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Good late evening everyone!
I generally don’t post this late, however I won’t be able to post early tomorrow, so I just wanted to give a heads up.
As you know, I do monitor the tropics on and off when they are not busy. For about the past 6 hours or so, I have been keeping an eye on one of the areas I had mentioned in the last forecast synopsis. It does appear we have a Tropical Wave that has just exited the African continent, and is located near 10.0N…20.0W. Analysis of satellite loop imagery from RAMSDIS and EUMETSAT on and off from late this afternoon to current, tends to indicate a well developed wave, which has become better organized during the past 3 -4 hours. This wave has a nice ball of convection associated with it, and is the most convection I have seen associated with a wave thus far this season.
EUMETSAT IMAGE (CLICK AND WORK CONTROL PANEL TO LOOP IMAGE)
Earlier, analysis of the current wind shear over that area indicated strong easterly wind shear…however the wind shear tendency indicates shear has reduced somewhat, and more of an outflow type pattern has evolved, albeit not in the sense of an upper level anticyclone. This slight reduction in shear may be the cause for this wave in looking a little more healthy.
Analysis of water vapor products earlier today led me to believe dry air could be a factor in knocking this down…however through the course of the day, and up to the release of this forecast, moisture in the atmosphere has seemed to become more conducive. This is noted in both Water Vapor imagery and the MIMIC TPW (Total Precipitable Water) loop.
I am not too concerned at the moment with any significant development over the next 48 hours or so, however this may have to be monitored given that coming off at 10.0N, the current forecast steering pattern suggests this may remain low enough in latitude to come west, across the MDR. Should this occur, conditions could improve as analysis of Zonal Wind Shear indicates upper level winds may become more favorable if this wave moves due west, mainly past 40W. Based on this, we could see some slow development of this, if it doesn’t have to contend with dry air. In any event, it would not surprise me to see this designated an INVEST if the current structure holds together for another 24 hours should convection persist.
I will try and issue another update probably sometime tomorrow evening. If not, I should have one on Monday morning sometime.
Have a blessed Sunday!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)