TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 06, 2014…10:10 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Today is my late work day, so there will not be an evening update.

The Atlantic basin pretty much remains quiet as of my analysis this morning.

ATLANTIC BASIN WIDE ANGLE LOOP

The atmosphere over the Atlantic basin is still pretty stable, which is indicated by the Stratocumulus clouds noted in the RGB loop image, and dry air in the Water Vapor loop image.  There is noted however, an increase in moisture from the Equator to 10N Latitude in the far Eastern Atlantic.

Global models do not show any development over the next 7 days, however the main 3 Global models are indicating a very weak low in IVO the Cape Verde islands OOA the 14th of the month.  None of these models actually develop it per se, however I will continue to  monitor these models for consistency over the next 7 days.

ECMWF
ECMWF

GFS
GFS
CMC
CMC SURF

I will be monitoring a couple areas over the African continent over these next few days, as there are a couple of waves that have caught my eye…one should be entering the Atlantic over the next 48 hours, and another is over Central Africa.  They are noted in the EUMETSAT satellite loop imagery by the cyclonic rotation (you can put these in motion by clicking on the images).  You’ll also not that in the RGB Dust composite loop, a pink to magenta area north of the waves…this is African dust.  Albeit dust is seen, the conditions I mentioned due to the effect of the cooling Gulf of Guinea SST Anomalies, seem to have taken care of a major portion of the SAL, as noted in the following image. 

EUMETSAT IR CHANNEL

EUMETSAT RGB DUST CHANNEL

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP

SAL MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGE

The current wind shear map tends to indicate a decreasing wind shear tendency during the past 24 hours within the MDR.  The wind shear forecast indicates most likely within the next 8 days, upper level winds begin to become more conducive for development, and as of the current run, become very favorable in 2 weeks.  Putting all this together, it pretty well matches up with what I have stated about the season following climatology.  Even though conditions are forecast to become more conducive, the one hold back to any significant development would be the well below average vertical instability over the Atlantic.

GFS ZONAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ATLANTIC BASIN VERTICAL STABILITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGY GRAPH FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN
peakofseason

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 06, 2014…10:10 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for all you do. I hope the job is going well and that you won’t need it for very long. I had mentioned awhile back about earthquakes in conjunction with hurricanes, and noted today that one of the Hawaiian Islands had experienced an earthquake in advance of the approaching hurricane(s?). I don’t remember in prior decades hearing about earthquakes in close space and time proximity to hurricanes. That may have been because of less accurate reporting or detection techniques, but it is interesting to consider.

      • dellamom says:

        The thing that got me noticing the earthquake/hurricane thing is that after Katrina I had heard reports of a very minor earthquake in the Gulf off the Louisiana coast very shortly after the storm, and then after another hurricane I heard about a minor quake in the vicinity of that storm. Both were in areas that are not prone to earthquakes. Years earlier I had obtained earthquake insurance on my house (it was so inexpensive it was almost free), and everyone laughed at me. For about a year after Katrina, new earthquake insurance was not being written in this area due to the offshore mini-quake. I think, in light of all the recent quake/cane combos, I will just keep my earthquake insurance.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. An area of concern for you is one for me. Should things come to fruition…could this wave affect Haiti in the next 7-10 days?

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