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Good day everyone!
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 93L appears a little less organized in satellite imagery this morning, however it is overall more defined.
Based on the current ATCF FTP information updated at 18Z, the following information was available on the disturbance:
LOCATED: LAT. 9.7N…LONG. 37.3W
MOVEMENT: W 18 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
PRESSURE: 1010 MB / 29.82 IN.
The NHC in Miami has increased the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability to HIGH (70%) during the next 48 hours, and HIGH (80%) through day 5
Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the disturbance is not quite as symmetrical as it was yesterday evening.
Water Vapor loop imagery indicates a possible slight intrusion of dry air at the mid level on the western side of the system, which would tend to arrest strengthening a bit. Another note of interest, the disturbance has picked up forward speed since last night, and is moving west at around 18 mph.
Based on my analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, INVEST 93L has lost the more favorable environment it was experiencing last night, with a bit of northerly shear occurring at the moment. This appears to be a temporary setback, as the current wind shear forecast still forecasts upper level winds to become more conducive over the next 24-36 hours, with somewhat of an upper level anticyclone moving in tandem with the system. Based on this and the dry air, I believe the NHC will hold off on a Tropical Depression designation until the system can regain better structure. The current run of the Intensity Forecast models seem to have come into better agreement on strength, with the majority indicating a strong tropical storm in about 66-72 hours. If the wind shear forecast pans out, this seems reasonable at the moment, however I will not rule out a minimal Category 1 Hurricane.
INVEST 93L continues toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 60-72 hours. Thereafter, based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, the modeling still indicates a fairly good weakness in the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This should induce a WNW motion, and is still indicated in the Dynamic Model track guidance. Based on this, I prefer the TVCC/TVCN track guidance at the moment, albeit I will not rule out a further slight shift left in the guidance if INVEST 93L remains at current intensity today.
Since steering patterns can change in a short time, and with forecast steering maps going out to only 5 – 6 days, residents along the Eastern Seaboard should monitor this system for awareness purposes. Residents in the Lesser and Greater Antilles should monitor this system closely for any significant changes during the next 48 – 72 hours.
I will continue to monitor this system as well, however I may not have an update this evening.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)