HURRICANE BERTHA / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 04, 2014…12:10 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Bertha attains hurricane status.

As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC in Miami, the following information was available:

11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 3
Location: 27.6°N 73.6°W
Moving: N at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb / 29.47 in
Max sustained: 80 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAP
BERTHA 72 HOUR

Albeit the satellite signature of Bertha doesn’t seem that organized…analysis of vorticity maps indicates she is a little better vertically stacked at the moment.  This is attribute to the relaxing of wind shear over the past 2 – 3 hours.  An upper level anticyclone which has been positioned to her west, has been progressing slowly westward, and is forecast to be over Bertha this afternoon.  The upper level outflow has improved do to this, and is noted by the fanning out of the cirrus canopy on the eastern and southern periphery of the hurricane.

BERTHA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

Should the wind shear forecast pan out…I would not be surprised to see Bertha possibly strengthen slightly more in between advisories.  Based on the shear forecast, Bertha does have the short window of opportunity to maintain her current intensity or possibly strengthen slightly.  I do concur with the NHC intensity scheme at the moment, provided the wind shear forecast does not come to fruition.

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/041439.shtml?

Bertha is now heading toward the north around the west side of the subtropical ridge, and into the weakness in the ridge.  I expect this motion to continue for today, with a turn beginning toward the NNE in about 12 hours, if not a little sooner.   Based on analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, I concur with the NHC forecast track which pretty much mimics the 12Z Dynamic Model Track Guidance.  Once Bertha clears the latitude of Bermuda, and begins the NE track, I will be discontinuing updates on her.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
BERTHA DYNAMIC

Elsewhere, I am currently monitoring an area of developing low pressure off the NE Florida coastline associated with a weakening frontal boundary.  Albeit I am sort of apprehensive on any development, this area does have support from the NCEP Multi Model and Ensemble products for development during the next 2 – 5 days.  The current wind shear forecast does not really support development, however being that upper level winds would follow the track this low would take, there could be that ONE possibility this area would begin to develop sub-tropically, retaining mainly baroclinic features.

EAST COAST SATELLITE LOOP

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP

NCEP ENSEMBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY

The Tropical Wave that had exited the African continent yesterday has lost its convection, and has been pretty much stationary.  Satellite loop imagery indicates some cyclonic turning in the wind field.  Upper level winds are not really conducive at the moment due to strong easterly wind shear.  The forecast does however call for upper level winds to become more conducive within the next 96 hours over the CATL, and the wave will be monitored in the event it begins to move toward the west.  Another area I am going to be watching is currently over central Africa, and I am curious to see what happens as it enters the Atlantic Ocean.

METEOSAT LOOP FROM RAMSDIS

EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


Other than what I have mentioned, I am not really looking for a notable increase in activity until around mid month, as information concerning the MJO tends to indicate a more favorable environment by then.  If the NAO forecast pans out as well, save any SAL, we could see SST Anomalies in the MDR modify to slightly warmer conditions.

OLR ANOMALY FORECAST / GFS 200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST


NAO FORECAST

Upon analysis of various Climate Model information regarding the lack of onset of El Nino, the Oceanic Nino Index, SST Anomalies, etc., I have  revised my 2014 Hurricane Season Outlook slightly.  Based on various factors analyzed,  my revised forecast is as follows:

TOTAL STORMS: 11 – 12
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2 – 3

2014 thus far:

TOTAL STORMS : 2
HURRICANES: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 1

 

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to HURRICANE BERTHA / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 04, 2014…12:10 P.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm . Yeah, the satellite presentation of Bertha looks pretty bad. I love that GOES East Visible CONUS Satellite you provided. That view is really clear, and if you click on it you get a moving satellite presentation. Thanks!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Interesting system off Fla. coast. I guess right now…anything goes…especially in Hawaii. Iselle is quite a wicked cyclone…Julio looks promising as well. Thanks as always Senior Chief!!

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