.  I am calling for further organization over the next 24 – 36 hours, and a depression could develop by the end of the time frame.

I will continue to monitor this disturbance closely, and will not have another update until tomorrow evening.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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14 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L EVENING FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 20, 2014…9:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like guidance is really bending 96L right. Do you see a ridge building to re-curve it?

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm if. High pressure builds back in after the trough moves out. Wouldn’t that move the system back west?

  3. dellamom says:

    It is interesting how the western edge of the probability blob has swelled out. I am assuming the eventual direction is less certain now than earlier.

  4. Jordan Brown says:

    Storm, this is very concerning for me as I live in SE Florida. In addition to what you just stated, the fact that the MJO is in it’s upward phase in this basin and a Kelvin Wave moving over our area just makes it that much more scarier. Almost like the “Perfect Storm” in a different way.

  5. Wm. Dobson says:

    Watching from St.Croix. Thanks for info, Seems we are often forgot about down here.

  6. Greg Goodman says:

    so mr storm to you this is not a gulf threat?I did not mean to ask this question.

  7. Jerilyn (jerrob) says:

    Thanks for taking the time tonight for the update even though you had to work late 🙂

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