TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 07, 2014…6:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good evening everyone.  The tropics are once again quiet!

Satellite loop imagery over the Atlantic indicates pretty stable conditions once again, as noted by Stratocumulus clouds in the lower levels, and drier air noted in Water Vapor imagery.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the Global Models do not indicate any development over the next 7 days.  They do however indicate a low I mentioned in my previous forecast, as the West African Monsoon circulation becomes noted.

One area I am going to be looking at is over central Africa at the moment.  This may be the only wave that has half a chance once it enters the EATL after exiting Africa.  Right now, I am not expecting anything given the amount of dry air, and recent SAL outbreak noted in SAL satellite imagery.  Again, with the Indian Ocean Di-Pole forecast to remain negative, I am not looking for a big Cape Verde season given that the wave train may not be all that active.  In fact, I am not very impressed with the wave train THUS FAR.

EUMETSAT IMAGERY
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color-all

SAL IMAGERY
truecol-1

Given all of the dry air and dust that has been fairly prevalent most of the season over the MDR, I decided to analyze relative humidity values forecast for the next 10 – 16 days.  Based on this analysis, it tends to support my thinking of not seeing a notable increase in activity until near mid month.  The GFS shows an increase in RH near the African coast beginning by the 15th, with cyclonic turning noted in the 700 mb wind field.  In addition, analysis of forecast wind shear fields (shear values / 200mb streamline data) indicates upper level winds to become favorable for development within the next 10 days over the Atlantic basin…however the most favorable area appears to be north of 15N Latitude, and in the subtropical area NW of the Bahamas.

700 MB HEIGHT AND HUMIDITY

200 MB STREAMLINES
GFS 200 MB STREAM

NOAA has issued their Hurricane Season Outlook.  One thing I disagree with is, their take on the wind shear as far as the Atlantic…wind shear over the MDR has been on the decline, and for the average, has been at or below climatological levels since about mid June.  As far as El Nino in their update, I have to disagree with that as well, as the ENSO update issued still indicates the teleconnection between the ocean and atmosphere has not occurred, and even if El Nino sets in late, there is usually a lag time between the ocean and atmospheric teleconnection, so I doubt El Nino has any impact on the season, at least from now to the peak.

NOAA HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK UPDATE
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140807_hurricaneoutlook_atlantic_update.html

TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIND SHEAR

I will continue to monitor everything, and will have another update in the a.m.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 07, 2014…6:30 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’ll pass this on. ENSO is getting frustrating. Do you think it will go further positive? Winter is right around the corner in Colorado and a strong El Nino spells major Winter Storms. Thanks Senior Chief!!

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