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Good evening everyone!
I wanted to take the opportunity to thank ALL of the entities who maintain the various sites to which I retrieve my graphics…mainly satellite images and such, as well as those who maintain the information needed for analysis…to whom without allowing for the posting of said images or allowing access to pertinent information, keeping my clients thoroughly up to date and safe during a storm threat would be almost impossible.
Although the majority of the Atlantic basin is quiet, I have been monitoring 2 areas of disturbed weather in the far eastern Atlantic. These waves have been mentioned in my previous forecasts, prior to them exiting the African coast. The first is a wave located near 10.5 N…29.0W. The wave has a 1012mb surface low associated with it. The second wave is located just on the African coastline near 12.0N…16.0W. Both disturbances are moving in a slow, general westward motion as the steering flow is only around 10 kts.
Both of these should remain on a westward motion over the next few days, with the wave just exiting the continent nudging just a little northward before being nosed back southward and continuing a westward motion.
Based on my analysis this evening of various parameters such as water vapor imagery, forecast RH and TPW modeling, forecast Zonal Wind Shear, etc., I believe what may occur is as follows…the wave near 29.0W is displaying a decent circulation, however that old culprit dry air and SAL may hamper any further organization. Water vapor loop imagery does tend to indicate a slight increase in moisture around the area, which appears to be possibly spreading out. However SAL and dry air are in the environment north of the center of the low, as mentioned in the NHC Tropical Wave discussion.
The second wave appears to be in a better environment, and more convective activity is noted with this wave. This wave appears to be the stronger of the two, at least convection wise which will allow for continued moistening of the atmosphere around it.
Analysis of the Zonal Shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds should be marginal for the next 96 – 120 hours with some moderate easterly wind shear, but as both disturbances move westward, upper level winds should become more conducive for slow development. I am a little surprised, however it may be due to the dry air over the Atlantic, as to why the NHC hasn’t designated either area an INVEST. I do believe we may see the wave near the African coast become designated during the next 48 hours should convective activity maintain or increase.
I will continue to monitor both areas during the next 72 – 96 hours, however I am taking more of an interest in the second disturbance, as the environment should be a little more conducive. A couple of other parameters that have me curious to this wave, and activity in general, is the NAO forecast and MJO forecast. The latest forecast for the NAO shows the index dipping pretty strong into negative territory. Based on this, we should see a decrease in the trade winds, which would allow for more heat to build up over the MDR, and possibly cut down on strong SAL outbreaks. This would also allow for a weakening in easterly shear, and should allow for some increase in vertical instability seeings how subsidence should relax.
Albeit this will remain to be seen, the GFS has trended further into Octant 1 of the MJO Multivariate index, along with a couple of the ECMWF Ensemble models trending that way, albeit not as strong. The GFS forecasts some decent upward vertical velocities over the EATL and Caribbean in about 5 days, and 10 days, respectively. These are 2 of the reasons I suspect the second disturbance has the better chance at development, and why I am looking for a possible an increase in tropical activity over the next 10 days.
I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes, and I intend of posting another update in the a.m.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)