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Good evening everyone. The tropics are once again quiet!
Satellite loop imagery over the Atlantic indicates pretty stable conditions once again, as noted by Stratocumulus clouds in the lower levels, and drier air noted in Water Vapor imagery.
Analysis of the Global Models do not indicate any development over the next 7 days. They do however indicate a low I mentioned in my previous forecast, as the West African Monsoon circulation becomes noted.
One area I am going to be looking at is over central Africa at the moment. This may be the only wave that has half a chance once it enters the EATL after exiting Africa. Right now, I am not expecting anything given the amount of dry air, and recent SAL outbreak noted in SAL satellite imagery. Again, with the Indian Ocean Di-Pole forecast to remain negative, I am not looking for a big Cape Verde season given that the wave train may not be all that active. In fact, I am not very impressed with the wave train THUS FAR.
Given all of the dry air and dust that has been fairly prevalent most of the season over the MDR, I decided to analyze relative humidity values forecast for the next 10 – 16 days. Based on this analysis, it tends to support my thinking of not seeing a notable increase in activity until near mid month. The GFS shows an increase in RH near the African coast beginning by the 15th, with cyclonic turning noted in the 700 mb wind field. In addition, analysis of forecast wind shear fields (shear values / 200mb streamline data) indicates upper level winds to become favorable for development within the next 10 days over the Atlantic basin…however the most favorable area appears to be north of 15N Latitude, and in the subtropical area NW of the Bahamas.
NOAA has issued their Hurricane Season Outlook. One thing I disagree with is, their take on the wind shear as far as the Atlantic…wind shear over the MDR has been on the decline, and for the average, has been at or below climatological levels since about mid June. As far as El Nino in their update, I have to disagree with that as well, as the ENSO update issued still indicates the teleconnection between the ocean and atmosphere has not occurred, and even if El Nino sets in late, there is usually a lag time between the ocean and atmospheric teleconnection, so I doubt El Nino has any impact on the season, at least from now to the peak.
NOAA HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK UPDATE
I will continue to monitor everything, and will have another update in the a.m.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)