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The Tropical Disturbance I have been monitoring along the African coast was designated INVEST 95L yesterday evening by the NHC. The following information on 95L is based on the 06Z ATCF/BTK product through the ATCF / NHC…ATCF = (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system):
MOTION: WNW 5 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 MB / 29.80 IN
The disturbance is currently moving toward the WNW at a very slow 5 – 7 mph as steering currents have weakened, and is currently seeking out the weakness to its NW which I have circled in the hatched area on the steering layers map. Based on this, I expect this motion to continue for most of today. Thereafter, as I had mentioned in a previous synopsis, a nudge more toward the WSW could occur, as analysis of the current steering layers forecast map run indicates the weakness on the eastern portion of the ridge to pretty much fill, with the predominate flow becoming WSW then west around 12 – 24 hours thereafter. Albeit not very conclusive as of my morning analysis, this is pretty much reflected in the 06Z Dynamic Model Track Guidance suite. In a nutshell, one cannot rule this as a DEFINITE re-curvature at the moment until a better steering regime can become established.
Satellite imagery this morning indicates INVEST 95L is looking more disorganized. Most of the deep convection that was noted around the center has dissipated, and the system has pretty much lost that tight, symmetrical look. Based on my analysis, we have two culprits at work here at the moment…at the position INVEST 95L is in, it is encountering some southerly wind shear, and cooler SST’s. The cooler SST’s are most likely the reason convection is not able to be sustained at the moment.
Putting it all together, my forecast thinking is…in order for INVEST 95L to survive, it needs to make the possible WSW shift in track in order to take advantage of the warmer SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures). In addition, SHOULD IT SURVIVE today, and be able to move as forecast at this time, the current Zonal Wind Shear forecast indicates 95L could track into a more favorable upper level environment, given that zonal shear is forecast to relax over the next 48 – 72 hours. The NHC had projected a MEDIUM (50%) probability of tropical cyclone formation for the next 5 days, citing the shower and thunderstorm activity had continued to become better organized. At the time of their outlook update, this was the case…however the conditions I have mentioned have taken a very quick toll on the system. I’d like to say KUDOS to my friends at the NHC for an outstanding job so far during this “difficult” season.
I will continue to monitor this disturbance for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)