TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 01, 2014…11:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

There has been little change in Tropical Storm Bertha since my early update this morning.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT  advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Bertha:

11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1
Location: 14.0°N 58.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 50 mph

HURREVAC BERTHA TRACKING MAP
BERTHA 72 HOUR

NHC FULL ADVISORY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/011449.shtml

Bertha has been undergoing some shear, and is currently heading into an area where shear has been increasing, and is heading into a TUTT axis.  Dry air continues to be a factor for the storm.  This should keep any further strengthening in check for today.  However, based on my analysis of the wind shear forecast, and the system moving into an area of increased TCHP, as stated in the NHC discussion last night, the warmer sst’s, along with a somewhat colder 500 mb level could allow for slow strengthening, as upper level winds are forecast to become less hostile, especially once the storm leaves the Caribbean.  The wind shear forecast at that time indicates upper level winds MAY become pretty favorable over the Bahamas in about 72 hours.  Based on this analysis, I concur with the NHC Intensity Forecast…should she survive the drier air.  In fact, the last couple of frames indicate the LLC is exposed once again

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY RGB / WATER VAPOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL

CURRENT WIND SHEAR

Bertha continues to move around the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and based on the current Forecast Steering Layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 36 hours, before more of a NW occurs.  Based on current steering and satellite loop images of varying channels, Bertha continues to head toward a weakness in the ridge located off the SEUS coast and the Bahamas.  Based on this, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and prefer the left side of the consensus in the 12Z Dynamic Guidance, and Bertha should begin to recurve after the 5 day period…save any changes in steering.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
BERTHA DYNAMIC

Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued for the Lesser and Greater Antilles

LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/011343.shtml

Elsewhere, Global models do not indicate any development during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 01, 2014…11:20 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. originallt says:

    Morning, Storm, is there something “bubbling up” NNE of Western Cuba?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m with LT…TS Blobba not looking so good.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Yup, saw just what you said, the center is exposed again. Doesn’t look that healthy.

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