TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 30, 2014…10:05 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 93L continues to move westward this morning.  Based on the 12Z ATCF FTP data, the following was available on INVEST 93L

 LOCATED: LAT. 9.3N…LONG. 44.7W
MOVEMENT: W 15 – 18 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
PRESSURE: 1012 MB / 29.88 IN.

The NHC in Miami has the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability at HIGH (70%) during the next 48 hours, and HIGH (70%) through day 5

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates convection has become a little more limited over night, as well as an erosion of the southern periphery of the system.

CATL AND INVEST 93L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

RAMSDIS FLOATER

Upon analysis this morning, it was noted 93L had been, and is subject to some northerly shear, and dry air intrusion, which is supported by water vapor imagery, and the presence of outflow boundaries noted in RGB loop images.

The current wind shear map fro CIMSS does indicate the presence of 20 kts of northerly shear at the moment.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

The updated wind shear forecast indicates 93L may be under marginal conditions for the next 36 hours…thereafter, indications are for the redevelopment of the upper level anticyclone over the system.  Based on this, and surrounding dry air…I believe 93L will hold in check until then, and may have a chance to recover once it begins to take a more WNW track, which will lead it to the more favorable upper level conditions.  After about 72 – 78 hours, upper level winds are forecast to become much less conducive.  Based on this analysis, The disturbance may still have a chance to attain Tropical Depression Status, and briefly, Tropical Storm status prior to the onset of less favorable conditions.  Right now, given the uncertainty of whether or not it will survive the dry air, I am in the middle to low end of the Intensity Forecast models projection.

12Z INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
ATCF 93L INTENSITY

The disturbance is still moving to the west as it moves along the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge.  Based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 30 – 36 hours.  After that point in time, the disturbance, should it survive, will begin to feel the weakness in the ridge due to a deep layer trof off the U.S. east coast.  Based on current steering and various satellite loop imagery channels, I believe a slight shift left may be in order, as the ridge has strengthened somewhat, and the orientation a little further west.  Based on analysis of the steering products mentioned, I prefer the southern portion of the 12Z Dynamic Model track guidance from the TVCA track, south.

CURRENT STEERING FOR INVEST 93L

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
93L DYNAMIC

Interests in the Lesser and Greater Antilles should monitor the progress pf this system closely for any significant changes.

Residents along the SEUS coast should monitor this system for any changes to strength and steering patterns, should they change significantly.

I will not have another update until tomorrow a.m.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 30, 2014…10:05 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. dellamom says:

    Gee, this puppy looks like the Little Engine that Could. Gale force winds but not enough convection? I don’t know about you, but if something is strong enough to knock my stuff down and cause power outages, I don’t really care what they call it. Does it seem like this will be yet another weird season? We’ve had a lot of systems in the past few years that just don’t develop, or develop in odd ways, as I recall. Of course, if they are not actual hurricanes that hit land, no matter how much damage is caused, people will still say the system is a bust (just not on this site! :)).

    • Well Darlin, without convection, it can’t really be classified, as the convection is part of the thermodynamic process which makes it tropical…to put it simply without sounding like a meteorology class. These systems derive their energy from the release of latent heat from condensation….with out that, they are just a naked swirl of clouds, with dry, warm air. Actually, as far as a weird season…if we look at it from a meteorological standpoint…not really. Dry air has been a big factor so far, and also as we saw last season…the fact of the Bermuda Azores high having been mainly on the stronger side, and cooler SST Anomalies over the Atlantic, pretty much squashes instability (lift and moisture to make clouds).

  2. originallt says:

    Morning, Storm and all. This morning, Friday, you can really see the low level swirl of 93L is exposed, with the main area of convection, off to the South of it. Do you think it still will develop, Storm?

  3. dellamom says:

    Well, Storm, you said it was going to have bit of a struggle, and it obviously is doing so. But I will keep my eyes on this site for updates based on your additional observations.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. This is looking more and more like one for the fishies?? If it even gains TS status??

  5. Greg goodman says:

    Thankyou mr storm. You are good. I like how you go in detail. Mr storm your personal opinion, do you think this if it’s survives might make it to the gulf?

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