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Good day everyone!
There has been little change in Tropical Storm Bertha since my early update this morning. As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Bertha:
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1
Location: 14.0°N 58.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
NHC FULL ADVISORY
Bertha has been undergoing some shear, and is currently heading into an area where shear has been increasing, and is heading into a TUTT axis. Dry air continues to be a factor for the storm. This should keep any further strengthening in check for today. However, based on my analysis of the wind shear forecast, and the system moving into an area of increased TCHP, as stated in the NHC discussion last night, the warmer sst’s, along with a somewhat colder 500 mb level could allow for slow strengthening, as upper level winds are forecast to become less hostile, especially once the storm leaves the Caribbean. The wind shear forecast at that time indicates upper level winds MAY become pretty favorable over the Bahamas in about 72 hours. Based on this analysis, I concur with the NHC Intensity Forecast…should she survive the drier air. In fact, the last couple of frames indicate the LLC is exposed once again
Bertha continues to move around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and based on the current Forecast Steering Layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 36 hours, before more of a NW occurs. Based on current steering and satellite loop images of varying channels, Bertha continues to head toward a weakness in the ridge located off the SEUS coast and the Bahamas. Based on this, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and prefer the left side of the consensus in the 12Z Dynamic Guidance, and Bertha should begin to recurve after the 5 day period…save any changes in steering.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued for the Lesser and Greater Antilles
LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
Elsewhere, Global models do not indicate any development during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)