TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 19, 2014…11:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

You may click on the graphics for animations and close in views

YOUR DONATION IS NEEDED…

Your donation helps keep this site operational.  Funds assist in web hosting, weather software purchases and upgrades, and monthly professional site subscriptions (advanced computer model products for various forecast tools, Severe weather forecasting tools, etc.)
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day to everyone!

Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the two areas in the CATL we have been monitoring remain very disorganized at the moment, and shower activity is very limited.  Analysis of Water Vapor imagery indicates moisture has increased within the ITCZ, and cloud tops that are noted have been cooling over the past hour as noted in AVN IR 4 channel imagery.  You will also note an upper level low NW of the area, north of the Lesser Antilles, backing away…this will allow for ventilation of the disturbed weather approaching the Caribbean.

CATL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP

CATL IR4 SATELLITE LOOP

RAMSDIS CIRA GOES EAST SATELLITE LOOP

Current analysis of wind shear from the CIMSS product shows upper level winds are marginal at best at the moment.  An upper level anticyclone is noted just north of the broad area of lower pressure, and is probably producing some divergence, allowing for the cloud tops mentioned to extend further into the atmosphere.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

The current NHC Tropical Weather Outlook designates a LOW (20%) probability of tropical cyclone development regarding the two areas over the next 5 days.

NHC GRAPHICAL 5 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Now, one thing I haven’t seen all season…there is model support for development from one of these areas, over the next 7 – 10 days, with models widely divergent as to strength, with the ECMWF indicating a very small low with one closed isobar, to the CMC projecting a hurricane…however the point being ALL of the models are sniffing out “something” during this time frame in the forecast period.  Albeit both areas look very ragged this morning, the models may be onto something, and I cannot rule out slow development over the next 5 – 7 days.  The question is…which area?  This is difficult to discern at the moment, based on the divergence in model timing.  Some indicate it could be the area closer to the Windward islands, others indicate the area further east.

GFS OUTPUT
GFS

ECMWF OUTPUT
ECMWF

CMC OUTPUT
CMC

UKMET OUTPUT
UKMET

NAVGEM OUTPUT
NAVGEM

FIM MODEL OUTPUT

Going back and looking at satellite loops, given that the area is so broad with vorticity at the 850 mb level,   I cannot even rule out right now that these merge into one system.  In any event, it appears the consensus is slow development begins in about 72 hours.  I have seen some mention that when the low projected to enter the Caribbean gets there, shear and dry air will affect it.  IF the current wind shear forecast from the GFS materializes, this may not be the case.  The current projection is for upper level winds to become more conducive for development with zonal shear subsiding and an upper level anticyclone developing over the Lesser Antilles in approximately 60 – 72 hours from 06Z this morning.  In addition, indications are that the MJO will enter phase 1 with a moderate to strong signal over the next 7 days.  This appears as if it may come to fruition, given the expansive increase in water vapor we have seen over the past 2 days in the Atlantic.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST 72 HOURS

NCEP GEFS MJO INDEX FORECAST

Should either low continue to knock down the dry air, I believe we could very well see some slow organization begin within the specified time frame.

Both waves continue on a general westward track around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which is currently set up in a classic negative NAO type pattern.

LAYER MEAN STEERING

I expect this motion to continue for the next 72 hours, and based on he current run of the forecast steering layers maps, area number 2 may be steered just a bit further toward the west, but should experience some affect from the weakness in between the 2 the two centers of the ridge.

One word of caution, or advice if you will…DO NOT be freaked by what the GFS and CMC show at the moment, as we have no real low level circulations to speak of at this time, and ANY intensity forecast this far out in time, is grossly inaccurate.  My main purpose in  model analysis, is just to see if the models indicate any possible development.  I ALWAYS base my intensity and track forecasts on near real-time analysis and 72 hour forecast parameters of various tools such as wind shear, moisture, satellite loops and forecast steering maps projections.

I will continue to monitor this broad area during the next 72 – 96 hours for any significant changes.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

14 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 19, 2014…11:00 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. dellamom says:

    Not to be a killjoy here, but the furthest west system, which I think is at about 12N 50W … you know, the one heading more westward … is now ORANGE. But at least it is not red, does not have a number or, God forbid, a name. And we can be sure that Storm will keep us posted on its progress.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    I know that isn’t a for sure thing right now (not freaked out at all) but the GFS looks a little close to home. Thanks for your updates Storm!

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. It is so nice to have access to your wisdom and experience! As long as I know you are watching these puppies, I will stay calm. However, August 29 (Katrina and Isaac) through September 9 (Betsy) is a very very very bad time period for this area, so I tend to be a little more concerned about anything that may reach us during that window. You are my “go-to guru,” especially since there have been several instances where the NHC said something either wasn’t particularly worrisome (Galveston devastation) or that it wasn’t coming here (Katrina, among many others) and that situation changed drastically and suddenly.

  4. stormwatcherci says:

    I have both eyes on this. Thanks for the update Storm.

  5. Jen says:

    Thanks for the updates! Love this website! I’m a true-blue Florida Native “Cracker” (Naples), so that means I have lived through my share of storms. Weather is just so fascinating and it always intrigues me how all of it works.

    I still remember when Andrew was coming. It didn’t seem threatening at first, because it seemed so “harmless” and was “so far away”. So, the meteorologists at the time, said “No worries, it probably won’t come to anything”, because the technology couldn’t determine how it was actually developing. Then things changed quite rapidly, and it came straight at us, like a “fast ball”.

    So I am very thankful today that the technology can give us a better understanding of what is actually going on, and improved models can offer predictions with better accuracy. They can’t really tell us “exactly” how things are going to turn out, but at least they give us a better idea of what might happen.

    Thanks again! XOXO

  6. Greg goodman says:

    Thank you mr storm.

  7. stefanie says:

    Lol. Thanks Storm. Not freaked out here. Just watching. And as ever glad you are too. 🙂 I really started paying attention last night to the same thing you did. The models all seem to be latching on to development…. of something…from somewhere…lol. Have a great day! And thank you!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s