SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 09, 2014…11:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER CENTER

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Good late evening everyone!

I generally don’t post this late, however I won’t be able to post early tomorrow, so I just wanted to give a heads up.

As you know, I do monitor the tropics on and off when they are not busy.  For about the past 6 hours or so, I have been keeping an eye on one of the areas I had mentioned in the last forecast synopsis.  It does appear we have a Tropical Wave that has just exited the African continent, and is located near 10.0N…20.0W.  Analysis of satellite loop imagery from RAMSDIS and EUMETSAT on and off from late this afternoon to current, tends to indicate  a well developed wave, which has become better organized during the past 3 -4 hours.  This wave has a nice ball of convection associated with it, and is the most convection I have seen associated with a wave thus far this season.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

RAMSDIS METEOSAT LOOP

EUMETSAT IMAGE (CLICK AND WORK CONTROL PANEL TO LOOP IMAGE)

Earlier, analysis of the current wind shear over that area indicated strong easterly wind shear…however the wind shear tendency indicates shear has reduced somewhat, and more of an outflow type pattern has evolved, albeit not in the sense of an upper level anticyclone.  This slight reduction in shear may be the cause for this wave in looking a little more healthy.

Analysis of water vapor products earlier today led me to believe dry air could be a factor in knocking this down…however through the course of the day, and up to the release of this forecast, moisture in the atmosphere has seemed to become more conducive.  This is noted in both Water Vapor imagery and the MIMIC TPW (Total Precipitable Water) loop.

SAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MID AND UPPER LEVEL

MIMIC TPW LOOP

I am not too concerned at the moment with any significant development over the next 48 hours or so, however this may have to be monitored given that coming off at 10.0N, the current forecast steering pattern suggests this may remain low enough in latitude to come west, across the MDR.  Should this occur, conditions could improve as analysis of Zonal Wind Shear indicates upper level winds may become more favorable if this wave moves due west, mainly past 40W.  Based on this, we could see some slow development of this, if it doesn’t have to contend with dry air.  In any event, it would not surprise me to see this designated an INVEST if the current structure holds together for another 24 hours should convection persist.

I will try and issue another update probably sometime tomorrow evening.  If not, I should have one on Monday morning sometime.

Have a blessed Sunday!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 09, 2014…11:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…sending out…just in case.

  2. greg goodman says:

    Thankyou mr storm do you think things might get going now?

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