TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 16, 2014…6:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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The Tropical Disturbance I have been monitoring along the African coast was designated INVEST 95L yesterday evening by the NHC.  The following information on 95L is based on the 06Z ATCF/BTK product through the ATCF / NHC…ATCF = (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system):

LOCATED: 15.1N…19.8W
MOTION: WNW 5 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 MB / 29.80 IN

The disturbance is currently moving toward the WNW at a very slow 5 – 7 mph as steering currents have weakened, and is currently seeking out the weakness to its NW which I have circled in the hatched area on the steering layers map.  Based on this, I expect this motion to continue for most of today.  Thereafter, as I had mentioned in a previous synopsis, a nudge more toward the WSW could occur, as analysis of the current steering layers forecast map run indicates the weakness on the eastern portion of the ridge to pretty much fill, with the predominate flow becoming WSW then west around 12 – 24 hours thereafter.  Albeit not very conclusive as of my morning analysis, this is pretty much reflected in the 06Z Dynamic Model Track Guidance suite.  In a nutshell, one cannot rule this as a DEFINITE re-curvature at the moment until a better steering regime can become established.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN
wm7dlm1

06Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
95L dynamic

Satellite imagery this morning indicates INVEST 95L is looking more disorganized.  Most of the deep convection that was noted around the center has dissipated, and the system has pretty much lost that tight, symmetrical look.  Based on my analysis, we have two culprits at work here at the moment…at the position INVEST 95L is in, it is encountering some southerly wind shear, and cooler SST’s.  The cooler SST’s are most likely the reason convection is not able to be sustained at the moment. 

RAMSDIS CIRA METEOSAT LOOP IMAGERY

SST SNAPSHOT
tccapture

SST ANOMALIES

Putting it all together, my forecast thinking is…in order for INVEST 95L to survive, it needs to make the possible WSW shift in track in order to take advantage of the warmer SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures).  In addition, SHOULD IT SURVIVE today, and be able to move as forecast at this time, the current Zonal Wind Shear forecast indicates 95L could track into a more favorable upper level environment, given that zonal shear is forecast to relax over the next 48 – 72 hours.  The NHC had projected a MEDIUM (50%) probability of tropical cyclone formation for the next 5 days, citing the shower and thunderstorm activity had continued to become better organized.  At the time of their outlook update, this was the case…however the conditions I have mentioned have taken a very quick toll on the system.  I’d like to say KUDOS to my friends at the NHC for an outstanding job so far during this “difficult” season.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST 06Z

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

I will continue to monitor this disturbance for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 16, 2014…6:15 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm I know you would do a great job at the national hurricane center. I am like others on here I think they look at your site.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. This looks a little more promising. I still think NHC is visiting your blog. 🙂

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