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Good day everyone!
At the risk of sounding like a broken record:
Satellite loop imagery over the Atlantic indicates pretty stable conditions once again, as noted by Stratocumulus clouds in the lower levels, and drier air noted in Water Vapor imagery.
Here is another another satellite perspective from RAMSDIS
As you can see, the Atlantic has been plagued with dry air. This has seemed to be the case for most of the season thus far. In addition to SAL outbreaks, a big factor in this is the subtropical ridge, otherwise known as the Azores-Bermuda high. In fact, where the driest air is located, you can actually see the flow around the subtropical ridge. Although the NAO has been reflecting pretty much a NEUTRAL NAO status, the 30 and 90 day MSLP anomalies indicate the subtropical ridge has been stronger than average. This induces subsidence (sinking air). Air still sinks with high pressure, regardless of the MLSP, however the stronger pressure creates greater subsidence. As this air sinks, it compresses and warms, thereby drying out the surrounding atmosphere.
I am not looking for any improvement in the short term, unless the NAO Ensemble Forecast pans out, in which the MSLP averages should lower. This would allow for less subsidence, as well as slower wind flow over the MDR, which if the condition lasts long enough, could allow for some SST warming in the MDR. ALL of this would allow for more moisture to build, as well as a heat build up in the MDR.
Based on my analysis of the Global Models today, it’s still pretty much status quo until around the middle of the month, when the West African Monsoon circulation seems to makes an appearance, with some of the models indicating a weak area of low pressure coming to fruition near the Cape Verde islands. This would coincide with an increase in humidity levels over the area at 700 mb – 500 mb based on the current forecast. As you can see however, humidity hasn’t been that abundant over the African Continent, nor has Precipitable Water for that matter.
The current wind shear forecast still indicates upper level winds to become more conducive for development in about 7 – 10 days with the most favorable conditions being north of the MDR.
The current GFS forecast of the MJO indicates more favored conditions around mid month as well.
To reiterate, we may have some Cape Verde systems, however I do not see a busy Cape Verde season happening.
I will continue to monitor the tropics, and unless anything looks suspicious over the next couple of days, I will not have another update until Monday.
Have a blessed weekend.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)