TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 29, 2014…7:50 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 93L appears a little less organized in satellite imagery this morning, however it is overall more defined. 

Based on the current ATCF FTP information updated at 18Z, the following information was available on the disturbance:

 

LOCATED: LAT. 9.7N…LONG. 37.3W
MOVEMENT: W 18 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 MPH
PRESSURE: 1010 MB / 29.82 IN.

The NHC in Miami has increased the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability to HIGH (70%) during the next 48 hours, and HIGH (80%) through day 5

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the disturbance is not quite as symmetrical as it was yesterday evening.

CATL AND INVEST 93L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

ATCF SATELLITE IMAGE INVEST 93L

Water Vapor loop imagery indicates a possible slight intrusion of dry air at the mid level on the western side of the system, which would tend to arrest strengthening a bit.  Another note of interest, the disturbance has picked up forward speed since last night, and is moving west at around 18 mph.

WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

Based on my analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, INVEST 93L has lost the more favorable environment it was experiencing last night, with a bit of northerly shear occurring at the moment.  This appears to be a temporary setback, as the current wind shear forecast still forecasts upper level winds to become more conducive over the next 24-36 hours, with somewhat of an upper level anticyclone moving in tandem with the system.  Based on this and the dry air, I believe the NHC will hold off on a Tropical Depression designation until the system can regain better structure.  The current run of the Intensity Forecast models seem to have come into better agreement on strength, with the majority indicating a strong tropical storm in about 66-72 hours.  If the wind shear forecast pans out, this seems reasonable at the moment, however I will not rule out a minimal Category 1 Hurricane.

CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR PRODUCT

GFS 72 HOUR ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST

INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
ATCF 93L INTENSITY

INVEST 93L continues toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 60-72 hours.  Thereafter, based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, the modeling still indicates a fairly good weakness in the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.  This should induce a WNW motion, and is still indicated in the Dynamic Model track guidance.  Based on this, I prefer the TVCC/TVCN track guidance at the moment, albeit I will not rule out a further slight shift left in the guidance if INVEST 93L remains at current intensity today. 

06Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AND TREND
93L DYNAMIC

93L DYNAMIC TREND

Since steering patterns can change in a short time, and with forecast steering maps going out to only 5 – 6 days, residents along the Eastern Seaboard should monitor this system for awareness purposes.  Residents in the Lesser and Greater Antilles should monitor this system closely for any significant changes during the next 48 – 72 hours.

I will continue to monitor this system as well, however I may not have an update this evening.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
OFFICIAL SKYWARN SPOTTER (ADVANCED)

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 29, 2014…7:50 A.M. EDT…WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE AND SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I SHOULD get the bill from insurance company shortly. I should be able to get you something shortly thereafter. I’m on the way to mailbox now. Hopefully…something’s there. Sending this to the gang. Thanks again Senior Chief!!

  2. dellamom says:

    Thanks Storm. You said dry air might be a factor in the short term, and you were right. I must say I like the current track better (sorry East Coast), and hope the jog to the west does not occur. I think I speak for all of us in stating that we understand the limitations on the time you can devote to us and appreciate all you do. Keep safe and healthy, and my prayers to you and yours.

  3. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm. I will be sending you something soon, before I leave to go down to Fla. myself in the next 2 weeks. I’ll be on the East Coast, in the Del Ray Beach area. We’ll spend a week over there.

  4. Teresa says:

    Once again, thanks so much. Have a great day!

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