TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 11, 2014…11:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Satellite imagery this morning indicates no real change in structure of Tropical Disturbance INVEST 94L as it continues to move toward the west.

As of the 12Z ATCF / FTP update, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:

LOCATED: 12.3N…26.2W
MOVEMENT: W – 15 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 25 MPH
PRESSURE: 1011 MB / 29.85 IN

The disturbance continues to move toward the west around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  I expect this motion to continue during the next 72 hours, with a possible southward nudge given the forecast orientation of the ridge, which may already be occurring.  I base this on the fact in that I do not agree with the 12Z position contained in the above information.  Current satellite loop imagery tends to indicate a center reformation / relocation may be occurring, with the center being located closer to 8.5N Latitude, 29.7W Longitude.  I would like to thank RAMSDIS and CIRA personnel for making these images accessible.

INVEST 94L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY FROM RAMSDIS

CATL WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

Based on this, and analysis of the current run of the forecast steering layers maps, valid for 12Z this morning, I believe this will track a little further south.  Given this, and being only two of the dynamic guidance models ran this past run at 12Z, I am with the southern model at the moment, however further south than what is shown.  Should 94L develop and not dissipate, it could enter the Caribbean Sea in about 5 -6 days, however this far out, the steering pattern is always subject to change.  But thus far, track guidance models and forecast steering have been consistent over the past few runs.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
94L dynamic

GFS ENSEMBLE TRACK FORECASTS

NCEP ENSEMBLE TRACK FORECAST FROM 00Z

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

One can note in the loop images, that the main bulk of convection is slightly west of what appears to be the center at this time.  This is due to the stronger easterly shear at the moment.  Analysis of the latest run of the GFS zonal wind shear forecast map indicates as 94L continues west, easterly shear is forecast to relax in about 36 – 48 hours, and as it approaches the Windward islands, upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development by 114 – 120 hours.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Upon analysis of water vapor imagery loops, visible loops, and current and forecast TPW maps, I am not detecting any dry air intrusion at the moment, and it appears 94L may be maintaining a small moisture barrier around itself.  Based on all of this information, INVEST 94L will have to be able to continue fighting off dry air, and will have to become better vertically stacked in order to survive.  Based on the premise of entering more favorable conditions in about 48 hours or so, I believe we will continue to see further slow organization near that time, and if conditions do come to fruition, I cannot rule out a Tropical Depression by at least 72 – 96 hours.  Given the current structure and environmental conditions, I concur with the NHC decreasing the tropical cyclone formation probability to 30% over the next 5 days, until I can see if more favorable conditions pan out.  The current run of the Intensity Forecast models still suggests development from the majority, all though at the moment, I feel they are a little generous with the intensity forecast at the moment.

12Z INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
ATCF 94L INTENSITY
NHC GRAPHICAL TWO 5 DAY PROBABILITY

I have been getting questions abut my forecasts on social sites, as to whether or not I think this will enter the GOMEX.  My answer to that is…it is still TOO EARLY to determine that, seeings how forecast steering goes out to only 144 hours (6 days), and this system would be at least 10 days out from even making.  IF I feel it will enter the Gulf, should it hold together, trust me…it will be in the forecast.  I try to design my forecasts in a way, that if you read them very carefully, and think about what is written, they should answer any questions you have as far as forecast track and strength.

I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes, and if time allows,  I will try to have another update this evening sometime.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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12 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 11, 2014…11:30 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm I will be listening.

  2. javier says:

    stormw what you think of all dry air in Atlantic some saying season is cancel because the storms this year been kill by all dry air in tropical????

    • Javier,
      I don’t think it will be a total bust. I was just looking at the precipitable water forecast, and within the next 7 – 10 days there is supposed to be a pick up in TPW off of Africa. The NAO is forecast to be moderate negative over this next week, and the slowing of the trades could allow for the sst’s to recover somewhat, which may add a little moisture to the atmosphere. I think we may see the bulk of the season in Sep., and in Oct probably north of 20N where the warmer anomalies are.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I was out of the loop over the weekend. Got a shingles shot that developed into mild cellulosis in the arm, but that’s better than getting the shingles! I was surprised to see 94L, but not surprised that you are all over it. One thing I’ll say about this season so far, there has been something to watch more than there hasn’t lately, and luckily none of it has involved loss of life to my knowledge. Thank God and thank Storm for keeping us up to date on these matters.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m guessing Haiti is safe through the week…nonetheless…passing this on. Thanks as always Senior Chief!!

  5. stormwatcherci says:

    Thank you Storm. Location you posted are my thoughts exactly.

  6. Thanks Storm, we will keep an eye on this one.

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