CATL DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 18, 2014…9:35 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Just a little more activity in the tropics this morning.  The main area to be noted is in the CATL.  The NHC still has the Graphical Tropical Weather outlook centered on the wave located near 42W.  WHY?…I have no idea.  The area from that location, eastward IS a broad area of low pressure, however as seen in CATL Water Vapor loop imagery, the area more favorable as far as less dry air, is the low to the east, near 33W.  This area has been sustaining convection now for the past 24 hours, and the area of moisture has spread out slightly more during the over night hours.  The NHC still designates a MEDIUM (30%) probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days with the broad low near 42W.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of satellite loop images, lower convergence, and upper divergence maps this morning, I still believe the area to watch is the low located east of this area, near 33W.

CATL AVN / RGB SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

CATL WATER VAPOR LOOP

RAMSDIS CIRA GOES EAST SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The wind shear product from CIMSS at 0900Z indicated a diffluent pattern on the wind shear map over the low at 33W.

CIMSS EATL WIND SHEAR

Analysis of the Zonal Wind Shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds may become more conducive for development in about 48 – 72 hours as this wave continues toward the west over the next 3 – 4 days.  I do believe IF this can sustain convection, and initiate a better LLC during the next 24 hours, this could be designated INVEST 96L.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Based on my analysis of the current run of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, this low should continue westward, and based on my track thinking, I do believe some further, slow organization is probable, given the increase in moisture, and the current shear forecast.

Satellite imagery also indicates another area coming off the African continent, and another located over the continent approaching 0W longitude. I will be monitoring these areas closely, as well as the area in the CATL, as we should begin to see an upswing in activity as an upward motion phase of the MJO enters the region.  The current MJO Multivariate Index forecast from the GFS members, with the ECMWF following suite, except much weaker, indicates the MJO moving into Octant or Phase 1, and displaying a moderate to strong signal over the next 10 days.  This means an increase in tropical moisture and lift in the atmosphere over the CATL/AFRICA region.  This seems to be verifying at the moment, as if you go back to water vapor imagery, you will notice an increase in water vapor from 35W longitude, eastward.

SAL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES

GEFS MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX FORECAST

AFRICAN SATELLITE EUMETSAT

RAMSDIS CIRA METEOSAT SATELLITE LOOP

Another item of note is…the NAO is forecast to remain strongly negative over the next 7 – 10 days.  This implies a weakening of the Icelandic low, and the subtropical ridge.  As you can see, being noted in my previous forecasts regarding this, trades are slower, which is now evident by these system moving slower to the west, and somewhat of a recovery in SST anomalies in the MDR.  What all of this eludes to is, a build of of heat over the tropical Atlantic over the next few days.

NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST

I will continue to monitor the situation in the tropics, and since Global models have apparently not handled cyclogenesis  very well, I  am not going to mention what they indicate or don’t indicate, and all forecasts will be based on near real time information, and 4 -5 day forecast parameters of the various elements listed in this forecast.

I will have another update tomorrow.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to CATL DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 18, 2014…9:35 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yep…NHC is back down to zero…10% at 120 hours. There are waves over 30E and 40E that looks very impressive!! What do you think. Or…is it way too early to tell? Thanks Senior Chief!!

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the update Storm!

  3. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Morning Sr. Chief,

    Thank you for this morning’s insight. Much appreciated.

    I am attempting to understand your comment about “What all of this eludes to is, a build of of heat over the tropical Atlantic over the next few days.” How much heat can the Atlantic absorb in a few days”?

    • Well, with weaker trades…enough to get thins going…sst’s could recover to a point where instability would increase, along with weaker trades concentrating heat more over one area, instead of the evaporative rate being so high.

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