TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 08, 2014…2:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

At the risk of sounding like a broken record:

Satellite loop imagery over the Atlantic indicates pretty stable conditions once again, as noted by Stratocumulus clouds in the lower levels, and drier air noted in Water Vapor imagery.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Here is another another satellite perspective from RAMSDIS

VIS /IR2

WATER VAPOR

As you can see, the Atlantic has been plagued with dry air.  This has seemed to be the case for most of the season thus far.  In addition to SAL outbreaks, a big factor in this is the subtropical ridge, otherwise known as the Azores-Bermuda high.  In fact, where the driest air is located, you can actually see the flow around the subtropical ridge.  Although the NAO has been reflecting pretty much a NEUTRAL NAO status, the 30 and 90 day MSLP anomalies indicate the subtropical ridge has been stronger than average.  This induces subsidence (sinking air).  Air still sinks with high pressure, regardless of the MLSP, however the stronger pressure creates greater subsidence.  As this air sinks, it compresses and warms, thereby drying out the surrounding atmosphere.

NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST

NAO

30 DAY MSLP ANOMALIES FROM ESRL

90 DAY MSLP ANOMALIES

I am not looking for any improvement in the short term, unless the NAO Ensemble Forecast pans out, in which the MSLP averages should lower.  This would allow for less subsidence, as well as slower wind flow over the MDR, which if the condition lasts long enough, could allow for some SST warming in the MDR.  ALL of this would allow for more moisture to build, as well as a heat build up in the MDR.

Based on my analysis of the Global Models today, it’s still pretty much status quo until around the middle of the month, when the West African Monsoon circulation seems to makes an appearance, with some of the models indicating a weak area of low pressure coming to fruition near the Cape Verde islands.  This would coincide with an increase in humidity levels over the area at 700 mb – 500 mb based on the current forecast.  As you can see however, humidity hasn’t been that abundant over the African Continent, nor has Precipitable Water for that matter.

700 MB RH/HT FORECAST (RH = RELATIVE HUMIDITY)

500 MB RH/HT FORECAST (RH = RELATIVE HUMIDITY)

850 MB PW/HT (PW = PRECIPITABLE WATER  HT = HEIGHT)

The current wind shear forecast still indicates upper level winds to become more conducive for development in about 7 – 10 days with the most favorable conditions being north of the MDR.

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
GFS 200 MB STREAM

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

The current GFS forecast of the MJO indicates more favored conditions around mid month as well.

GFS MJO FORECAST

To reiterate, we may have some Cape Verde systems, however I do not see a busy Cape Verde season happening.

I will continue to monitor the tropics, and unless anything looks suspicious over the next couple of days, I will not have another update until Monday.

Have a blessed weekend.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 08, 2014…2:35 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Mailing something to you Next week.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Have a great weekend!!

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