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Good day to everyone!
Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the two areas in the CATL we have been monitoring remain very disorganized at the moment, and shower activity is very limited. Analysis of Water Vapor imagery indicates moisture has increased within the ITCZ, and cloud tops that are noted have been cooling over the past hour as noted in AVN IR 4 channel imagery. You will also note an upper level low NW of the area, north of the Lesser Antilles, backing away…this will allow for ventilation of the disturbed weather approaching the Caribbean.
Current analysis of wind shear from the CIMSS product shows upper level winds are marginal at best at the moment. An upper level anticyclone is noted just north of the broad area of lower pressure, and is probably producing some divergence, allowing for the cloud tops mentioned to extend further into the atmosphere.
The current NHC Tropical Weather Outlook designates a LOW (20%) probability of tropical cyclone development regarding the two areas over the next 5 days.
Now, one thing I haven’t seen all season…there is model support for development from one of these areas, over the next 7 – 10 days, with models widely divergent as to strength, with the ECMWF indicating a very small low with one closed isobar, to the CMC projecting a hurricane…however the point being ALL of the models are sniffing out “something” during this time frame in the forecast period. Albeit both areas look very ragged this morning, the models may be onto something, and I cannot rule out slow development over the next 5 – 7 days. The question is…which area? This is difficult to discern at the moment, based on the divergence in model timing. Some indicate it could be the area closer to the Windward islands, others indicate the area further east.
Going back and looking at satellite loops, given that the area is so broad with vorticity at the 850 mb level, I cannot even rule out right now that these merge into one system. In any event, it appears the consensus is slow development begins in about 72 hours. I have seen some mention that when the low projected to enter the Caribbean gets there, shear and dry air will affect it. IF the current wind shear forecast from the GFS materializes, this may not be the case. The current projection is for upper level winds to become more conducive for development with zonal shear subsiding and an upper level anticyclone developing over the Lesser Antilles in approximately 60 – 72 hours from 06Z this morning. In addition, indications are that the MJO will enter phase 1 with a moderate to strong signal over the next 7 days. This appears as if it may come to fruition, given the expansive increase in water vapor we have seen over the past 2 days in the Atlantic.
Should either low continue to knock down the dry air, I believe we could very well see some slow organization begin within the specified time frame.
Both waves continue on a general westward track around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which is currently set up in a classic negative NAO type pattern.
I expect this motion to continue for the next 72 hours, and based on he current run of the forecast steering layers maps, area number 2 may be steered just a bit further toward the west, but should experience some affect from the weakness in between the 2 the two centers of the ridge.
One word of caution, or advice if you will…DO NOT be freaked by what the GFS and CMC show at the moment, as we have no real low level circulations to speak of at this time, and ANY intensity forecast this far out in time, is grossly inaccurate. My main purpose in model analysis, is just to see if the models indicate any possible development. I ALWAYS base my intensity and track forecasts on near real-time analysis and 72 hour forecast parameters of various tools such as wind shear, moisture, satellite loops and forecast steering maps projections.
I will continue to monitor this broad area during the next 72 – 96 hours for any significant changes.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)