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Good day everyone!
Today is my late work day, so there will not be an evening update.
The Atlantic basin pretty much remains quiet as of my analysis this morning.
The atmosphere over the Atlantic basin is still pretty stable, which is indicated by the Stratocumulus clouds noted in the RGB loop image, and dry air in the Water Vapor loop image. There is noted however, an increase in moisture from the Equator to 10N Latitude in the far Eastern Atlantic.
Global models do not show any development over the next 7 days, however the main 3 Global models are indicating a very weak low in IVO the Cape Verde islands OOA the 14th of the month. None of these models actually develop it per se, however I will continue to monitor these models for consistency over the next 7 days.
I will be monitoring a couple areas over the African continent over these next few days, as there are a couple of waves that have caught my eye…one should be entering the Atlantic over the next 48 hours, and another is over Central Africa. They are noted in the EUMETSAT satellite loop imagery by the cyclonic rotation (you can put these in motion by clicking on the images). You’ll also not that in the RGB Dust composite loop, a pink to magenta area north of the waves…this is African dust. Albeit dust is seen, the conditions I mentioned due to the effect of the cooling Gulf of Guinea SST Anomalies, seem to have taken care of a major portion of the SAL, as noted in the following image.
The current wind shear map tends to indicate a decreasing wind shear tendency during the past 24 hours within the MDR. The wind shear forecast indicates most likely within the next 8 days, upper level winds begin to become more conducive for development, and as of the current run, become very favorable in 2 weeks. Putting all this together, it pretty well matches up with what I have stated about the season following climatology. Even though conditions are forecast to become more conducive, the one hold back to any significant development would be the well below average vertical instability over the Atlantic.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)