TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 17, 2014…4:15 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening everyone!

I had a post prepared last night regarding INVEST 95L and the area of where the remnant of 94L is located, however I had personal business to attend to, and was not able to fully complete the synopsis.

INVEST 95L for the most part had dissipated.  It appears through satellite analysis what may have occurred is, the mid levels of circulation decoupled from the wave due to the stronger easterly shear that has been present, with the low level “swirl” being left behind.  This is seen in the RAMSDIS  CIRA METEOSAT loop image near 15.0N…21.0W.  If you’re curious as to how you can tell easterly shear is in place…you’ll note in the satellite loops how the upper level clouds, or cirrus clouds which are composed of ice crystals, fan out ahead of the rest of the cloud structures.  Not as prominent as last night, but still notable.

In any case, the NHC in Miami has taken interest in the area near 39.0W, which would be the remnant of INVEST 94L.  A broad circulation is noted, however convection has once again diminished vastly since last night.  The NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation during the next 48 hours with this area, and a MEDIUM (30%) probability through 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

I do agree to some extent with the NHC, however the atmosphere is stable due to dry air.  Stability can be deduced by all the Stratocumulus clouds surrounding this low.  Here is a satellite picture from an old Cape Verde shot showing Stratocumlus.  Stratocumulus indicates stability.

STRATOCUMULUS DECK NEAR CAPE VERDE

CURRENT CATL AND RAMSDIS CIRA METEOSAT IMAGE LOOPS

Based on my analysis of the current Zonal Wind Shear forecast, I do agree with the NHC in that conditions could become more conducive for development in a few days…possibly beginning in about 60 – 72 hours, as shear values lessen, and the low moves into an almost “zero” zonal shear area.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Looking at the current overall picture, I would take more of an interest in the area east of the low the NHC is watching, albeit both areas have shown an improvement in the TPW values since a few days ago.  Convection has increased over the past few hours, and a mid level circulation seems to be in place.  This will be moving into the same favorable conditions in a few days. 

MIMIC TPW LOOP

TPW DEFINITION:

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 

Precipitable water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain. As a depth, the precipitable water is measured in millimeters or inches. Often abbreviated as “TPW” = total precipitable water.

The next area to watch will be another wave getting ready to exit off the African continent which displays cyclonic turning at this time.

EUMETSAT IMAGE
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color-all

EUMETSAT LOOP (CLICK FOR ANIMATION CONTROL)

Analysis of the steering layers forecast maps indicates the steering flow should allow for a general W to WNW steering regime for these areas mentioned…over the next 72 – 96 hours.

I will continue to monitor these areas for any significant changes during the next 4 – 5 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 17, 2014…4:15 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm how do the models handle these systems? Do you think it’s just a matter of time before one developed?

  2. Monty says:

    Wow Storm…sure seems like NHC is chasing a couple of wild Geese…back and forth.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Probably just me…but I’m kind of liking the way the next system to exit Africa is looking.

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