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Good day everyone!
Bertha attains hurricane status.
As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC in Miami, the following information was available:
11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 3
Location: 27.6°N 73.6°W
Moving: N at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb / 29.47 in
Max sustained: 80 mph
Albeit the satellite signature of Bertha doesn’t seem that organized…analysis of vorticity maps indicates she is a little better vertically stacked at the moment. This is attribute to the relaxing of wind shear over the past 2 – 3 hours. An upper level anticyclone which has been positioned to her west, has been progressing slowly westward, and is forecast to be over Bertha this afternoon. The upper level outflow has improved do to this, and is noted by the fanning out of the cirrus canopy on the eastern and southern periphery of the hurricane.
Should the wind shear forecast pan out…I would not be surprised to see Bertha possibly strengthen slightly more in between advisories. Based on the shear forecast, Bertha does have the short window of opportunity to maintain her current intensity or possibly strengthen slightly. I do concur with the NHC intensity scheme at the moment, provided the wind shear forecast does not come to fruition.
NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION
Bertha is now heading toward the north around the west side of the subtropical ridge, and into the weakness in the ridge. I expect this motion to continue for today, with a turn beginning toward the NNE in about 12 hours, if not a little sooner. Based on analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, I concur with the NHC forecast track which pretty much mimics the 12Z Dynamic Model Track Guidance. Once Bertha clears the latitude of Bermuda, and begins the NE track, I will be discontinuing updates on her.
Elsewhere, I am currently monitoring an area of developing low pressure off the NE Florida coastline associated with a weakening frontal boundary. Albeit I am sort of apprehensive on any development, this area does have support from the NCEP Multi Model and Ensemble products for development during the next 2 – 5 days. The current wind shear forecast does not really support development, however being that upper level winds would follow the track this low would take, there could be that ONE possibility this area would begin to develop sub-tropically, retaining mainly baroclinic features.
The Tropical Wave that had exited the African continent yesterday has lost its convection, and has been pretty much stationary. Satellite loop imagery indicates some cyclonic turning in the wind field. Upper level winds are not really conducive at the moment due to strong easterly wind shear. The forecast does however call for upper level winds to become more conducive within the next 96 hours over the CATL, and the wave will be monitored in the event it begins to move toward the west. Another area I am going to be watching is currently over central Africa, and I am curious to see what happens as it enters the Atlantic Ocean.
EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Other than what I have mentioned, I am not really looking for a notable increase in activity until around mid month, as information concerning the MJO tends to indicate a more favorable environment by then. If the NAO forecast pans out as well, save any SAL, we could see SST Anomalies in the MDR modify to slightly warmer conditions.
Upon analysis of various Climate Model information regarding the lack of onset of El Nino, the Oceanic Nino Index, SST Anomalies, etc., I have revised my 2014 Hurricane Season Outlook slightly. Based on various factors analyzed, my revised forecast is as follows:
TOTAL STORMS: 11 – 12
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2 – 3
2014 thus far:
TOTAL STORMS : 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 1
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)